The only shot defending national champion Michigan has of returning to the College Football Playoff this season with three losses already is to win out.
But the Wolverines are rare double-digit home underdogs on the NCAAF odds Saturday against new Big Ten member and No. 1 Oregon.
| Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: Oregon -14.5 (total 45.5) Expert Prediction in Week 10: Oregon 27, Michigan 13 |
Oregon Ducks -752
Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) can’t clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win but for all intents and purposes can by looking at the rest of its schedule, which is quite easy. The Ducks are off a very impressive 38-9 home win over No. 20 Illinois on Saturday.
Dillon Gabriel
QB Gabriel, a Heisman Trophy candidate, finished 18-of-26 passing for 291 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, plus a rushing touchdown. Oregon reached the end zone on five of its six possessions in the first half, taking a 35-3 lead into halftime. Illinois scored the only touchdown of the second half — just the second touchdown allowed by the UO defense since halftime of the Ohio State game on Oct. 12 — and the Ducks tacked on a field goal in the fourth quarter.
Gabriel also surpassed Timmy Chang (17,072) on the NCAA’s career passing yards list and now has 17,236. Case Keenum holds the record with 19,217. Gabriel also moved up to No. 2 in career touchdown passes with 143, behind Keenum’s 155. It was Gabriel’s 57th career start, most among active FBS quarterbacks and four away from Bo Nix’s FBS record for starts by a QB (61).
Starting QBs for current CFP field based on current standings/AP Poll
— Ryan McCrystal (@Ryan_McCrystal) October 29, 2024
1. Dillon Gabriel
2. Cam Ward
3. Jake Retzlaff
4. Marcel Reed/Conner Weigman
—
5. Carson Beck
6. Drew Allar
7. Will Howard
8. Quinn Ewers
9. Nico Iamaleava
10. Riley Leonard
11. Rocco Becht
12. Maddux Madsen
“I’m chasing wins,” Gabriel said when asked about moving up the record lists. “That’s where I’m at. I don’t want to not give you an answer, but to be quite honest, that’s been the goal of mine for a long time — but now more than ever. You play a long career like I did, and you realize a lot of things. And I choose winning 100 percent of the time.”
Oregon scored more than 30 points for the seventh straight game and the 21st time in the last 22 contests. It went over 500 yards of total offense for the second time this season with 527 (had 546 at Oregon State) and finished with 229 rushing yards, going over 200 yards for the third time this year.
Jordan Burch
The Ducks yet again played without star defensive end Burch, who suffered a knee injury in practice before the Ohio State game. He hasn’t played in a game since but might return Saturday. In Oregon’s first five games of the season, Burch was performing like Oregon’s best defensive player. He had 19 tackles, seven TFLs, five sacks while having defended four passes and recovered a fumble.
The program is 8-0 to start a season for the first time since 2013 and fifth time in program history. It was UO’s third win this season over a team currently ranked in the AP top 25 and it is now 7-1 all-time when ranked No. 1 in the nation. The Ducks have won 101 straight games and are 22-0 under Dan Lanning when allowing 14 points or less. They have won 30 straight games and are 21-0 under Lanning when scoring first. Oregon has won 18 straight games and is 24-1 under Lanning when allowing less than 400 total yards.
Dan Lanning
“Once we’re able to watch the film, we’ll probably assess where we really need to improve,” Lanning said of this week. “But obviously, you know, Michigan’s a good team, they’ve had a lot of success. Obviously, they have a storied history, it’s an exciting game to get to be a part of. That’s what you sign up for when you’re in the Big 10. But traveling there, right? To have the ability to handle travel and go play in a tough environment is going to be a fun challenge for our team.”
^Michigan Wolverines +500
Michigan (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) has very little shot of getting back to the Big Ten game and will have none with a loss here. The Wolverines snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with a 24-17 home win over Michigan State. The Spartans gained 130 yards and had the ball for 13-plus minutes on their first two possessions, but had just a 7-0 lead to show for it and that would prove costly. Michigan State QBQ Aidan Chiles lost a fumble late in the first half that helped Michigan build momentum and earn a 9-7 lead at halftime. The Wolverines wouldn’t trail again.
Colston Loveland
They pulled ahead by two scores with a crucial touchdown with 13:20 remaining. On a first-down play in Michigan State territory, Donovan Edwards handled a toss from quarterback Davis Warren while moving toward the away sideline before launching a pass to a wide-open Colston Loveland in the end zone to move ahead 22-10 in the game’s final frame. Loveland then proceeded to catch the two-point conversion to take a 14-point lead.
Colston Loveland Scouting Report 🔵🟡
— Rookiemendations (@Rookiemendation) October 28, 2024
Position: Tight End
School: University of Michigan
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 245 lbs
High School Recruit: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4-star prospect) by 247Sports
Stats in 2024 So Far
•Receptions: 36
•Yards: 344
•Average: 9.6 yards per reception… pic.twitter.com/aqdgzrU7yw
The game-securing play was Loveland’s second touchdown in a six-catch, 67-yard effort, while Warren completed 13 passes over 19 attempts for 123 yards and one touchdown in the win as he returned to the starting QB role. The Wolverines’ leading rusher was backup QB Alex Orji (six rushes for 64 yards and a touchdown), who helped seal the game with two first-down rushes on the game’s final drive.
