Top Teams That Won’t Make It to the College Football Playoff 2024

College football playoffs are expanding from four to 12 teams this season. The SEC and Big Ten, the two most dominant leagues, could potentially have nine teams in the field. Five top conference champions get automatic bids.

Here are two power schools I don’t believe make the field and their current odds to reach the CFP.

How is it Works?

The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded Nos. 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round. The higher-seeded teams will play host in their first round games. The 13-member selection committee remains in place. There are of course now four power conferences with the Pac-12 imploding: Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 and it’s very conceivable that the non-power leagues, ACC and Big 12 get just one school in each – leaving the rest for the SEC and Big Ten. There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify. With that in mind, let’s see the two teams that won’t gonna make it.

Florida State Seminoles Playoff Pick +360

This is somewhat cheating regarding the defending ACC champion Seminoles – they ran the table last regular season and beat Louisville in the conference title game yet were left out of the playoff because of a late-season injury to star QB Jordan Travis. It was the first time an unbeaten power conference champion had been left out of the CFP and was the final straw for FSU to sue the ACC in an attempt to leave the league. That may take years, however.

Florida State’s odds to make the CFP were significantly lower but then the Noles were stunned 24-21 in Ireland last Saturday as 11-point favorites against ACC foe Georgia Tech in the first game of the new season. Aidan Birr made a 44-yard field goal as time expired for the Jackets in their first win over a top-10 opponent since a 22-16 victory over the Seminoles in October 2015.

FSU tied the game 21-21 with 6:33 remaining in the fourth quarter forcing the Yellow Jackets to begin what would prove to be the last drive of the game at their own 25. Tech drove 49 yards on 12 plays and milked every second off the clock to set up the game-winning field goal. The FSU defensive line was viewed as one of the ACC’s best but did not record a sack and allowed Tech to run at will with 190 yards rushing.

That loss leaves the Seminoles with very little wiggle room to reach the playoff. They are still No. 10 in the AP Top 25 but that’s simply because there hasn’t been a new poll after the light Week Zero schedule. FSU should bounce back Saturday and beat unranked Georgia Tech in the Noles’ home opener as they are 15.5-point favorites and as long as FSU still wins the ACC it will be fine. But now even reaching the league title game will be a challenge with one ACC loss and still tough league games at SMU, vs. Clemson and at No. 19 Miami to go.

Here College Football 🏈 Fans. We’re just 1 week away from the start of the 2024 @NCAAFootball Season.

Here’s the AP Top 25 Preseason Rankings.

1) @GeorgiaFootball
2) @OhioStateFB
3) @oregonfootball
4) @TexasLonghorns
5) @AlabamaFTBL
6) @OleMissFB
7) @NDFootball
8)…

— Sports and Wrestling Guy Joe (@JoeMungel1977) August 18, 2024

Michigan Wolverines Playoff Pick +145

The defending national champions are poised to take a fairly big step back after losing Coach Jim Harbaugh, quarterback JJ McCarthy, running back Blake Corum and plenty more to the NFL after last season. There at least will be some coaching consistency as Harbaugh’s former offensive coordinator, Sherrone Moore, is now in charge. He served as UM’s acting head coach for four games in 2023 while Harbaugh was suspended and led the team to four wins, including over Ohio State in the regular season finale to earn a third straight trip to the Big Ten title game, which Michigan of course won.

The Wolverines have won three straight games over the bitter rival Buckeyes, but I absolutely all but guarantee that ends this year as Ohio State is truly loaded and hosts in late November. There’s also the fact that Michigan will have a target on its back all season. Since the start of the 2021 season, U-M has been favored in all but three games (Ohio State 2021, Georgia CFP in 2021, at Ohio State in 2022) and only lost two times (Michigan State 2021, TCU CFP 2022) when it was projected to win. According to Moore, it’s because the Wolverines have “a really mature culture” which helps the team make sure it doesn’t overlook any opponent.

We still don’t know as of this writing who starts at quarterback for Saturday’s opener at home vs. Fresno State, which is a 21.5-point dog. Redshirt sophomore Alex Orji, the team’s presumed starter, hasn’t fully separated from his competitor, former walk-on QB Davis Warren. Jack Tuttle, in his seventh year, began spring camp in the mix, but has battled injury in recent months. Moore said he will name his starter either Friday night or early Saturday.

Orji is an excellent athlete who has posted a 41-inch vertical, 4.06-second short shuttle and elite strength for his size. That skill set gives Michigan immense flexibility offensively, especially when it comes to the QB run and option looks. At 6 feet 3 and 235 pounds, the Texas native is seen as perhaps the most athletic quarterback in college football. It likely will be him.

Michigan will certainly beat Fresno State but has an incredibly tough slate that includes No. 4 Texas, No. 23 USC, No. 3 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State.

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