Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Lines NCAA Football Expert Analysis

Wednesday marks the first day/night of college football’s postseason with two bowl games.

And we will look at the first kick as Western Kentucky of Conference USA faces James Madison of the Sun Belt from the Boca Raton Bowl in Florida, with the Dukes as TD favorites despite playing without their starting QB.

How to Bet Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Lines NCAA Football

Moneylines: Western Kentucky +216 vs. James Madison -275
When: Wednesday, 5:30 PM ET
Where: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Fla.
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
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Bet on Western Kentucky

We last saw Western Kentucky (8-5) losing in the Conference USA title game to Jacksonville State, 52-12, on Dec. 6. The Gamecocks, beaten by the Hilltoppers just six days earlier on the road, jumped out to a 14-3 lead in the opening quarter and kept their foot on the gas the rest of the night.

Boca Raton Bowl Captains

@Cmatthews_12
@marshaljackson9
@D_McCray95

presented by @StewartRichey pic.twitter.com/pvc6lc6PqA

— WKU Football (@WKUFootball) December 17, 2024

Really, the only bright spot for WKU was Lucas Carneiro’s 54-yard field goal that tied for the second-longest in program history and tied his career high. He improved to 6-for-6 from 50-plus yards this season with the make. He is now 17-18 on field goals this season, with a program-record 17 consecutive makes. Likewise, he is the only CUSA kicker to go 6-for-6 from 50-plus yards in a season since 1996, while only four others have gone at least 3-for-3.

Lucas Carneiro

Carneiro was named the CUSA Special Teams Player of the Year and QB Caden Veltkamp the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year. Carneiro was named CUSA’s Special Teams Player of the Week three times, and he was the only kicker in the league that was named a semifinalist for the Lou Groza Award.

Caden Veltkamp

Veltkamp replaced injured starter TJ Finley in WKU’s third game and has started each game since. He has completed 66.6% of his throws for 2,806 yards and 23 touchdowns, and has rushed for 162 yards and seven scores on 109 attempts.

Veltkamp ranks first in CUSA in points responsible for, first in points responsible for per game, second in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, second in completion percentage and second in efficiency. Nationally, Veltkamp ranks 21st in completion percentage, 25th in passing efficiency, 22nd in passing touchdowns, 15th in points responsible for and 17 in points responsible for per game. WKU had a league-high nine players named to the All-CUSA First or Second Team as well.

Hosea Wheeler

Defensive tackle Wheeler and defensive back Upton Stout joined Carneiro on the First Team. Wheeler ranks second on the team in total tackles with 74, while adding five tackles for loss, two sacks, two quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery, as well as two blocked kicks. He is first in CUSA in tackles from a defensive tackle, while his two blocked kicks are also first in the league and fourth nationally. Stout is one of the premier defensive backs in CUSA and the country. He has recorded 52 tackles, with 7.5 for loss and a sack, plus an interception, a pass breakup and three quarterback hurries.

The Record

The 2024 Boca Raton Bowl marks WKU’s 11th bowl game in the past 13 seasons. It marks the sixth consecutive bowl game appearance under Coach Tyson Helton. WKU is one of 12 programs to have played in a bowl game each season since 2019 that is also bowl eligible in 2024. The Hilltoppers are one of just seven teams nationally that have won a bowl game in each of the last three seasons. WKU’s seven bowl wins in the last 10 years are behind only Georgia (9), Alabama (8) and Wisconsin (8) during that timeframe.

The program is familiar with its upcoming bowl destination, having played in and won the Boca Raton Bowl in both 2016 and 2021. WKU beat Memphis in the 2016 game, 51-31, and Appalachian State, 59-38, in its last Boca Raton Bowl appearance. Last season, WKU beat Old Dominion in overtime of the Famous Toastery Bowl, 38-35, after overcoming a 28-0 first-half deficit – the fourth-largest comeback ever in a bowl game.

Several WKU starters have entered the transfer portal, but many of them still are likely to play – including Veltkamp.

Bet on James Madison

James Madison (8-4) ended the season with back-to-back losses, last taking the field on Nov. 30 and losing its home finale 35-33 in double OT to eventual Sun Belt champion Marshall. After the teams traded touchdown drives in the fourth, Marshall’s potential game-winning field goal was snuffed by a bad hold to force overtime.

Game Review

Field goals by both teams sent the game to double overtime, where JMU reclaimed the lead, at 33-27, on an Alonza Barnett III touchdown pass to Wayne Knight. The two-point try was no good, and on Marshall’s possession, a third-down conversion set up a Tyshawn Chapman 10-yard touchdown run. With the game on the line, Braylon Braxton found Charles Montgomery for the two pointer to give Marshall the win and the Sun Belt East Division title. JMU out-gained Marshall by a 382-261 margin, which included a 244-141 advantage in the run game.

The Rankings

After a historic season last year in which the Dukes entered the FBS, won 11 games, quickly earned an AP poll ranking and found themselves in a bowl game, the second year could have easily been a regression. Instead, JMU lost coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and stayed very competitive under Bob Chesney. The Dukes’ defense is among the best in the nation. JMU ranks 11th in stop rate, allowing 1.57 points per drive, which is better than playoff teams Penn State, Oregon, Clemson and SMU.

Offensive linemen Pat McMurtrie and Cole Potts, defensive lineman Eric O’Neill and cornerback Terrence Spence were all named First-Team All-Sun Belt.

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Terrence Spence has been named a Second Team All-American by the Football Writers Association of America!

https://t.co/zxRONJLO4U#GoDukes pic.twitter.com/3tRxGmTq1j

— JMU Football (@JMUFootball) December 17, 2024

Eric O’Neill

O’Neill, one of the nation’s premier pass rushers, wrapped up the season, ranking top-10 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. He ranked fifth in the FBS with 12.0 sacks, while also ranking sixth with 17.5 tackles for loss. Spence has 25 solo tackles, seven pass deflections, a forced fumble and five interceptions (tied for third among FBS players). James Madison leads the nation in turnover margin, having forced 26, including 17 interceptions, and Spence has been a crucial part of its pass defense, which has allowed an average of 198 passing yards per game.

Pat McMurtrie

McMurtrie and Potts helped JMU rank fifth in the Sun Belt in total offense (408.8) and rushing offense (189.8). Despite losing two of the team’s top-three running backs, JMU’s rushing attack averaged better than 210 yards over the final five games, including a season-high 244 versus Marshall. JMU had six 200-yard rushing games in 2024, as opposed to only having two a season ago.

Alonza Barnett III

However, QB Barnett III, an All-Sun Belt Honorable Mention pick after throwing for 26 TDs and rushing for another seven, was hurt in the regular-season finale vs. Marshall and won’t play in the bowl. With Barnett and Washington State transfer Dylan Morris both out, the Dukes will turn to redshirt junior Billy Atkins behind center.

This will be the first time JMU has played a game in the Sunshine State since falling at South Florida back in 2000. It looks for a first-ever bowl win. But 20 of the team members were part of the roster during last year’s Armed Forces Bowl appearance loss to Air Force, including seven who started that matchup with Air Force. Add in the six transfers who appeared in a bowl game prior to joining JMU, and the Dukes have plenty of postseason experience on their roster.

Against Conference USA

This marks just the second meeting ever for JMU against a member of Conference USA – it is 1-0 against the league since moving to the FBS thanks to a 44-7 win at home over Middle Tennessee on Sept 3, 2022, in the program’s first game in the FBS.

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