Mets vs Braves

Mets vs Braves – MLB Odds & Picks

Written by on July 31, 2020

With the Phillies and Nationals disappointing early, the NL East Division could come down the Mets and two-time champion Braves this season. They meet for a series opener in Atlanta on Friday with the Braves as solid favorites on the MLB odds.

Mets vs Braves – MLB Odds & Picks

How to Bet Mets at Braves MLB Odds & TV InfoWhy Bet on NY Mets?

The Mets could have been on a nice winning streak entering this game but were upset as huge favorites at home on Wednesday, 6-5 by Boston, despite having ace and two-time Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom on the mound. DeGrom took a no-decision after allowing two runs and three hits in six innings. DeGrom’s velocity was fine, but he wasn’t at his sharpest, as evidenced by the fact that he struck out just four and threw a couple of wild pitches.

New York remains without No. 2 starter Marcus Stroman, who is scheduled to face live hitters on Friday. It’ll be the first such workout for Stroman since he landed on the injured list just before Opening Day because of a left calf tear.

Before Thursday’s game, the Mets called up infielder Brian Dozier, a former All-Star second baseman with the Twins. Dozier inked a minor league deal with the Mets last week after getting released from the Padres during summer camp. Dozier will mostly be a bench player but started at second Thursday. The team put fellow infielder Eduardo Nunez on the 10-day injured list with a left knee contusion. Nunez suffered the injury on Sunday when he landed awkwardly after beating out an infield single.

It’s former AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (0-1, 27.00) on the mound. Porcello was lit up for seven runs — six earned — over two-plus innings last Sunday as the Mets were routed by the Braves. Porcello’s defense didn’t do him any favors, but there was hard contact throughout the abbreviated outing, which ended after five straight batters reached base to open the top of the third inning. Porcello didn’t mince words about his Mets debut, calling it “terrible.”

It was Porcello’s shortest start since June 29, 2019 (0.1 innings vs. Yankees). It was the ninth time he’s allowed at least six runs in a start since the beginning of last season. Porcello seeks to become the 10th active pitcher to reach the 150-win milestone and would move into a tie for ninth among active players in career wins (also, David Price).

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Been an interesting week already for Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman. On Tuesday, he had his first game with four strikeouts in four years. Then on Wednesday vs. Tampa Bay, Freeman went 4-for-5 with a homer, a double and three RBI to propel the Braves to a 7-4 win. Mark Melancon notched his first save with a perfect ninth Wednesday against the Rays.

The Braves got some good news Wednesday as outfielder Nick Markakis reversed course on his previous decision to opt out of the 2020 season amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “In the pit of my stomach, I felt like I needed to be out there,” the veteran said. Markakis should get close to everyday playing time between DH and the corner outfield spots once he’s ready for live action.

It’s lefty Sean Newcomb (0-0, 2.70) here. Newcomb needs to be more aggressive than he was on Sunday, when he needed 82 pitches to record 10 outs. The lefty limited the Mets to just one run and issued two walks over 3 1/3 innings.  He hit two batters in the first inning before getting behind 3-0 to Yoenis Cespedes, and if Cespedes had not swung at a pitch in his eyes, he would have walked the bases loaded, leading to a ton of trouble.

Consistently encountering three-ball counts is not a recipe for success. If he didn’t have workload limitations, Newcomb could have had an easy win as the Braves shellacked the Mets 14-1 in the contest. He’ll likely be limited again when he gets a rematch with the Mets on Friday.

Had injured Cole Hamels been ready to start the season and had Félix Hernández elected to play this year, Newcomb might have returned to the bullpen, where he finally provided some consistent value last year.

Game Trends
  • Braves are 18-6 in their last 24 Friday games.
  • Braves are 15-6 in their last 21 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Braves are 37-15 in their last 52 games as a home favorite.
  • Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 Friday games.
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Mets are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Expert PredictionBraves 6, Mets 4
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