2019 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Preview & Prediction

2019 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on July 8, 2019

The only live betting action among the major American sports on Monday night is the annual Home Run Derby contest at Major League Baseball’s All-Star festivities – this year from Progressive Field in Cleveland. Here’s a look at the field and their 2019 Home Run Derby odds.

2019 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Preview & Prediction

  • When: Monday, July 8th, 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
  • Pool Money: $2.5 million
  • TV: ESPN
  • Live Stream: MLB.tv

Contest Overview

The Derby has had several changes over the years but is now a single-elimination bracket-style format featuring eight competitors. Doesn’t matter whether the guys are from the American League or National League, although MLB tries its best to split it up equally. The players are seeded by the number of home runs they had hit when the field is finalized, which was last week.

Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich leads the majors with 31 homers and the reigning NL MVP was thus seeded first. However, he pulled out of the contest over the weekend with a minor back issue, although Yelich plans to play in the actual All-Star Game on Tuesday night. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell said the team is not expecting Yelich to miss any time after the break. He has the club’s approval to play on Tuesday.

Instead of reseeding the entire field, MLB simply added Oakland’s Matt Chapman and seeded him first even though Chapman is only ninth in the American League with 21 homers. His father, Jim, will pitch to him in the Derby. The players pick who pitch to them.

Batters will have four minutes per round. The clock starts with the release of the first pitch. Homers don’t carry over to the next round. The higher seeds hit second in each competition and as soon as he passes the other guy (if he does), that individual competition ends. Each batter gets time outs as well.

In the first round and semifinals, each batter is entitled to one 45-second timeout. In the finals, each batter gets two timeouts — one for 45 seconds and another for 30 seconds. In addition, 30 seconds of bonus time will be awarded for hitting at least two home runs that each equal or exceed 440 feet as measured by Statcast.

The Contenders

Chapman is +550 to win and faces No. 8 seed and rookie Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, who is +320 and the youngest-ever competitor in the Derby. His Hall of Fame father won this contest in 2007 while playing for the Angels and the Derby in San Francisco. No Blue Jay has ever won the award and none have even competed in the Derby this century.

Either Chapman or Guerrero would then face either No. 4 Alex Bregman (+800) of the Astros or No. 5 Joc Pederson (+600) of the Dodgers. Bregman might have an edge in that he is the only competitor in the field who participated last year. He lost in the first round, though, to the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber – defending champion Bryce Harper is skipping this year. Pederson joins Bregman as the only competitors with prior Derby experience. In 2015 while a rookie Pederson lost in the finals to then Cincinnati Red Todd Frazier.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the favorites at the latest 2019 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds.

On the other side of the bracket, No. 2 Pete Alonso (+400) of the Mets faces No. 7 Carlos Santana (+900) of the hometown Indians. Alonso’s 30 homers are third-most all-time for a rookie in the first half of a season and already a Mets single-season rookie record. Santana’s 97 career home runs at Progressive Field puts him fourth on the all-time list at the ballpark, which opened as Jacobs Field in 1994.

The winner there takes on either No. 3 Josh Bell (+300) of the Pirates or No. 6 Ronald Acuna Jr. (+700) of the Braves. Bell already has more than doubled his 2018 total of 12 home runs in 148 games with 25 this year. After he hit 26 homers as a rookie in 2018, Acuna’s 20 before this year’s break are tied for the sixth-most by a player age 21 or younger.

Expert 2019 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Prediction

We think the oddsmakers got it right by making Bell favored. He beats Pederson in the final.

Last 10 MLB Home Run Derby Winners

  • 2018: Bryce Harper
  • 2017: Aaron Judge
  • 2016: Giancarlo Stanton
  • 2015: Todd Frazier
  • 2014: Yoenis Cespedes
  • 2013: Yoenis Cespedes
  • 2012: Prince Fielder
  • 2011: Robinson Cano
  • 2010: David Ortiz
  • 2009: Prince Fielder