Loveland moved into third place all-time in touchdowns among U-M tight ends with his ninth and 10th career scores; he also moved into second all-time in receiving touchdowns for a Michigan tight end in a season with six. Loveland has been the leader or co-leader in receptions for U-M in every game he has played this season (seven), with 42 total catches. Loveland ranks in the top three all-time at U-M in receptions (103), yards (1,295) and TDs (10) among tight ends.
The Tackle Record
U-M posted 6.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks against the Spartans. The Wolverines have had at least six TFL in each of their four Big Ten games, totaling 37 tackles for loss and 17 sacks. Defensive end Josaiah Stewart leads the Wolverine defense with 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss after adding a sack. Stewart has at least a share of a sack in four consecutive games. The Wolverines rank 25th nationally in sacks (2.63 per game). Opponents have struggled to run the ball effectively on the Wolverines, averaging 3.4 yards per carry against the 15th-ranked unit (101 yards per game).
Pro Football Focus grades U-M well in the following categories: overall (25th, 90.3), rushing offense (36th, 84.0), defense (tied-fifth, 92.7), rushing defense (fourth, 92.3), pass rush (first, 91.4), and special teams (28th, 81.9).
This will be the 21st time Michigan has faced the No. 1-ranked team in the Associated Press national rankings. The Wolverines have a 3-16-1 record in those matchups with all three victories coming at Michigan Stadium. U-M has a 3-7-1 home record against the nation’s top-rated team. The Maize and Blue are 0-5 on the road and 0-4 in neutral site/bowl games.
The Last Game
The last meeting against the nation’s top-ranked team came in Columbus during the 2006 season, a 42-39 loss to Ohio State in a battle of the top two teams in the country. The last Michigan victory over the nation’s top ranked team came on Sept. 8, 1984, a 22-14 over No. 1 Miami at Michigan Stadium.
^How to Watch Oregon at Michigan NCAA Football
When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Michigan Stadium
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Oregon vs Michigan Series History
Michigan leads 3-2 all-time but the Ducks won the last meeting 39-7 in Ann Arbor in 2007. Being conference rivals now, they will start playing many years going forward. This marks the first time that Michigan is a double-digit dog since 2017, a streak of 83 straight games.
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2021 Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal
Much of the talk this past offseason was about teams moving to different conferences and a change to the college football playoff system. Both things definitely appear to be happening over the course of the next few years, but for every team, the focus is on the here and now. With Ohio State and Clemson both struggling this season, we are looking at the possibility of a pair of surprise teams perhaps making their way into the top 4. Generally speaking, it usually Power 5 teams who get the call, and since it has been a minute since we’ve had a PAC 12 team in the mix, a lot of people are keeping an eye on the strong start by the Oregon Ducks. This weekend, they will hit the road to face the Stanford Cardinal as an 8-point favorite, with the O/U for this one coming in at 57 ½. Let’s take a closer look at this conference matchup so you can get ready to bet against their NCAAF odds.
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Game Analysis
Oregon vs Stanford Match Info
- When: Saturday, October 2 at 3:30 PM EST
- Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford
- TV: ABC
Why bet on the Oregon Ducks
We have become so used to seeing the PAC 12 falter early in the season that it is a bit of a pleasant surprise to see the Ducks sitting at #3 in the National Rankings. They made it clear that they are in the hunt this season when they went on to road to Ohio State in Week 2 and delivered a stunning 35-28 victory. While the Buckeyes have not looked totally convincing in 2021, that was still a massive win for the Ducks. Oregon has absolutely dominated the proceedings in the PAC 12 over the past few seasons and are 16-3 SU in their last 19 versus conference foes. They are also 13-6 SU in their last 19 versus Stanford. They have been a decent ATS bet on the road at Stanford, covering in 6 of the last 9. The UNDER has hit in 14 of their last 20 on the road overall.
Why bet on the Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal come onto Week 5 of the season with what they would see as a disappointing 2-2 record. They did have a very convincing win over USC in that run, but they are also now just 1-1 in conference play after losing to UCLA last week. If they have hopes of getting to the Conference Championship Game, this is a game that they need in the worst possible way. With that loss to the Bruins, the Cardinal are now 5-1 SU in their last 6 versus the PAC 12, which is not bad at all. They have also been good in the month of October, winning 13 of their last 18 games in spooky season. They have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 and have seen 5 of their last 6 home games go OVER the point total.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
In their wins against USC and Stanford, the Cardinal have shown some offensive prowess, but I don’t think it will be enough to top the Ducks. I like Oregon to win and cover the spread, and I also like the OVER.
Pick: Oregon Ducks 36 Stanford Cardinal 24
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