2022 Kentucky Derby Betting Tips to Make the Most Profit

On May 7, the best three-year-old horses in the world step onto the dirt at Churchill Downs to run in the annual Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses is America’s most prestigious horse race. Winning the Derby is a big deal, but because 20 horses will enter the starting gate, the Kentucky Derby is a challenging prospect for horseplayers. Check out our Kentucky Derby Betting Update on the rules you must stick to so you can ensure either you profit or you don’t take a bath betting on this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Expert Picks: How to Bet On the Race

When: Saturday, May 7
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

How to Bet On the Kentucky Derby

Remember, the Run for the Roses is just another horse race

The hype surrounding the Derby is so intense that it’s easy for us to forget that at the end of the day, the Kentucky Derby is another horse race.

Yes, more horses will enter the starting gate than what American racing fans are used to seeing. But those horses and jockeys are equines. Granted, they have more ability but they’re not different physically, maybe more muscle, than the horses that run in a $5,000 claimer at Turf Paradise.

So don’t get caught up with the hype. The Kentucky Derby is a spectacle, but once the gates open, it’s just another horse race.

When handicapping the Derby, pay attention to speed ratings

Speed ratings, either Beyer or Brisnet or your own, mean something in most horses races. For some reason, speed ratings mean a lot more in the Derby.

It’s difficult to know why, but the fastest horse wins the Kentucky Derby a lot. This is especially true since Churchill Downs changed the rules so that horses had to win or finish in the top three in the major prep races to ensure a Derby start.

Pay attention to speed ratings. If the horse you like is slow, if it hasn’t run a speed figure close to the favorites, drop your horse.

For some reason, favorites now race well in the Kentucky Derby

Speaking of favorites, they run well in the Derby. Favored Essential Quality finished fourth last year, but the Godolphin runners speed ratings were on par with the winner’s.

We should throw out 2020 because the Belmont happened at 1 1/8 miles and it happened before the Kentucky Derby. No wonder Authenticate won the Derby.

From 2015 through 2019 the favorite won the race. But in 2019, the chalk got taken down due to interference, which is why Country House is listed as the winner.

Don’t blow your entire bankroll on the Kentucky Derby

If you just want to bet on the Kentucky Derby, that’s great. But know you could miss out on a lot of terrific overlays in other races.

Don’t bet your entire bankroll on the Derby. Try to look for races on Churchill’s card that can lead to profit and then put some money on the Derby towards the end of the day.

Keep trifecta and superfecta tickets manageable

If you bet Derby trifecta or superfecta tickets, make sure to keep your ticket to a manageable level. Set up rules for yourself.

For example, set a rule that says you will use just 3 horses in every spot after your key horse. If you don’t set rules, you could end up with an overly expensive trifecta or superfecta ticket.

Find your key horse and stick with it

Speaking of key horses, you can’t make Derby exotic bets unless you find a key horse. What horse do you think will finish first, second, or third?

If it’s likely chalk Epicenter, then use Epicenter as your key horse. Then bet your super, exacta, and trifecta round Epicenter to finish first or second or first, second, third, or fourth.

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

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2019 Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies

Previous Betting News

The 2019 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4. Like all Derbies, everybody’s got an opinion on who will win. To cash, though, it makes sense to come up with a Kentucky Derby betting strategy. Check out 4 possible Kentucky Derby betting strategies for the Run for the Roses.

Strategies to Cash on the Kentucky Derby

Strategy #1 – Build Tickets Around the Chalk

The Kentucky Derby favorite has won the past 6 runnings. Right now, the favorite is Omaha Beach at +450. A strategy with a high probability of success could be to create exacta and trifecta tickets around Omaha Beach.

Use Omaha Beach in the win, place, and show slots in your trifecta while also using him on both the top and bottom in exactas. For a $2 exacta with Omaha Beach on top, the cost is $38. For a $1 exacta with Omaha Beach on the bottom of all 19 of his competitors, the cost is only $19.

You could use the chalk in a high-probability exacta for a total investment of $57.

Strategy #2 – Drop All Baffert Horses from Your Top 2

A strategy only unique to the 2019 Kentucky Derby could be to drop Bob Baffert trained horses from finishing first or second on all your tickets. Bob Baffert trains 3 of the 4 favorites: Improbable, Game Winner, and Roadster.

If you believe all three of Baffert’s horses fail to secure win or place money, you could drop all 3 and go for a big cashing ticket. Definitely handicap the race before using this strategy, though. Baffert’s runners are 3 of the top 4 choices for a reason.

Strategy #3 – Key the Likeliest Front Runner in the Place and Show Slots

What horse do you think will get the lead? Will it be Vekoma? Will it be Maximum Security? A Good strategy is to use the horse you think will get the lead and then key that horse in the place and show slot in your exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

It’s difficult to wire the Kentucky Derby. Talented horses like Vekoma and Maximum Security can most definitely finish second or third, though. You’ll still need to construct a ticket with a winner and who you believe finishes around the front runner, but this could be a ticket cashing strategy.

Strategy #4 – Go Super SoCal

Instead of dropping Baffert’s horses, use all 3 of his runners and Omaha Beach. A $1 trifecta box with Improbable, Game Winner, Omaha Beach, and Roadster only costs $24.

Since the year started, most horseplayers have considered the best three-year-olds in the nation to be the SoCal runners. Why not go super SoCal with the Baffert runners and Omaha Beach?

Using Running Styles To Handicap Your Kentucky Derby Bets

Previous Betting News

With the quickly approaching 2017 Kentucky Derby, you may be looking for ways to identify possible winners of the annual Run for the Roses, then one of the very best ways to do that is by analyzing the respective running styles of each thoroughbred. Find the latest horse racing betting odds here.

Using Running Styles To Handicap Your Kentucky Derby Bets

You see, when it comes to winning the most prestigious thoroughbred horse race in the United States there are some age-old ‘facts’ surrounding the derby, even if they aren’t a much of a fact as some believe they are. Fact No. 1 says that pacesetters and closer rarely win the Kentucky Derby, but that clearly isn’t always the case a 32 thoroughbreds have gone gate-to-wire to win the derby.

However, there is also some truth to the age-old belief that horses that get out of the gate too quickly don’t have as good a chance of winning as a mount that is in the middle of the pack at the first call (1/4 mile mark). This millennia, only War Emblem has been able to maintain the lead from the 1/4 mile mark while Go for Gin is the only other derby winner to grab and keep the lead by the 1/2 mile mark.

A far as closers winning the Kentucky Derby is concerned, in the last 27 races dating back to 1990, only eight winners (29.6%) have been able to come back from more than 10 lengths behind the leader at the 1/2 mile mark while 11 others (40.7%) came back from than eight lengths behind at the same point. That figures dips dramatically to just 6 (22.2%) winning after being eight or more lengths behind the leader at the 3/4 mile mark.

In essence, stalkers (horses that are just off the lead) look like the best bets to win the Kentucky Derby. Simply find the best stalkers in the 2017 derby that you can and ride one or two of them for the win!