Toronto at Kansas City ALCS Game 6 MLB Betting Odds Pick

Posted by Daniel Strum on Friday,October 23, 2015 10:04, EST in

The Toronto Blue Jays are still in the running for the last World Series spot online betting fans, thanks to a season-saving performance from starting pitcher Marco Estrada in a do-or-die Game 5 against the Kansas City Royals. Up next on the mound in Toronto’s continuing theme of staying alive in the playoffs is regular-season star David Price, who will be seeking to outduel Yordano Ventura and the Royals in Missouri this Friday. Can the Blue Jays, who are placed in our MLB Playoffs lines as slight road favorites, force a Game 7 showdown, or will the Royals take advantage of playing at home to claim the win? Let’s find out as we take a sweeping online sportsbetting preview of this American League Championship Series Game 6 clash.

Toronto at Kansas City ALCS Game 6 MLB Betting Odds Pick & TV Info

Series Standing: Royals lead series 3-2
Starting Pitchers: David Price vs. Yordano Ventura
Venue: Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Date: Friday, October 23, 2015
Time: 8:07 PM ET
TV: FS1
MLB Lines: Toronto (-128) at Kansas City (+118), OVER/UNDER 7.5

MLB Odds Analysis and Game Preview

It’s hard to imagine that the Jays will give another Estrada-like performance this Friday, but after holding KC to just one run Wednesday, a day after the Royals recorded a 12-run win over Toronto, we can’t rule out another big performance from this motivated Jays team.

After all, the Jays will be giving the ball to Price, who is coming off arguably the best regular season of his career, finishing with a solid 18-5 record, a 2.45 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, including an astounding going 9-1 run down the stretch that allowed Toronto to overtake the Yankees for first place in the AL East.

Unfortunately for the Price, the Royal bats have had a lot of success against him in the regular season. And it hasn’t stopped in the regular season, as the KC hitters used against Price when he started Game 2 of the series on October 17th did just as well, combining for a .293 average against him with a .457 slugging percentage. Even more worryingly, Price cruised through the first 6 innings of that game, but crumbled late and allowed five earned runs that condemned the Blue Jays to a 6-3 loss. That defeat continued the long-running theme of Price’s struggles in the postseason, making him the first starting pitcher to lose his first seven career playoff starts.

With such a dismal record in the postseason games, and a 2015 playoff ERA of 7.02, it goes without saying that Toronto’s bats will need to show up in a big way. So far in in the ALCS, the Blue Jay hitters have totaled 18 runs in their two wins, but just four runs in their three losses, necessitating the need for this offense to come into this game with a winning mentality.

The Royals, on the flipside, will be looking to Yordano Ventura (13-9 record and 4.25 ERA this season, including the playoffs) to deliver the goods as a starter, probably in the same way he did in Game 2 of this series in the coincidental showdown against Price. In that Game 2 start, Ventura pitched 5.1 innings, giving up just three runs, striking out six and walking two to give the Royals the crucial 6-3 victory.

That win came on the back of his decent pitching against the Astros on October 12th, when he led KC to a 9-6 win after he had been on the end of a 2-5 loss to Houston on October 8th. Despite helping the Royals to wins in his last two starts, Ventura is just 0-1 in this postseason with an ERA of 6.57.

Evidently, Ventura will also need some mega support from his hitters. Though the Royals were held to just four hits and one run in the 7-1 Game 5 loss, the Royals have shown the capability to deliver some deliver some big runs in this series. For example, KC entered Game 5 having scored a whopping 18 runs in its past 10 innings, while amassing a whopping 30 hits in its past two games. This offense, led by Alcides Escobar (hitting .400 with a .575 slugging percentage in 40 postseason at-bats), will thus need to step up big time and right from the onset of the game to give the Royals a winning chance.

Key Baseball Betting Trends

  • The Royals are 4-1 at home this postseason
  • The Blue Jays are 2-2 on the road this postseason
  • The Royals are 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games against Toronto
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto’s last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games
  • The Blue Jays have a 30-0 record in games where opponents scored one run or less in their previous game.

Game Betting Verdict

On any given day, Price is a workhorse that can pitch 120-plus pitches with great efficiency, and being the self-critic and competitor he is, I don’t see him allowing himself to have a bad a game.  And with his balls flying hot, the lefty should be able to end his playoff woes with a winning decision over Ventura, who’s not been that good on the mound. Total-wise, I have a feeling that Ventura will be continue to struggle, allowing the Jays’ MLB-leading offense to torch the Royals, while Price will also yield a couple of hits and runs, especially in the early innings. Combined with the fact the both pitchers have delivered OVER totals in two of their last three games, an OVER is our preferred pick.

In short, our MLB Picks for this game are: Toronto claims SU and ATS, total goes high enough for an OVER.