2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Superfecta

This might be the most competitive Breeders’ Cup Classic since 2011, the last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Churchill Downs. Drosselmeyer upset the field that day and paid over $31 for a $2 dollar wager. He keyed an amazing superfecta. I’m hoping lightning strikes twice with my superfecta key horse betting picks on Saturday.

2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic Superfecta

BREAKING NEWS: 60 and 🌞 on Championship Saturday! #BC18 (https://t.co/kLK2dqnKdI) pic.twitter.com/VQYalZYup7

— Breeders’ Cup (@BreedersCup) October 30, 2018

• When:  Saturday, Nov. 3 at 5:44 pm ET

Churchill Downs – Race 11

• 1-Thunder Snow 12/1
• 2-Roaring Lion 20/1
• 3-Catholic Boy 8/1
• 4-Gunnevera 20/1
• 5-Lone Sailor 30/1
• 6-McKinzie 6/1
• 7-West Coast 5/1
• 8-Pavel 20/1
• 9-Mendelssohn 12/1
• 10-Yoshida 10/1
• 11-Mind Your Biscuits 6/1
• 12-Axelrod 30/1
• 13-Discreet Lover 20/1
• 14-Accelerate 5/2

Superfecta Key Horse:  Roaring Lion

Roaring Lion offers huge overlay odds at 20/1 to win the BC Classic on Nov. 4. Many horseplayers, especially those who reside in the U.S., discount Roaring Lion’s chances because he’s never raced on dirt and his sire, Kitten’s Joy, has sired nothing but turf runners.

I don’t because even though it’s often hard for horses to make a surface switch and there’s no doubting Kitten Joy’s pedigree, Roaring Lion has Street Sense on his broodmare’s side. Street Sense won the 2007 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

More importantly, the Classic’s wide-open. I like to back the classiest horse in wide-open races. Without a doubt, because of his 4 straight Group 1 wins, Roaring Lion’s the classiest horse.

Horses to Use in Place Slot:  Thunder Snow, McKinzie, West Coast, Mind Your Biscuits

Saeed Bin Suroor trained Thunder Snow likes dirt more than he likes turf. He almost pulled off the upset in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. Like Roaring Lion, U.S. horseplayers should forget about him, which means he’ll offer massive odds.

Both Bob Baffert trained horses McKinzie and West Coast can take this. West Coast made all the running in the Grade 1 Awesome Again. It took a massive effort by Classic race favorite Accelerate to beat him. McKinzie won the Pennsylvania Derby. In 2014, Baffert used the Penn Derby to prep Bayern to a BC Classic win.

Mind Your Biscuits always fires. He not only always fires, but he easily handled his competition in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic Stakes over Churchill Downs’ dirt in his last. He should have no trouble getting the distance while he can come from the clouds or stay close if the pace is soft.

Horses to Use in Show Slot:  Thunder Snow, McKinzie, West Coast, Yoshida, Mind Your Biscuits

Yoshida went turf to dirt for trainer Bill Mott in the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga and won it. He’s actually bred to prefer dirt over turf. He’s a must use in the place slot. Mind Your Biscuits has a fantastic 8-10-3 record from 24 starts. He always fires. If the pace is swift like expected, he’s a logical contender to get into the trifecta.

He’s the only horse I’m adding to the show slot after Thunder Snow, McKinzie, West Coast, and Mind Your Biscuits.

Horses to Use in Fourth Slot: Thunder Snow, McKinzie, West Coast, Yoshida, Mind Your Biscuits, Mendelssohn, Discreet Lover

Aidan O’Brien trains Mendelssohn who failed miserably in the Kentucky Derby. If it comes up wet on Saturday, there’s a 40% chance of rain on Friday, he might be a toss out. He hated getting mud in his face on Derby Day. If the track’s fast, he’s a must use because he ran lights out in the JC Gold Cup to finish third behind Discreet Lover and Thunder Snow.

Discreet Lover won the Jockey Club Gold Cup closing into ridiculously fast fractions. He should get a similar setup, but this field is much tougher. I think there’s a chance he ends up fourth, though.

This superfecta ticket should cost $96. I plan on playing a couple of trifectas with Roaring Lion in the place slot and show slot and Thunder Snow, McKinzie, West Coast, Mind Your Biscuits, Yoshida in the other slots. Each of those wagers should cost $20 for a $1.