There’s a lot of drama surrounding Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, which returns to its traditional spot for 2021. Medina Spirit, who won the Kentucky Derby just over a week ago, failed a drug test, which as a result, banned Bob Baffert from entering the upcoming race.
This also put Medina Spirit’s attendance at the Preakness Stakes at risk. However, as per recent news, Medina Spirit will be heading to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore – albeit without Baffert.
Even with Medina Spirit at the track, you have to ask yourself whether the (unofficial) winner of the Kentucky Derby really is the best pick to win the 146th Preakness Stakes? Or will an outsider step up to steal the spotlight?
2021 Preakness Stakes – Mid-Week Updated Betting Analysis
2021 Preakness Stakes
- When: Sunday, May 15
- Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland, United States
- Weather: Partly Cloudy
2021 Preakness Stakes Odds on Wednesday, May 12
- Medina Spirit +200
- Concert Tour +275
- Midnight Bourbon +500
- Crowded Trade +1000
- Risk Taking +1200
- Robmauer +1200
- Keepmeinmind +1400
- Unbridled Honor +1600
- France Go De Ina +2000
- Ram +2500
Concert Tour’s Redemption?
Concert Tour showed great form this season, but after a disappointing third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Gary West decided to pull Concert Tour out of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. That might have been a mistake, given how strong the horse was at Churchill Downs.
Regardless, Concert Tour is back on the track, ready to prove his worth. As of Wednesday, Concert Tour is priced as second-favorite at +275, only slightly behind Medina Spirit at +200.
How about the outsiders?
Horse races such as Preakness Stakes are as unpredictable as they can get, with outsiders often outperforming the expectations. So, it makes sense to put some thought into who out of the underdogs can impress.
Crowded Trade (+1000) is a horse that springs to mind when we talk about outsiders with the potential to win. He didn’t race as a two-year-old but then started his career with a commanding victory at Aqueduct.
He moved up to Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, where he narrowly lost to Weyburn. The colt later added a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial in April.
Keepmeinmind (+1400) is another horse to keep an eye on. He finished sixth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, fifth in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes, and seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Although not spectacular performances on paper, Keepmeinmind raced exceptionally well at the Kentucky Derby, where he finished strong despite his very slow start.
Midnight Bourbon (+500) finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby but could have been much faster had he not gotten bumped leaving the starting gate. He had to start the race far back but ran well and consistently to close out the gap.
If Midnight Bourbon’s relatively good performance at the Kentucky Derby is to go by, he should do more than fine at Preakness Stakes as well. And let’s not forget that he is trained by Steve Asmussen, who saddled Preakness winners in 2007 and 2009.
Bettors high on products of previous champions should be interested in betting on Ram (+2500), especially at the offered odds. That is even though the son of one and only American Pharoah has yet to live up to the hype.
In his first seven starts, Ram only managed one runner-up finish and failed to place in the remaining six. That said, he has looked much better of late, securing straight victories at Oaklawn Park and Churchill Downs.
Having only two wins in nine starts isn’t that great, but if we consider that both of those wins came in his last two races, things start to look a bit different.