We have college football action again this Tuesday night with the best matchup of the three games likely from the Sun Belt Conference as defending league champion Troy visits South Alabama, which is a double-digit favorite on the NCAAF odds in the “Battle of the Belt.”
Troy at South Alabama: 2024 NCAAF Expert Analysis in Week 8
| Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: South Alabama -12.5 (total 56.5) Expert Prediction in Week 6: South Alabama 30, Troy 23 |
Troy Trojans +370
Troy (1-5) has had to use three different QBs this season due to injury, and it’s not 100 percent clear who might start Tuesday. The Trojans have been off since a 38-17 home loss to Texas State on Oct. 3. With usual starting QB Goose Crowder missing that one, Tucker Kilcrease got the call. Kilcrease completed 17 of 28 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 13 rushes for negative seven yards.
Tucker Kilcrease 🎯 ✌️ pic.twitter.com/ps0KovJyDg
— Troy Trojans Football 8x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) October 10, 2024
Kilcrease was solid outside a fumble in the first quarter, completing 60.7 percent of passes and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. The sophomore got banged up during the contest and ceded a pair of drives to Matthew Caldwell, but Kilcrease managed to close out the game.
Mojo Dortch recorded his first career touchdown reception on a 7-yard strike by Kilcrease in the second quarter, while Devonte Ross added a 19-yard touchdown for his seventh score of the year in the fourth quarter. Those seven touchdowns have been from an average of 41.69 yards. Damien Taylor ranks 18th nationally among running backs per PFF with an 83.6 rush grade (min. 60 rushes) and is eighth averaging 4.82 yards after contact.
Scott Taylor Renfroe ended Troy’s final drive before the half with a 42-yard field goal, the 26th of his career. Renfroe moved into sole possession of 10th place all-time in Troy history in career field goals made. Troy has forced 195 turnovers since the start of the 2016 season, which is the second most in the country. The Trojans forced three turnovers against Texas State, the 33rd time since 2016 with three or more turnovers in a game, the most in the country.
Troy’s games in, 2024 have averaged just 120.0 combined plays, the eighth fewest in the country (Kentucky, 112.6). Troy’s defense has started drives on its side of the field seven times this season (11 percent of possessions); of those drives, Troy’s defense is allowing just an average of 3.0 points per drive.
Trojan’s seven-game road Sun Belt winning streak is the second-longest active road conference winning streak in the country (Tulane, 9). Troy has not allowed a touchdown in eight quarters against South Alabama in Hancock Whitney Stadium. Troy has held South Alabama to 19 points or fewer in six of the last seven meetings.
^South Alabama Jaguars -526
South Alabama (2-4) comes off an 18-16 loss at Arkansas State on Oct. 5 on Clune Van Andel’s 34-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. Van Andel’s kick was at the end of a 10-play, 60-yard drive that lasted 1:35. ASU QB Jaylen Raynor completed six straight to start the drive and ended it 6 for 7 for 61 yards. He took a knee for a 1-yard loss to set up Van Andel’s kick.
Offensively, Jamaal Pritchett was the star for the Jaguars with seven catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Gio Lopez found him for a 75-yard strike in the third quarter to give the Jags their first touchdown of the night, and then again in the back of the end zone with less than two minutes to play on a third and 25 from the 26-yard line. Kentrel Bullock served as the team’s leading rusher with 66 yards.
The throw. The Catch. 🤌 https://t.co/A9QIFwfA7J pic.twitter.com/RzImQgEBtu
— South Alabama Football 🏈 (@SouthAlabamaFB) October 6, 2024
The Jaguar defense performed admirably, surrounding just 66 rushing yards for the game, and only allowing the Red Wolves to find the end zone one time on the night. Blayne Myrick led the defensive attack with 13 total tackles, including three for loss. Courtney McBride Jr. and Tyler Thomas also pitched in sacks, and the team totaled 10 tackles for loss.
“It was a different one to lose because we had so many opportunities early,” said head coach Major Applewhite. “We had turnovers in the red area with tons of penalties on offense, and it got us. I’m very proud of our defense. I know we gave up a field goal to lose the game, but they kept us in the game, and I’m proud of the way we are improving on that side of the ball.”
Tuesday’s matchup against the Trojans will mark South Alabama’s first home game since Sept. 12 when the Jaguars defeated Northwestern State 87-10. USA has played three straight games on the road, and four of its last five contests have been away from home.
South Alabama ranks first in the Sun Belt in total offense at 466.2 yards per game. The Jaguars have the top rushing attack in the league at 202.5 yards per contest, while the passing attacks ranks fourth among Sun Belt Conference schools. Pritchett ranks among the leaders nationally with six TD catches and leads the nation in punt return average at 24.5 yards per return. Lopez is one of 16 quarterbacks nationally to throw one or fewer interceptions this season.
Opposing offenses this season have just a 50-percent touchdown success rate when entering the red zone against South Alabama’s defense. In 24 trips to the red zone in 2024, USA opponents have scored 12 touchdowns. The Jaguars have surrendered seven field goals and earned red zone stops on five of those trips inside the 20-yard line. South Alabama is plus-six in turnover margin this season, which ranks 12th nationally.
^Troy at South Alabama NCAA Football Info
When: Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala.
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
^
Troy vs South Alabama Series History
Last year, Troy beat visiting South Alabama 28-10. Gunnar Watson threw three touchdown passes to Chris Lewis and Kimani Vidal ran for 125 yards and a TD. Vidal, on fourth-and-goal, scored on a 1-yard run that capped a 16-play, 75-yard drive that took nearly-9 minutes off the clock and made it 21-10 with 3:12 to play. Overall, Troy leads the “Battle of the Belt” series 9-3. ^
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