Missouri at Alabama Expert Picks, Betting Analysis, Odds, Week 9

Just a couple of weeks ago, Alabama was the #1 team in the country but now the Tide are down to #15 and their chances of playing for the SEC title or reaching the College Football Playoff will vanish if they lose again on Saturday at home vs. #21 Missouri.

Bama is a double-digit favorite on the NCAAF odds in the Week 9.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: Alabama -13.5 (total 56)
Expert Prediction in Week 9: Alabama 33, Missouri 24

Missouri Tigers +390

Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC) rallied to beat Auburn on Saturday, 21-17. The visitors scored two touchdowns in a minute and a half and took a double-digit lead into the fourth quarter but couldn’t hold it as Missouri drove 95 yards on 17 plays and scored the winning touchdown on Jamal Roberts’ 4-yard run with 46 remaining in the game.

Oscar Chapman had pinned Missouri at its 5 with 4:26 to play. Missouri advanced to Auburn’s 39-yard after a defensive pass interference penalty before Jalen McLeod’s sack pushed the home team back across midfield. A 13-yard pass play set up fourth-and-5 at Auburn’s 41, but the home team moved the chains with a 16-yard pass. Missouri converted again on third-and-10 to get to the 15-yard line and scored three plays later.

On Auburn’s final possession, Daylan Carnell, Dreyden Norwood and Tre’Vez Johnson each broke up a pass and Johnny Walker Jr. sacked quarterback Payton Thorne. Missouri’s defense limited Auburn to 286 total yards, and just 22 yards – four rushing and 18 passing, in the fourth quarter alone.

Brady Cook

Missouri quarterback Cook returned from a midgame trip to the hospital to have an MRI exam on his ailing ankle and led his team to two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Cook was hurt on the opening series and did not return until late in the third quarter, after his hospital trip and a session in the nearby indoor practice facility, where Missouri coaches wanted to see whether his ankle could properly function.

Trailing 17-6, Cook returned to the game with 31 second remaining in the third quarter and completed a 3rd-and-10 pass over the middle that Mookie Cooper took 78 yards to the Auburn two-yard line. It was the longest non-scoring pass completion at Missouri in at least the last 60 years. On the first play of the fourth quarter, Marcus Carroll barreled into the end zone for a touchdown and Cook ran for a two-point conversion to bring MU within 17-14.

Here are my top performing players of WEEK 8:

Brady Cook @MizzouFootball
Jalon Walker @GeorgiaFootball
Mario Anderson Jr. @MemphisFB
Sawyer Robertson @BUFootball
Bryson Daily @ArmyWP_Football
Colorado Defensive Line @CUBuffsFootball
Antwan Powell-Ryland @HokiesFB pic.twitter.com/RpaD9mhIrJ
— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) October 21, 2024

“It was a long hour-and-a-half for sure. I did not think I was going to come back to play in the game. My stuff was off, my pads were off,” Cook said later. “Ultimately, I realized I had 2 1/2 games left to play in Faurot Field. We were going to find a way.”

Cook completed 11-of-22 passes for 194 yards. Star WR Luther Burden III caught six passes for 49 yards and became the 12th Tiger to top 2,000 career receiving yards. He now has 167 receptions for 2,027 yards. Burden III joined Theo Wease Jr. in the 2,000-receiving yard club, making Mizzou one of 14 FBS offenses to feature at least two 2,000-yard receivers; the Tigers join Arkansas and Ole Miss as the only three SEC offenses included on the list.

The Offensive

The Tiger offense made three trips to the red zone, reaching the end zone twice; MU’s lone non-conversion in the red zone came on the game-ending kneel-down at the AU 17-yard line. Mizzou is now 26-of-28 (.929) in red zone opportunities, and 82-of-86 (.953) overall since the start of last season.

