How to Bet on Boston at Houston Friday MLB Odds Prediction

Posted by Kenny Bell on Thursday,June 15, 2017 11:40, EST in

It’s a potential playoff preview in the American League and one of the marquee regular-season series of the year when the Boston Red Sox visit the Houston Astros this weekend. Houston appears to be MLB odds favorites against Boston because they have the slight pitching edge on Friday or maybe it might be a pick’em. For the Astros, it seems like a rough start of the week for them, due to their recent losses against local rivals, the Texas Rangers, therefore it ended at 1-2. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have had a good series against the Philadelphia Phillies, which they currently lead 3-0 and will end tonight.

Boston at Houston MLB Odds Preview & Game Info

When: Friday, June 16, 8:10 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Probable pitchers (away/home): Drew Pomeranz/Mike Fiers
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
RadioBoston / Houston
Opening MLB Odds: Astros favored by TBA

Game Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 30°C/86°F
  • Humidity: 64%
  • Precipitation: 4%
  • Wind: 13 mph SSE
  • Cloud Cover: 9%
  • Type of Stadium: Retractable

Why Bet On Boston?

First and foremost, if you’re going following the MLB odds for this game, monitor the status of Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland for this one. He missed Wednesday’s game against the Phillies due to a sore left toe. It’s probably nothing. In addition, the Sox added to their bullpen this week in recalling RHP Hector Velazquez from Triple-A Pawtucket. Velazquez allowed six earned runs over five innings in a spot start last month against the A’s. The 28-year-old right-hander will work in long relief. Velazquez was 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA (7 ER/49.0 IP) and a .189 opponent batting average in nine starts with the PawSox this season.

Also, Boston sent down infielder Deven Marrero. Marrero, 26, hit .157 (13-for- 83) with three doubles and three home runs in 33 games over two stints with Boston this season. He has made 23 starts — 20 at third base and three at second base — for the major league club, with the Red Sox going 15-8 in those games.

For instance, Boston’s Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts have been terrific base-runners this year. The two have combined to go 19 for 22 in stolen-base attempts — Bogaerts was nabbed for the first time on a pickoff Tuesday night — while going first to third on singles and first to home on doubles with regularity. Fangraphs ranks them the second-and third-best baserunners in baseball, respectively, behind only Cincinnati speedster Billy Hamilton.

Who will Pitch on Friday?

At this point, it’s lefty Drew Pomeranz (6-4) on the mound here. Pomeranz allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits and two walks while striking out two over 4.1 innings in Sunday’s 8-3 loss to the Tigers. This was the eighth time in 12 starts this season that Pomeranz has gone fewer than six innings. He’s only pitched seven innings once.

After a three-game stretch of effective pitching that featured swing-and-miss stuff and produced three straight wins, Pomeranz reverted back to the inefficient hurler who can’t make it through five frames. Pomeranz has failed to reach the minimum number of innings to qualify for a win in five of his 12 starts this season. He’s thrown just 60.1 innings, averaging a tick over five per start. Pomeranz has recorded a 4.48 ERA this season, but he’s due for some regression if his peripherals (3.87 FIP, 3.45 xFIP) are to be believed. He continues to generate Ks at a career-high pace (29 percent).

The Astros are MLB odds favorites playing at home against Red Sox.

Why Bet On Houston?

First of all, the Astros have lost outfielder Josh Reddick to the seven-day concussion list.  He crashed into the wall on Monday vs. Texas trying to make a catch and he must be cleared by doctors before he’s available to return to the field. For this reason, this could affect the MLB odds for the matchup. Also, Reddick’s DL stint is retroactive to Tuesday, so he’ll probably be eligible first to return next Tuesday when the Astros are in Oakland. In addition, the two-hole hitter has a .780 on-base plus slugging percentage in 210 at-bats this season.

Consequently, the team called up one of its top prospects to replace him on the roster, outfielder Derek Fisher. Fisher, a top-100 prospect according to MLB.com, was flourishing to the tune of a .335/.401/.608 batting line with 16 home runs, 45 RBI, 13 stolen bases, and 42 runs scored in 60 games this season at the Triple-A level. Fisher, a left-handed hitter, was the Astros’ highest-selected player (37th overall) to sign from the 2014 draft. He will wear No. 21. With George Springer and Reddick both performing well in Houston’s outfield, the move would seem to indicate some competition for Norichika Aoki at a corner outfield spot. Aoki, 35, is batting .273 with one homer and 11 RBIs this year.

Who will Take the Mound?

Mike Fiers will be on the mound. Fiers won after allowing one unearned run on two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings Saturday vs. the Angels. For the first time since one year ago — June 6 to July 7, 2016 — Fiers (4-2, 4.29 ERA) has won three consecutive starts, and the Astros have won four straight games overall that the tall righty has started. Fiers’ command on Saturday was the best he’s had all season, Astros manager A.J. Hinch said.

“This is the best stuff I think he’s brought into a game this season. It was a combination of everything, but it seemed to be everything was working off his changeup. He could throw it at any count. He threw some nasty ones that looked like split-fingers. He could change pace with it and control at-bats and bat speed. … He was in complete control,” Fiers said.

Finally, Fiers has allowed four earned runs over his past 18 1/3 innings as he continues to state his case for a permanent spot in the Astros’ rotation. In fact, his 26 percent homer-to-fly-ball rate is likely to continue to regress toward his career norm of 13 percent, as his hard-hit rate has dropped by five percentage points from last season.

Recent MLB Betting History

Boston Red Sox

  • Won – June 14th @ Philadelphia /  Score: 7-3 / MLB Betting Lines: -118, Total 10
  • Won – June 13th vs Philadelphia /  Score: 4-3 / MLB Betting Lines: -268, Total 9.5
  • Won – June 12th vs Philadelphia /  Score: 6-5 / MLB Betting Lines: -222, Total 11
  • Loss – June 11th vs Detroit /  Score: 3-8 / MLB Betting Lines: -156, Total 10.5
  • Won – June 10th vs Detroit /  Score: 11-3 / MLB Betting Lines: -178, Total 9

Houston Astros

  • Won – June 14th vs Texas /  Score: 13-2 / MLB Betting Lines: -140, Total 9.5
  • Loss – June 13th vs Texas /  Score: 2-4 / MLB Betting Lines: -190, Total 9.5
  • Loss – June 12th vs Texas /  Score: 1-6 / MLB Betting Lines: -119, Total 8.5
  • Loss – June 11th vs LA Angels /  Score: 6-12 / MLB Betting Lines: -175, Total 9
  • Won – June 10th vs LA Angels /  Score: 3-1 / MLB Betting Lines: -186, Total 9.5

Boston at Houston MLB Odds Pick: Over Total

This likely will have a total of 9.5, but I’m still going over between two of the best offenses in baseball.