Are the Reds Baseball Betting Favorites Against the Brewers?

Posted by Kenny Bell on Tuesday,April 25, 2017 10:12, EDT in

It’s the conclusion of a matchup between the NL Central’s two worst teams from last year but which are both much better in 2017: Cincinnati and Milwaukee from Miller Park on Wednesday. It’s a getaway day game after a night one so you could see a starter or two on each side get it off. The Brewers will be home baseball betting favorites.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee Pro Baseball Betting Prediction & Pick

When: Wednesday, April 26, 1:40 PM ET
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee
Probable pitchers (away/home): Tim Adleman/Wily Peralta
TV: MLB Network
Stream: MLB.tv
Radio: Cincinnati / Milwaukee
Opening MLB Lines: Brewers favored by TBA

Why Bet On Cincinnati?

Entering this series, Zack Cozart leads all qualified shortstops in Major League Baseball with his .370 average, .630 slugging, .444 OBP and 1.074 OPS. Joey Votto has the highest AVG (.346), OBP (.462) and SLG (.632) at Miller Park since the venue opened in 2001 (min. 200 PA).

How good has Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez been? Through the season’s first three weeks, the 25-year-old has a monstrous .371/.458/.742 slash. He is punishing the ball at a rate that puts him amidst the top five hitters in the league in isolated power, with a .371 ISO. The other four? Eric Thames, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge. With a .400 BABIP and a third of his fly balls leaving the park, there’s obviously some regression coming. The question is how much.

The Reds go with Tim Adleman (0-0, 2.70) on the mound. Save for two long and loud solo homers by the Cubs, Adleman pitched a solid six innings with four hits on Friday for a no-decision. However, this assignment is viewed as tentative because Rookie Davis might be ready to be activated and pitch. The 29-year- old former independent ball pitcher, Adleman has performed well in two big-league outing this year but is not among the team’s high-priority pitching prospects.

Davis has been on the disabled list since April 12, when he was hit on the forearm by a 96 mph fastball in the act of bunting. He threw a bullpen session Friday and will have one more before he’s activated. He could pitch Wednesday if available, or the Reds could use Thursday’s off day to give the entire rotation an extra day of rest by inserting him thereafter.

Why Bet On Milwaukee?

The Brewers took 3 of 4 from the then-first place Reds a little more than a week ago, thanks in large part to Eric Thames' 5 home runs during the series. The lone game Milwaukee lost in that series was one they probably shouldn't have — a bullpen game for the Reds after starter Brandon Finnegan was forced to leave after one inning. Aside from Suarez, former Brewer Scooter Gennett also hit well in that series, going 3-for- 7 and driving in 2 runs in the lone Reds’ win.

The Brewers made a couple of recent moves. They sent OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis to Triple-A Colorado Springs. The 29-year- old was waived earlier this week after slashing .080/.233/.240 in his first 30 plate appearances. The team also optioned LHP Brent Suter to Triple-A Colorado Springs.

The Brewers had to clear a roster spot for Matt Garza, who returned from the disabled list to start on Monday and Suter was the odd-man out. He tossed a scoreless inning in relief on Sunday and compiled a 4.91 ERA and 5/4 K/BB ratio in 7 1/3 innings with the big league club.

The Brewers are scheduled to start Wily Peralta (3-1, 4.71). Peralta was knocked around for six runs in four innings Friday against the Cardinals. Peralta came into Friday’s outing with a 2.65 ERA through three starts, but he just didn’t have it in this one. Adam Wainwright did most of the damage against him, connecting for a two-run homer in the third and a two-run single in a four-run fourth. Peralta didn’t strike out any of the 20 batters he faced and had just one strikeout in 23 batters faced last time out.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee Pro Baseball Betting Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Peralta beat the Reds in Cincinnati on April 16, allowing two runs and three hits over six. No reason he can’t again.