Georgia vs Texas: NCAAF Expert Picks, Betting Analysis in Week 8

It’s arguably the biggest game of the 2024 college football regular season on Saturday when No. 5 Georgia visits No. 1 Texas in primetime in a matchup of national championship favorites.

It could be the first of three meetings between the schools this season.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: Texas -5 (total 56)
Expert Prediction in Week 8: Texas 27, Georgia 24

Georgia Bulldogs +170

No. 5 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC) beat Mississippi State 41-31 on Saturday as quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Carson Beck was 36-for-48 passing for 459 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The 459 yards were the third most in a game in Georgia history and the most since Eric Zeier had 485 vs. South Carolina in 1994, going 31-for-51. Zeier holds the mark with 544 against Southern Miss in 1993 when he was 30-for-47.

Carson Beck

Beck spread the ball around plenty, with five different Bulldogs catching four or more passes. Wideout Arian Smith had five catches for a career-high 134 yards and a touchdown. The Bulldogs posted a season-high 605 yards of total offense on 77 plays including 459 yards through the air. Georgia converted two more 4th downs and is now 10-for-11 on the year including making their last nine attempts.

I know we cancelled Carson Beck after Alabama but he's been throwing absolute seeds the last couple games pic.twitter.com/mdfMEPzhBn
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) October 15, 2024

Beck has thrown for eight touchdowns in his last three games, surpassing the 400-yard passing mark in two of those three contests. He has also tossed five picks over that span, though. In his career, Beck is 6-2 vs. top-20 foes, completing 69.4% of his passes for 2,410 yards, 18 TDs and 5 INTs.

Georgia has now won 44 of its past 45 games including 30 of its past 31 SEC regular season games. The Bulldogs are 51-3 in their last 54 games. UGA also extended its school-record winning streak on Dooley Field to 28 games. The Bulldogs haven’t lost between the hedges since 2019. Georgia’s senior class, which has never lost a home game, improved its overall record to 47-3, the best mark in the FBS. The 2024 seniors are only three wins away from tying the 2023 class’ program-best win total of 50.

Brett Thorson

Junior punter Thorson and the Bulldogs rank 8th nationally in Net Punting (43.94). Georgia is the only FBS team whose opponents have negative PR yards this season.

ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Austin for this one. Georgia is 17-18 all-time with the GameDay crew on site including 0-1 this year (losing at Alabama). Last year, they were in Athens to see Georgia whip No. 9 Ole Miss 52-17 and in Atlanta when it fell to UA in the SEC Championship Game.

Kirby Smart

The Bulldogs are 3-5 in school history all-time vs. the top-ranked team and 2-1 under Smart. He is unbeaten against all active head coaches over the past five years except Kalen DeBoer (Alabama). Georgia is 67-7 in that span. The coaches no longer active who have wins over Georgia during this stretch: Nick Saban (3) along with Will Muschamp, Ed Orgeron and Dan Mullen. He looks for career win No. 100 on Saturday.

Georgia is an underdog for the 1st time since its 2021 season opener vs Clemson, snapping a streak of 49 straight games as a favorite.

“I do not look at lines and underdog favorites,” Smart said. “I worry about one thing. What do we have to do to play our best? That comes with a lot of game planning. There is a minimal approach to the game, but I don’t think it’s about being the underdog. I don’t think that’s, you know, I think it’s about being physical and being prepared to play in a tough place. And the mental strength it takes to play well on the road, you don’t need to waste all that energy talking about being the underdog.”

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Week 8 Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Texas Longhorns -212

With Georgia’ streak of 49 straight games as a betting favorite set to be snapped, the next-longest active FBS streak is 18 by Texas so that will grow by one. UT is looking to defeat an AP top-5 opponent in consecutive seasons for the 1st time since 1983-85. If Georgia defeats Texas, it would mark the 1st time since 2007 that there are no undefeated SEC teams at the end of October.

Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC) routed No. 18 Oklahoma 34-3 last Saturday in Dallas to improve to 6-0 for the first time since 2009. It took six games into the 2024 season for an opponent to take the lead against Texas, but the Longhorns quickly overcame Oklahoma’s 42-yard field goal on the Sooners’ third offensive drive of the game, a drive that took 4:42 off the clock and saw OU move the ball just 38 yards on 11 plays. The drive, which began with 4:52 left in the first quarter and ended with 10 seconds left, was the only one on the day for Oklahoma that did not end in either a punt, turnover or end of half.

Quinn Ewers

After receiving the ensuing kickoff minutes later, quarterback Ewers, in his first action for Texas since Sept. 14 due to injury, orchestrated a 10-play, 75-yard drive that resulted in a 7-yard touchdown reception from tight end Gunnar Helm. The drive was the first of six different scoring opportunities — on 12 offensive possessions — for the Longhorn offense that rolled up 406 total yards of offense on 61 plays against a Sooner defense that ranked 43rd in the country in total defense.

Quinn Ewers with the Golden Hat 🤠 pic.twitter.com/QQCAjUDQwz
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 12, 2024

Ewers has led Texas to 20 wins in 26 starts during his time on the Forty Acres. He completed 20-of-29 passes (69 percent) for 199 yards and a touchdown in the win while also rushing for a score. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 17 straight games.

Quintrevion Wisner

Tailback Wisner notched his first career 100+ rushing yard effort after finishing with a career high 13 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown. Wisner averaged 9.1 yards per carry and had also had a career-long 43-yard run for a touchdown. Wisner is the second Longhorn rusher to go over the century mark this season, joining RB Jaydon Blue who ran 25 times for 124 yards vs. ULM on Sept. 21. The Longhorns have recorded over 100 yards on the ground in 20 consecutive games.

Texas has scored 30+ points in nine consecutive games, dating back to the 2023 season. UT has now scored on 26 of 28 trips in the Red Zone, 25 (11 run/14 pass) of those scores have been touchdowns. Texas’ point differential (+221) through six games is its best since 1915 (+288). The Horns have allowed just 38 points through six games, its fewest since 1964 (30). Texas’ 259 points through six games, its most since 2005 (274).

Stadium History

Saturday will be just the third top-5 matchup in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium history and first since 2006 when No. 1 Ohio State defeated No. 2 Texas, 24-7. The only previous top-5 matchup at the Longhorns home stadium came in 1970, when No. 1 Texas knocked off No. 4 Arkansas, 42-7. It will also mark the 18th time a top-5 team has played at DKR-TMS.

Including eight visits to the Red River Rivalry and four neutral site appearances, it will mark the 24th time the ESPN College GameDay set and its show will be a prominent fixture at a Texas game. UT is 12-11 all-time when the Horns are one of the teams in College GameDay’s featured matchup, highlighted by a 5-4 mark when the show comes to the Forty Acres.