Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Expert Pick & Odds

Posted by Jordan Walterss on September 19, 2016 in

Huge series to start this week in the AL East as the first-place Boston Red Sox take on the Baltimore Orioles, who are three games back as of Monday while leading the wild-card chase by a game over fellow East Division team Toronto. It’s a matchup of young pitchers on Tuesday’s MLB betting.

Here’s a Closer Look at the Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Expert Pick, Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, Sept. 20, 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Camden Yards, Baltimore
Probable pitchers (away/home): Eduardo Rodriguez/Kevin Gausman
TV: MLB Network
Radio: Boston / Baltimore
Opening MLB Lines: TBA

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox seized control of the division over the weekend with a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees, which essentially killed the Bombers’ chances of a wild-card spot. Red-hot Hanley Ramirez had two homers in Sunday’s 5-4 win. Ramirez got the Red Sox on the board in the fifth inning when he launched a C.C. Sabathia offering over the Green Monster for a three-run homer. He then broke a 4-4 tie with a towering solo shot off of Tyler Clippard in the seventh, which proved to be the difference in the ballgame. The Red Sox overcame deficits three times in the series, including the opener, when they scored five in the ninth and Ramirez hit a game-ending three-run homer. Ramirez hit four home runs in the series and is now hitting .294 with 28 homers and 106 RBIs on the season. The Sox have won their last 11 games in which Ramirez drives in at least 1 run.

The Sox hadn’t swept the Yankees in a series of at least 4 games in more than 26 years, when they went 4-0 at Fenway from 6/4-7/90. That was the 28th series of 4+ games between these teams since that time. The Sox are a season-best 21 games above .500. Their 3.0-game lead in the AL East matches their season high (also at the start of play on 6/1). They have been in sole possession of first since the end of play on Sept. 7. Boston has scored 5+ runs 87 times and 10+ runs 20 times, both major league highs. They have recorded 15+ hits in a game 23 times (most in MLB); no other AL team has more than 11 such games.

David Ortiz (116), Mookie Betts (106), and Ramirez (106) are the 13th trio in Sox history to drive in 100+ runs each. No other team has multiple players with 100+ RBIs this season, and 23 teams have none. Ortiz leads the majors in doubles (tied, 47), XBH (82), SLG (.627), and OPS (1.031). He ranks 3rd in RBIs (116), 7th in AVG (.318), 6th in OBP (.404), and T-13th in HR (34). Of course Ortiz is retiring after this season. A total of 3 players have had 100+ RBIs in their final season: Joe Jackson (123 in 1920), Happy Felsch (116 in 1920) & Albert Belle (103 in 2000). The record for HR in a final season is 35 (Dave Kingman in 1986).

As for Rodriguez, (2-7, 4.98) he lasted just 2.1 innings Thursday night, allowing eight hits and four runs in Boston’s 7-5 win over the Yankees. He didn’t walk or strike out a batter. Rodriguez didn’t have command within the strike zone Thursday, leaving balls up over the plate that the Yankees didn’t miss. But, Rodriguez avoided taking the loss as the maligned Boston bullpen held New York in check and the Red Sox eventually battled back to walk off with the win after a five-run ninth inning. Rodriguez has had his issues this season, but he’s been pretty good since the All-Star break. Entering Thursday’s game, the left-hander had a 2.76 ERA in 10 games. Though Rodriguez has mostly pitched well, he's winless since July16.

Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles finished off their season series with AL East foe Tampa Bay over the weekend, splitting four games at Camden Yards. On Sunday, Mark Trumbo hit his major league-leading 43rd homer to break an eighth-inning tie. Manny Machado also connected for the Orioles, who lead the majors with 236 home runs. Baltimore improved to just 16-47 when scoring three runs or fewer. Zach Britton nailed down his 45th save of the season on Sunday against the Rays. Britton yielded a leadoff single to Steven Souza in the top of the ninth, but he retired the next three batters he faced to stay perfect on the year. He is 45-for-45 in save opportunities with a 0.59 ERA and might win the Cy Young Award.

Baltimore saw the return of excellent set-up man Darren O’Day, who was reinstated Sunday from 15-day disabled list after recovering from a right shoulder rotator cuff strain. O’Day pitched for the first time since Aug. 11 against the Rays and allowed a home run to Corey Dickerson on his first pitch.

Gausman (8-10, 3.43) was magnificent stellar last Wednesday vs. Boston, breezing through eight innings and holding the Red Sox to four hits while walking one and striking out six in a 1-0 victory. Only in the seventh inning did Boston put more than one runner on base against Gausman. The righty didn’t allow a hit until the fourth inning and tossed a career-high 120 pitches. Gausman’s five scoreless starts of at least seven innings this year are tied with the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka for most in the AL. He’s pitched well enough to win more games, but has received one or fewer runs of support in 10 of his 27 starts this season. The 25-year- old has been terrific lately, posting 2.06 ERA since Aug. 3.

My Expert Prediction

Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2- 1 in the last 8 meetings in Baltimore.
Red Sox are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore.

Take Baltimore in MLB betting here.