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The current betting favorite to be the first major conference college football coach to be fired this season is Florida’s Billy Napier, and those odds will only get shorter if Napier’s Gators lose at home in their season opener vs. Miami.

We pick that game and another big Week 1 matchup for a parlay.

Expert Parlay Pick: Miami moneyline (-135) + LSU moneyline (-200) at +160.

No. 19 Miami at Florida (+2.5, 54.5)

Kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET from Gainesville on Aug. 31 and televised by ABC. These rivals really should play every year, but they rarely do as they are in separate power conferences. The Gators are fairly banged up at receiver and top running back Montrell Johnson has been easing back from knee surgery he underwent earlier this summer, but Coach Billy Napier expects Johnson to return to practice in a modified form soon, and he feels good about his progress for the opener.

Johnson ran for 817 yards and five touchdowns in 2023, while adding on 30 receptions for 236 yards and a touchdown. He followed from Louisiana after his freshman season when Napier took the Florida job. Johnson entered preseason camp with a renewed vision, knowing he would not split carries with Travis Etienne, who transferred this off season to bitter rival Georgia. Etienne racked up 700 yards on the ground the last two seasons and was Florida’s team’s leader in rushing touchdowns (8) in 2023.

Florida does return one of the SEC’s better quarterbacks in sixth-year senior Graham Mertz. The Wisconsin transfer last year in his first season at UF set career highs in completions (261), passing yards (2,903), touchdown passes (20), completion percentage (72.9), passing yards per game (263.9) and efficiency (157.8). Mertz threw only three interceptions and set a program record by throwing 239 consecutive passes without an interception.

UF is hosting Miami in Gainesville for the first time since 2008. The Gators enter on a five-game skid for the first time since 2017 & is looking to avoid its first six-game losing streak since 2013.

Miami was one of the big winners of the transfer portal in landing excellent QB Cam Ward from Washington State and running back Damien Martinez from Oregon State. Ward has the most passing yards (13,825) by any QB across FBS/FCS combined since debuting at Incarnate Word in 2020. The Hurricanes lead the all-time series 29-27 and 12-9 in Gainesville. It also leads 5-2 since the series was reignited in 2000.

No. 23 USC vs. No. 13 LSU (-6, 64)

There is Sunday football in Week 1 as this matchup on Sept. 1 is from a neutral site in Las Vegas and televised by ABC in prime-time at 7:30 ET – it’s officially called the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic. It’s the third meeting all-time between the schools (USC won in 1979 & LSU won in 1984) and first-ever meeting between head coaches Lincoln Riley & Brian Kelly.

Both teams are replacing a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback in USC’s Caleb Williams and LSU’s Jaydan Daniels. Williams was the 2022 Heisman winner who went No. 1 overall in this year’s NFL Draft to Chicago. Daniels was the 2023 winner, who went No. 2 overall to Washington.

USC named its Daniels replacement this week in Miller Moss to no surprise. He was Williams’ backup last season but started in the Holiday Bowl win over Louisville as Williams opted out and threw six touchdowns, setting a school record for touchdown passes in a bowl game and touchdown passes thrown by a USC quarterback in his first start. Overall, Miller has completed 66-of-92 passes for 914 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games and one start. The delay in naming Moss revealed USC’s confidence in now-backup Jayden Maiava, who transferred from UNLV in the spring and stood out during USC’s spring game. Maiava passed for 3,085 yards with 17 touchdowns during his true freshmen campaign for the Rebels.

“Miller had the best spring,” Riley said at Big Ten Media Days. “There’s no question if we were playing at that point that he would have been the starter. … But just consistently, Miller was still the best and the guy we feel like gives this team the best chance to win and play well.”

Lincoln Riley has named Miller Moss our starting quarterback. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/tn8W4SLT9u
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) August 19, 2024

Garrett Nussmeier will take over for Daniels at LSU and this will be just the second start of his career. He got his first start last season in the bowl game against Wisconsin. Nussmeier led the Tigers to a win and finished the game going 31-for-45 throwing for 395 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. USC might cover, but we expect LSU to prevail with a better overall roster.