Arizona is MLB Betting Favorite for Saturday’s Game Against Milwaukee

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,June 9, 2017 9:40, EST in

When the 2017 MLB schedule was released, no one was likely circling this weekend’s Milwaukee at Arizona matchup. Yet if the playoffs started today, both overachieving clubs would be in the postseason. Arizona is coming off a 3 game series against the San Diego Padres, which ended at 3-0. Milwaukee ended a 4 game series against the San Francisco Giants at 2-2. The Diamondbacks will be online MLB betting favorite for Saturday’s game.

Milwaukee at Arizona MLB Betting Prediction & Game Info

When: Saturday, June 10, 10:10 PM ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Probable pitchers (away/home): Junior Guerra/Zack Godley
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
RadioMilwaukee / Arizona
Opening MLB Lines: Diamondbacks favored by TBA

Why Bet On Milwaukee?

The Brewers are down one of their starting pitchers for this series at least as the team placed RHP Matt Garza on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to June 4, with a chest contusion. Garza was involved in a rough collision at first base last weekend with teammate Jesus Aguilar and had to cut short his usual between-starts bullpen session on Tuesday after experiencing lingering soreness. The right-hander might only miss one turn in the rotation.

The Brewers have outscored opponents, 56-17, in the first inning this season, which represents the largest margin in the Major Leagues (+39). The team is batting .329 (83-for- 252, 12 HR) with a .402 OBP, .591 SLG and .993 OPS in the first inning. However, the Brewers have been outscored, 66-30, in the eighth (33-15) and ninth (33-15) innings this season, which is the largest deficit in the Major Leagues (-36). Corey Knebel has at least 1 strikeout in each of his 31 appearances this season (30 IP, 54K), which is the second-longest streak, exclusively as a reliever, to begin a season in the modern era (since 1900).

It’s Junior Guerra (1-0) on the mound. He has made only four starts this season as he landed on the DL following Opening Day and returned in late May. Guerra got the no-decision after giving up two runs (one earned) on six hits (one homer) and three walks with two strikeouts over five innings Monday against the Giants. The split-finger specialist struggled with command against the Giants, throwing only 52 of 90 pitches for strikeouts. That lower-than-usual strike percentage meant Guerra wasn’t able to consistently get to his splitter, a strikeout pitch.

Guerra now owns a great 1.83 ERA through his first four starts (19 2/3 innings) of 2017 despite some discouraging peripherals. One of Milwaukee’s breakouts in 2016, the 32-year- old has a 5.03 FIP and 4.91 xFIP thanks to a .218 BABIP and 96.2 percent strand rate that are sure to regress some — though he did outpitch his FIP by nearly a run in ’16.

Arizona is MLB Betting Favorite for Saturday's Game Against Milwaukee

Why Bet On Arizona?

The Snakes are without one of their starting outfielders in Yasmany Tomas as he has been placed on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to June 3, with groin tendinitis. Tomas is slashing .241/.294/.464 with eight homers and 32 RBIs, but his production has dropped since the injury acted up two weeks ago. He has three hits and 10 strikeouts in his last 25 plate appearances.

“We want to let him get ahead of this,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “It just requires him to get off his feet.” The Snakes also could be without catcher Chris Herrmann for a bit after he left Tuesday’s game against the Padres with a hand injury.

Tomas’ injury allowed the D-backs to recall starter Zack Godley from Triple-A Reno before his 10 days in the Minor Leagues were up, after they optioned him last Thursday. Arizona also recalled outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker and optioned right-hander Braden Shipley to Reno. This is Hazelbaker’s second stint with the D-backs this season. He spent the first month of the year as a backup in left and center field, hitting .308 in 26 at-bats. After he was optioned in early May, he slashed .329/.396/.624 at Reno.

Godley takes the hill in this one. He pitched four innings at Triple-A Reno on Monday before being pulled from the game and told that he was going to rejoin the D-backs. “It is what it is,” Godley said. “It is always disappointing to go down, but all I can do is keep moving forward and keep trying to throw well.” Godley is 1-1 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in six starts while filling in for RHP Shelby Miller (elbow) and RHP Taijuan Walker (blister). Godley has made five consecutive quality starts and has not allowed more than three runs in any of them.

Arizona at Milwaukee MLB Betting Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Snakes have been a very good team at home and have been tearing the cover off the ball there.