Bet 2024 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State - NCAAF Expert Analysis

Bet 2024 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State – NCAAF Expert Analysis

The second of two college football bowl games on Monday is from the blue turf in Boise as Northern Illinois of the Mid-American Conference faces Fresno State of the Mountain West in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl with the Huskies as short favorites on the NCAAF odds.

Both clubs will be missing their starting QB among other players.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: NIU -3.5 (total 39)
Expert Prediction: Northern Illinois 23, Fresno State 20
 

How to Bet 2024 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl & TV Info

Moneylines: Northern Illinois -171 vs. Fresno State +139
When: Monday, 2:30 PM ET
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+

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Northern Illinois Analysis

Thomas Hammock’s sixth NIU team began the season with the most momentous win in program history, a 16-14 shocker against a Notre Dame team that is I the playoff. The season got bumpier from there as injuries took their toll on the Huskies’ offense. But the defense remained sturdy most of the way, and NIU won three of its final four games to secure a third bowl bid in four seasons.

The Transfers

Several players are in the transfer portal led by QB Ethan Hampton, who will play at Illinois. He completed 58.3% of his passes for 1,600 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions this year. Hampton originally committed to transfer to Wake Forest and coach Dave Clawson. But two days after that, Clawson stepped away from coaching and Hampton decommitted from the ACC program. Walk-on redshirt freshman Josh Holst will get the nod under center as he did earlier this season when Hampton got injured.

Josh Holst

Holst appeared in six games this season, starting in losses against Toledo (13-6) and Ball State (25-23). He also appeared in the Bowling Green game, entering after Hampton was hurt in the second quarter and trailing 7-3. The Huskies won 17-7, and Holst had a 22-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter that put them ahead for the first time. That was his lone rushing touchdown on 33 attempts this season, netting 165 yards and 5 yards per carry. He completed 58% of his passes with no touchdowns and an interception.

“It kind of feels the same, really, because I’ve been preparing like that all year,” Holst said of starting the bowl game. “[Hampton] was getting the starting reps toward the end of the year, I got some in the middle of the year. It’s not really any different because I’ve been acting like if I get in the game, I need to play all year. That’s how most people are in the two-deep, maybe three-deep. You need to prepare to play.”

Devonte O’Malley

NIU placed two defensive players on the 2024 All-MAC First Team. Defensive tackle O’Malley ranked third in the conference and in the top 25 nationally with eight sacks. Nate Valcarcel made 50 tackles from his safety position and led NIU with eight pass breakups and two interceptions. The duo helped the Huskies lead the MAC in total defense, sacks, third down conversion percentage and passing defense while holding opponents to less than 18 points per game.

Dolphin

Eleven current Huskies have played in 50 or more games at NIU while the defense features seven players with at least 100 career tackles, led by senior Jaden Dolphin’s 208 stops. NIU is the only team in the FBS that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season, or in its last 16 games, dating back to the 2023 game at Central Michigan. Opponents have averaged just 6.6 points per game in the second half versus NIU this year. The Huskies have three second half shutouts (Akron, Bowling Green, Central Michigan) and have not allowed a second half touchdown in its last three games.

NIU has held 20 of its last 25 opponents over the last two seasons to 25 points or less, including 11 of its 12 2024 foes with Western Michigan the only team to surpass 25 points against the Huskies this season.

Northern Illinois in the Bowls

The Huskies make their 21st bowl appearance all-time and 16th as a Division I Football Bowl Subdivision team. NIU is bowl eligible for the 19th time this century and has played in 15 bowls games since 2003, more than any other Mid-American Conference team. There are 16 seniors listed as starters on the Huskies’ depth chart for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and 22 on the depth chart, including all three specialists. NIU will not have any player start the bowl game who has not started a game before.

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Fresno State Analysis

The Bulldogs are led by interim head coach Tim Skipper. He got the job this summer when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down for health reasons. Skipper, Fresno State (6-6, 4-3 MW) finished fourth in the Mountain West this season. Skipper was passed over for the full-time job, though, as the school hired former USC assistant and ex-North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz, but Skipper is staying on through the bowl.

Mac Dalena

Eleven players were named All-Mountain West, including first-team wide receiver Dalena. He ranked third in the Mountain West with eight touchdowns receiving and 16.33 yards per catch. He was fourth in the Mountain West with 947 yards receiving and 79.92 yards per game. Dalena is among several FSU players in the transfer portal but says he expects to play.

Mikey Keene

However, starting QB Keene will not play as he’s in the transfer portal with several other starters also out. This past season, Keene threw for 2,892 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while completing over 70% of his passes. Keene has one year of eligibility remaining. Due to Keene entering the portal, the Bulldogs are left with five quarterbacks on the roster with a combined eight career pass attempts between Joshua Wood and Jayden Mandal. No quarterback currently with the Bulldog program has started a game at the collegiate level. Two of Fresno’s listed starting receivers for the bowl game have four combined receptions on the season.

