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Bet on the WNBA Finals 2024: NY Liberty vs MN Lynx - Odds & Expert Picks

Bet on the WNBA Finals 2024: NY Liberty vs MN Lynx – Odds & Expert Picks

Written by on October 9, 2024

Featured Sports Betting Odds, WNBA Betting News, Rumors & Trends

Over the next couple of weeks, we will have a smooth transition from the end of the WNBA season to the start of the new NBA season.

The big question waiting to be answered is which team will end the WNBA season as the new champion.

 

My Analysis of the WNBA Finals

The final 2 teams are now set, and with the Las Vegas Aces now out of the running, we are going to have a new champion this year.

It will be the teams that finished #1 and #2 in the regular season that will be going head-to-head in the best-of-5 WNBA Finals, but who will come out on top.

The New York Liberty are the favorites to end the season as the new champion, sitting at odds of -270, while the Minnesota Lynx are at +203.

Let’s take a look at how both teams got to this point, while also making some predictions along the way.

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New York Liberty Path to the Finals

It was the New York Liberty that finished the regular season in the top spot, winning home court advantage throughout the playoffs. While that is certainly a nice advantage, it is one that can be argued that the Liberty didn’t really need. They were 16-4 at home and on the road during the regular season, so they were strong regardless of where they played.

They started their playoff journey with a Round 1 series against the Atlanta Dream. Where they didn’t really have to break a sweat. They won both games in comfortable fashion, setting up a semi-final against the Las Vegas Aces, who were looking to nail the three-peat this season. The Liberty quickly went up 2-0 in the best-of-5 before losing one on the road. They then went home and closed out the series in 4 games.

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Finals Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

 

Minnesota Lynx Path to the Finals

The Lynx ended the regular season with just 2 wins fewer than their WNBA Finals opponent, going 30-10. They were 16-4 at home, and while they were not as strong on the road, they still posted a very respectable 14-6 record in road games. It is worth noting that they did pick up a road win in New York this season, but we will get into that a little more in just a moment.

The Lynx laid an absolute beating on the Phoenix Mercury in Round 1, dropping over 100 points on their opponents in both games. Things got a good deal tougher in the semi-finals against the Connecticut Sun, with that series going the distance. It was Minnesota who dug deep to come away with the win in the critical Game 5 of that series.

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Head-To-Head and Potential Outcome

There are some who believe that the New York Liberty will roll to a championship win given how good they have been all season long. It is worth noting, though, that the Lynx had the best of the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 from New York.

I think we are looking at a series that potentially goes the full 5 games. If that is indeed the case, then you can get New York to win in 5 at odds of +300, while the Lynx are sitting at +610 to win it in 5 games.

I am taking the Liberty to do it.

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2023 WNBA Finals Odds: The Matchup Everyone Wanted
 

The New York Liberty formed a superteam last offseason. Already having Sabrina Ionescu on the roster, the Liberty brought in Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot to bring the franchise to glory. New York has never won a WNBA crown and hasn’t played in the finals since losing to the Los Angeles Sparks in 2002.

The Sparks were the last team to do what Las Vegas Aces are attempting to do against the Liberty. Since the Sparks repeated in 2001 and 2002, no WNBA team has won back-to-back championships. Las Vegas will be the first team to try and defend its crown since the Sparks won in 2016 before losing to Minnesota in five games in 2017.

This matchup will be a fun battle and should be a fun series to bet on. Here’s a look at MyBookie’s betting analysis, WNBA betting lines, and free picks for the Finals.

WNBA Finals Odds: The Matchup Everyone Wanted | MyBookie Regular Season Betting Preview

2023 WNBA Season: 27th season of the Women’s National Basketball Association
Finals: October 8th – October 20th, 2023

Regular Season Series was Tight

The schedule was set up so the Aces and Liberty had four of their five meetings after Aug. 1. That was challenging for Las Vegas, which played its worst basketball during the season’s last month. The Liberty made their most lasting impression by squishing Las Vegas 82-63 in the Commissioner’s Cup final in Las Vegas.

New York held a 3-2 edge during the five meetings in the regular season.

Aces have a Complete Team

During the regular season, Las Vegas had one of the best offenses in WNBA history. The Aces averaged 92.8 points per game and were the second-best 3-point shooting team. Las Vegas is led by forward A’ja Wilson, who was named the WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. During the playoffs, Wilson has dominated both sides of the floor.

On defense, Wilson averages 3.2 blocks per game. She also averages a double-double by contributing 25.8 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. While Las Vegas’ offense has dipped down to 86 points per game in the postseason, the Aces have plenty of scoring balance around Wilson.

Chelsea Gray (16.0 points per game), Kelsey Plum (16.0) and Jackie Young (15.2) have averaged more than 15 points per game.

New York Survives Tough Test

While the Liberty and Aces seemed predestined to meet in the WNBA Finals, the Connecticut Sun was always a dark horse to win. The Sun made New York scratch and claw to get by them in four games during the semifinals.

New York only won Games 3 and 4 by a combined four points to survive and advance. The Liberty have also seen their scoring average dip to 84.3 points per game in the postseason.

Stewart has played excellent basketball, averaging 19.8 points and 9.0 rebounds in the postseason. New York forward Jonquel Jones has made an enormous impact inside, averaging 16.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game.

WNBA Final Prediction

New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces | WNBA Finals – Game 1, Series starts 10/8
WNBA Odds: Aces -4.5 / Liberty +156; Aces -192 / O/U 172

Sunday, October 8th, 2023 at 8:00 pm EDT | ABC
Michelob ULTRA Arena Las Vegas, NV

This series has been as promised during the regular season. Other than Las Vegas missing veteran Candace Parker from the lineup, both teams come into this series in relatively good help. This series will likely determine which team can consistently succeed on offense against the other side. 

New York has been the better team since early August, but Las Vegas had a less taxing trip to the finals. The Liberty will keep this series close, but Las Vegas will survive in five games to repeat.

WNBA Finals Lines | Bet Wings at Aces Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

WNBA Finals Games: 2023 Schedule | September 18th – September 24th, 2023

wnba b
Date Time Home Away
Sunday, October 8 3:00 p.m. New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
Wednesday, October 11 9:00 p.m. New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
Sunday, October 15 3:00 p.m. New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
Wednesday, October 18 7:30 p.m. Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty
Friday, October 20 9:00 p.m. New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
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