Eliah Drinkwitz

MU improved to 146-80-1 all-time while ranked in the Associated Press poll, including a 78-26 standing at home. Eliah Drinkwitz became the first coach in program history to clinch bowl eligibility in each of his first five seasons. Drinkwitz earned his sixth career victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter; the 11-point deficit entering the final frame marked MU’s largest fourth quarter comeback victory since Nov. 19, 2011, when the Tigers came back from 14 down versus Texas Tech. Drinkwitz clinched his 34th win at the helm of the program, surpassing Gary Pinkel (2001-05) for the third-most wins in Mizzou history through five seasons; he also moved to within three victories of Dan Devine’s (1958-62) program record (37).

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Week 9 Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Alabama Crimson Tide -549

Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC) was upset at No. 11 Tennessee on Saturday, 24-17 – the Tide are now 1-2 since knocking off No. 1 Georgia and are lucky not to be 0-3 in that stretch. The Vols trailed 7-0 at the half, 10-7 in the third quarter and 17-14 in the fourth before a 16-yard Nico Iamaleava pass found a diving Chris Brazzell II in the back of the end zone to put UT up 21-17 with 5:52 remaining. Max Gilbert’s 41-yard field goal with 1:30 left extended the lead to seven, 24-17.

The Crimson Tide had one final opportunity, starting at their own 25. On the first play, quarterback Jalen Milroe’s pass attempt was picked off by Will Brooks. The UT defense was relentless all night long, finishing with 12 quarterback hurries, three sacks and nine tackles for losses. Milroe, a Heisman candidate, was held to only 11 yards on 14 rush attempts. He was 25-of-45 passing for a TD and two picks.

Jalen Milroe

Milroe has accounted for 24 total touchdowns in seven games of action this season, including 13 passing and 11 rushing. His 24 total scores are tied for fourth-most in the FBS, while his 146 points are also the fourth-best total in the country. Milroe’s 11 rushing scores are the second-most among quarterbacks in Division I, while he is one of only 37 FBS quarterbacks with at least 13 passing touchdowns. Milroe is averaging 9.73 yards per pass attempt, the sixth-best mark in the country. He has also accumulated 14.23 yards per completion which ranks third in the conference and 13th in Division I.

In eight total contests against AP Top 25 foes across the last two seasons, Milroe has completed 67.8 percent (141-216) of his passes for 1,840 yards while accounting for 16 total touchdowns (10 passing, six rushing). He has accumulated 2,290 total yards in those matchups.

Jam Miller

Miller paced the Crimson Tide’s rushing attack, finishing with only 42 yards on 12 carries. Justice Haynes contributed 22 yards and a touchdown on the ground while also hauling in five catches for 34 yards. The duo have combined for 673 of the Tide’s 1,150 rushing yards (58.5 percent) and nine touchdowns on the ground. Miller has scored at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in five of seven games, with Haynes crossing the goal line in four matchups this season.

Ryan Williams

Freshman Williams led all Alabama receivers with eight catches for 73 yards and a touchdown vs. Tennessee. His seven TD catches are the most by an Alabama freshman since Calvin Ridley (7) in 2015. Williams leads UA in yards (649), receptions (31) and touchdown catches while averaging 92.7 yards per game, 4.4 receptions per game and 1.0 score per contest. Ridley owns the Alabama freshman record for receptions (89) and yards (1,045) in 2015, with Amari Cooper holding the first-year mark for touchdown catches thanks to his 11 in 2012.

Alabama has scored no fewer than 35 points five of seven games this season. The Crimson Tide’s 38.7 points per game average ranks fourth in the SEC and is 19th in the FBS. This is Alabama’s Homecoming game and it has won 20 straight on Homecoming with the last loss a 35-21 defeat to LSU on Nov. 3, 2001. Overall, the Tide’s record on Homecoming is 88-13-1 (.867).

Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer is now 13-3 across 16 career matchups with teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25.

How to Watch Missouri at Alabama NCAA Football

When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium
TV: ABC
Stream: ESPN+

Missouri vs Alabama Series History

There are no SEC divisions now but Missouri and Alabama used to be in opposite ones so they have only played seven times with the Tide leading 5-2. The last matchup was in September 2020 when Alabama was 38-19 winner in Columbia. Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has never faced the Tigers during his head coaching career, while Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz is 0-1 against the Crimson Tide.