2017 MLB Home Run Derby Odds & Prediction

Posted by Michael Hunt on Monday,July 10, 2017 9:40, EST in

Unless you want to bet on the U.S. Open Cup soccer match between the San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy – and you can do that here at MyBookie – your lone wagering option on a live sporting event Monday night in the USA is the annual Home Run Derby. This year it’s held at Marlins Park in Miami. Here are the competitors and the latest MLB odds to win this year’s Home Run Derby.

2017 MLB Home Run Derby Odds & Prediction

When: Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Marlins Park, Miami
TV: ESPN
Stream: WatchESPN

For starters, it’s an eight-man single-elimination competition, with the No. 1 seed facing the No. 8 in Round 1, No. 2 vs. No. 7, etc. Each batter gets four minutes to hit as many dingers as possible. They can get bonus time as well, depending on distance of a homer and each chooses who pitches to them. For example, Dodgers rookie Cody Bellinger is having his father do it.

No. 1 seed Giancarlo Stanton

First of all, the Marlins slugger looks to join Yoenis Cespedes and Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players to repeat in this competition. Of course Stanton is the hometown favorite as well. However, he won last year’s Derby in San Diego with a record 61 homers, beating then defending champion Todd Frazier 20-13 in the final.

Stanton’s home runs traveled a total projected distance of 27,187 feet, which is 5.15 miles and 9,918 feet more than any other competitor. He also had the 20 hardest-hit home runs of the night. Stanton’s average home run distance on the night was 446 feet.

Home Run Derby Odds: +130

No. 2 seed Aaron Judge

Judge has been one of the biggest stories in baseball this season. His 30 homers lead the majors and already are a rookie SEASON record for a Yankee. Joe DiMaggio held the previous mark of 29. He also turned out to be a pretty good player.

He notably owns the four hardest-hit balls in 2017, according to Statcast, at exit velocities of 121.1, 119.8, 119.4 and 119 mph. On June 11, he hit a 495-foot homer off Baltimore’s Logan Verrett in the Bronx, the longest bomb in the majors this year.

Home Run Derby Odds: +150

No. 3 Cody Bellinger

While Judge is essentially a lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award – and probably the MVP too – the Dodgers’ Bellinger is the clear favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year honors. He’s currently second in the NL in homers despite not being called up until late April.

At the present time, Bellinger has six multi-homer games, one shy of the MLB rookie record. In reality, everyone wants to see a Bellinger-Judge semifinal.

Home Run Derby Odds: +550

No. 4 Mike Moustakas

At this instant, Moustakas already has set his career high with 25 homers and is on pace to shatter the Kansas City franchise single-season record of 36. He is also hitting the ball in the sweet spot in 8.4 percent of his plate appearances with an average exit velocity of 87.3 mph.

Home Run Derby Odds: +1000

No. 5 Miguel Sano

Even though Minnesota wasn’t a top choice this season, Sano is a big reason the Twins are much better than last year’s club that led the majors in losses. Sano, also named an All-Star for the first time, became the first Twins player to reach 21 homers before the All-Star break since Justin Morneau in 2009. Sano will have former Cardinals third baseman Fernando Tatis throw to him.

Home Run Derby Odds: +800

Miguel Sano is one of the top favorites to win the Home Run Derby this year.

No. 6 Charlie Blackmon

Honestly, it’s not too often you see a leadoff hitter in this event but Blackmon leads the Rockies with 20 bombs. Now one of four Major Leaguers with 70 runs scored, Blackmon is on pace for a 130/35/110/12/.315 season in 2017.

The outfielder went yard only four times in June, but he already has two round-trippers in July. His current 17.8 percent HR/FB rate doesn’t seem unsustainable, as he produced a 16.2 percent mark a year ago.

Home Run Derby Odds: +1000

No. 7 Justin Bour

Could we have an all-Marlins final of Bour and Stanton? Bour has had only 299 plate appearances this season, but he's already just three homers shy of tying his career-high of 23, which he set back in 2015.

Home Run Derby Odds: +1500

No. 8 Gary Sanchez

The Yankees catcher tied the MLB record last year for fastest to career 20 homers – only for that to be broken this year by Bellinger. Sanchez has only 13 homers this year, leading some to criticize including him, but he has been limited to 57 games due to injury. Yankees batting- practice pitcher Danilo Valiente will throw to both Judge and Sanchez.

Home Run Derby Odds: +1200

Previous MLB Home Run Derby Results

  • 2016 – Giancarlo Stanton. Miami Marlins. National League. Petco Park.
  • 2015 – Todd Frazier. Cincinnati Reds. National League. Great American Ball Park.
  • 2014 – Yoenis Céspedes. Oakland Athletics. American League. Target Field.
  • 2013 – Yoenis Céspedes. Oakland Athletics. American League. Citi Field.
  • 2012 – Prince Fielder. Detroit Tigers. American League. Kauffman Stadium.
  • 2011 – Robinson Canó. New York Yankees. American League. Chase Field.
  • 2010 – David Ortiz. Boston Red Sox. American League. Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

Historic Home Run Derby Facts and Stats

  • Most home runs in a single round: Josh Hamilton with 28 (2008 First Round)
  • Most single-derby home runsGiancarlo Stanton with 61 (2016) (These numbers exclude swingoffs)
  • Most all-time home runs: Todd Frazier with 91 (These numbers exclude swingoffs)
  • Consecutive years as champion: Ken Griffey Jr. (1998, 1999), Yoenis Céspedes (2013, 2014)
  • Wins by team: Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds (3)

2017 MLB Home Run Derby Expert Prediction

I believe experience in this event counts and go ahead and forget the myth that competing in the Derby wrecks a guy’s swing in the second half of the season. That has statistically been disproven. Take Stanton to send the hometown fans home happy. He beats his teammate Bour in the final – sadly we won’t get to see Judge and Stanton face off.