Bryson Donelson

This season, the Bulldogs have had 35 different players start at one point on the year. Fresno State did not lose starters at the following positions: running back, tight end, safety, defensive end, linebacker, kicker and punter. True freshman running back Bryson Donelson has 62 carries for 380 yards and two touchdowns. He became the first freshman RB to have a 100-yard performance for the Bulldogs since 2017. He was the MW Freshman of the Week on Nov. 25.

Devo Bridges

Defensive end Bridges was a member of the All-Mountain West Second Team. He led MW defensive linemen with 5.5 tackles per game in conference play. Led by Bridges, the Bulldogs were best in the Mountain West in pass defense efficiency (111.22) and held opponents to a 54.1 completion percentage, also tops in the conference.

Fresno State has had seven one-score games in 2024, and is 2-5 in those games. Seven one-score games are the third most from around the FBS, and the second most in the Mountain West behind Nevada with eight.

The Streak

FSU looks for its sixth straight bowl win at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. With a win, Fresno State will have its fourth-straight winning season, its longest since a four-season streak from 2007-10 (excluding the 3-3 COVID season). With the setting of the Idaho Potato Bowl being the blue turf at the home of Boise State, Fresno State is no stranger to playing on The Blue. The Bulldogs have won two of their last four trips to The Blue, both Mountain West Championship wins over Boise State.

Although his first trip to Boise as a Bulldog, senior safety Dean Clark has played in the Idaho Potato Bowl having appeared in the 2021 game when he was at Kent State. Clark had a career-best 13 tackles against Wyoming in that game.

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Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Series History

The nation’s northern-most bowl game, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, traditionally features a Mountain West vs. Mid-American Conference (MAC) matchup. The Mountain West has been represented in nine of the last 11 games, while the MAC has earned a spot in the game 11 of the last 14 years. The game will be a rematch of the 2010 version when NIU defeated Fresno State 40-17 – the last meeting between the schools. The win marks the Huskies’ only and the Bulldogs’ last appearance in the event. Fresno State defeated Virginia 37-34 in a 2004 overtime thriller and downed Georgia Tech 40-28 in 2007. It’s the sixth all-time meeting between these schools with NIU leading 3-2.

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2023 Potato Bowl: Georgia State Vs Utah State
 

Bowl season is now in full swing, and while the games have been coming rather sporadically, we will see a busier schedule on Saturday. MyBookie Sportsbook 2023/24 Bowls Odds for College Football Game Lines | Georgia State Vs Utah State Armed Potato Bowl Game 2023

All told, there are no less than 7 games to choose from once the weekend rolls around. The games that come around in the early part of bowl season are always a little tougher to predict given that they tend to feature teams that not too many of us followed in any great detail over the course of the season. You also have to take into account that some teams might be more inspired to win than others, which is damn near impossible to figure out. Both of these teams finished the season at 6-6, so there is the goal of having a winning year being dangled like a carrot. The Aggies are favored by 2 ½, with the point total for this one set at a rather lofty 59 ½.

 

Georgia State Vs Utah State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Game Info

When: Saturday, December 23 at 3:30 PM EST
Where: Albertson’s Stadium, Boise
TV: ESPN

 

Georgia State Panthers

It’s hard to imagine that the Panthers were 6-1 at some point in the season when you consider how things finished up for them. They seemed to take their foot off the gas as soon as they became bowl eligible, losing 5 in a row to close things out. The defense, although not totally to blame, has to shoulder a lot of the burden, as they surrendered an average of over 40 PPG through that 5-game losing skid. You do have to wonder how they are going to pull out of that slump and find a way to slow down the Aggies offense on Saturday. The Panthers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 4 games, failing to cover in all but one of the games that they started as the underdog. The UNDER has hit in 6 of their last 9 games overall.

 

Utah State -2.5 | -140 | U 59.5

Georgia State +2.5 | +120 | O 59.5


 

Utah State Aggies

The Aggies played the final month of the season under a fair bit of pressure. They were 3-5 heading into their final 4 games of the season, with a bowl spot looking like a bit of a longshot. They ended up going 3-1 through those final 4 games, becoming bowl eligible in the last game of the season, which included a 44-41 thriller over New Mexico in the final game. That win, as well as the way they played through the final month, must have the Aggies on a high, which could well carry over into this one. While you might already be penciling in the Aggies for the win, it is worth noting that they have struggled versus teams from the Sun Belt, going 2-11 ATS I the last 13 meetings. The OVER has hit in 8 of their last 11 games overall.

 

Potato Bowl Score Prediction Georgia State Vs Utah State

When it comes to bowl games, I think there is a lot to be said about current form. Yes, the Aggies have struggled against Sun Belt teams, but the Panthers were brutal coming down the stretch, and you do have to wonder if they are committed to pulling out of that slump.

Georgia State Panthers 24, Utah State Aggies 35

 

Georgia State Last 5

@ Old Dominion – L25-24
@ LSU – L56-14
vs Appalachian State – L42-14
vs James Madison – L42-14
@ GA Southern – L44-27

Utah State Last 5

@ New Mexico – W44-41
vs Boise State – L45-10
vs Nevada – W41-24
@ San Diego State – W32-24
@ San Jose State – L42-21

 

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