Want to know a little secret? Handicappers tend to base part of their projections for a college football team on what said team in a bowl game the previous season. In fact, they overrate that aspect of just one game. I’m not saying that’s the only criteria they use, but it’s involved. Don’t fall into that trap. A new season is a fresh start. With that said, here are three 2017 College Football teams and their MyBookie win totals, that I believe are overrated entering the season.
Overrated Teams You Can Bet Against This 2017 College Football Season
Jim Harbaugh doing Jim Harbaugh things. https://t.co/jRIZggDiXf
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) July 25, 2017
Michigan Wolverines (9 Wins)
UM has a terrific coach in Jim Harbaugh, one of the best in college football. The Wolverines also were 10-3 last year, losing a terrific Orange Bowl against a very good Florida State team that will likely be preseason No. 2 in the nation. So why am I not high on this team? Because UM brings back the fewest number of starters in the nation. One is quarterback Wilton Speight, but he might not even start in 2017. This week, Harbaugh said the fourth-year junior remains in a three-way tie with redshirt freshman Brandon Peters and fifth-year senior John O’Korn to be the Wolverines’ starter entering Monday’s first practice.How Did Wilton Speight Do as QB Last Season?
Speight started 12 of 13 games last season for the Wolverines after beating out O’Korn in preseason camp. The 6-foot- 6, 243-pound Speight completed 61.6% of his passes (204 for 331), throwing for 2,538 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In the losses at Iowa, at Ohio State and vs. Florida State in the Orange Bowl, Speight completed 55 percent of his passes for just 485 yards (4.9 yards per attempt) and was intercepted four times while throwing just 3 touchdowns. Peters has emerged as the fan favorite due to his spring game performance and he probably has the highest ceiling. UM will go 8-4.Latest 2017 College Football Betting Trends
- Odds to Win 2018 National Championship: +1200
- Odds to Win Big Ten Conference: +180
- Odds to Win Big Ten East Division: +300
- 2017-18 Regular Season Win Total: O 9 -140 / U 9 +110
Wisconsin Badgers (10.5 Wins)
I feel like this has to be a misprint on Mybookie.ag: 10.5 wins? That seriously can’t be right, even with the under a -155 favorite. If it is, go bet the ranch on the under. Oh, sure, the Badgers will be a good team and finish something like 8-4, maybe 9-3, in the regular season. But 10.5 wins? Wisconsin had one of the nation’s top defenses last year but lost star linebacker TJ Watt, younger brother of Houston Texans superstar JJ Watt. Last year, Watt finished with 63 total tackles, including 38 solo stops. He had 15.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks, the fifth-highest single-season total in school history. He was first-team All-Big Ten and an All-American. Wisconsin will be under its third defensive coordinator in as many seasons. Jim Leonhard was promoted from within to run the unit after Justin Wilcox was named head coach at California.Who Will Be the QB this Season?
QB Alex Hornibrook returns, but he’s nothing special. Last year, Hornibrook started nine games, though ended up splitting time most of the season with Bart Houston, who is out of eligibility, leaving Hornibrook as the default starter. Houston put up better numbers than Hornibrook (58.6% completion percentage, nine touchdowns, seven interceptions with a 125.8 quarterback rating for the freshman). Gone are running back Corey Clement, who rushed for 1,375 yards and 15 touchdowns as a senior, and jack-of- all-trades Dare Ogunbowale. Taking their place are Bradrick Shaw and Chris James. Shaw averaged 5.2 yards per carry in limited action last season. At a minimum, UW loses at BYU, at Nebraska and home to Michigan.Latest 2017 College Football Betting Trends
- Odds to Win 2018 National Championship: +4000
- Odds to Win Big Ten Conference: +330
- Odds to Win Big Ten West Division: -160
- 2017-18 Regular Season Win Total: O 10½ +125 / U 10½ -155
Five Bold NCAA Predictions for the 2017 College Football Season
Arkansas Razorbacks (6.5 Wins)
OK, maybe it’s a stretch to call Arkansas overrated since it only has a total of 6.5 wins. But this is all about betting the right side of the total, and I’d go under here. The Razorbacks play in the ultra-tough SEC West as it is, and they will not have leading rusher Rawleigh Williams this season. He retired from football after suffering a second neck injury during the Hogs’ spring game. Williams rushed for 1,360 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and he finished as the SEC’s leading rusher. While the injury it wasn’t reportedly as serious as the one that cost him half of his freshman season in 2015, it was enough of a concern that Williams had to leave the sport. Sophomore Devwah Whaley likely will take over as the featured back, but after that there isn’t much experience at all. Last year, Whaley rushed for 602 yards on 110 carries. He hit a 75-yard run and had three touchdowns on the season. The only other back with experience on the Hogs is TJ Hammonds and he has been moved to slot receiver.So What Does This Mean for the Razorbacks?
This likely means that Arkansas passes more. That might not be a bad thing as last year, returning starter Austin Allen’s 3,430 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes each ranked fifth in single-season school history. Of his 25 touchdown passes, 19 came inside the red zone, which led the SEC and tied for 10th in the FBS. He became the first quarterback in school history and one of just four in the SEC since 2000 to throw multiple touchdown passes in each of the first seven games of a season. Still, I only see 6-6 for this team. The Hogs will lose to TCU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn and LSU.Latest 2017 College Football Betting Trends
- Odds to Win 2018 National Championship: TBA
- Odds to Win SEC Conference: +4000
- Odds to Win SEC West Division: +3300
- 2017-18 Regular Season Win Total: O 6½ -150 / U 6½ +120
