93rd Academy Awards Best Actor Picks Expert Analysis

93rd Academy Awards Best Actor Picks Expert Analysis

Written by on April 7, 2021

For the ninety-third time, top actors and actresses gather in Hollywood on April 25 for the 2021 Academy Awards. Last week, we wrote about and made picks for the supporting actor and supporting actress categories. In today’s blog, we analyze and provide picks for Best Actor and Best Actress o you can keep betting against their Academy Award odds.  

Entertainment Betting News | Best Actor Picks Update

93rd Academy Awards General Info

  • When: April 25, 2021
  • Where: Dolby Theatre, Hollywood, CA

93rd Academy Awards Best Actor 

Most believe Boseman is a lock. His first nomination is also a posthumous nom as Boseman passed away this past summer due to cancer. He’s fantastic as Levee in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The odds imply he wins hands down, and we see no reason to pick against the actor who brought the Black Panther to life on small and large screens. 

Upsets happen in all acting categories, though. Casey Affleck beat Ryan Gosling, Viggo Mortensen, and Denzel Washington in 2016. Rami Malek beat Viggo, Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, and Willem Dafoe when playing Freddie Mercury.

Roberto Benigni won for Life Is Beautiful in 1998 when everyone thought Ian McKellen in Gods & Monsters was a lock. If memory serves, Daniel Day-Lewis offered Boseman-like odds to win for playing Bill the Butcher in 2002’s Gangs of New York. Adrien Brody beat DDL and won the golden statue for playing Wladyslaw Szpilman in The Pianist.

This year, the top upset pick, and it’s not even close, is Riz Ahmed. Riz carries Sound of Metal. Without Ahmed, there is no movie and, a clue as to how much the Academy really loves Ahmed’s performance, the movie picked up a Best Film nod but no Best Director nomination. That tells us Ahmed is an overlay at +1000.   

Academy Award Pick: Chadwick Boseman 

Academy Award Underdog Pick: Riz Ahmed 

93rd Academy Awards Best Actress

Mulligan’s odds have deteriorated big time. She’s gone from third-choice to the top pick. Andra Day won the Golden Globe and Viola Davis is always a threat. Frances McDormand gives a masterful performance.

Will Mulligan beat her competition? The odds say “yes” and so does history. The last woman of color to win the Best Actress Oscar was Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball. But this year both Andra Day and Viola Davis are deserving.

Day plays Billie Holiday. Davis plays Ma Rainey. We believe the prudent move is to back both Day and Davis. The +400 makes Day the favorite. The +850 makes Viola the underdog bet.    

Academy Award Pick: Andra Day 

Academy Award Underdog Pick: Viola Davis

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