With the NL Central race bunched up, every win against a division foe is important the rest of the way. On Tuesday night, the Milwaukee Brewers are slight road favorites on the Mybookie MLB Lines against the St. Louis Cardinals.
How to Bet Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Lines & Game Info
- When: Tuesday, 7:45 PM ET
- Where: Busch Stadium
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Gio Gonzalez/Michael Wacha
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 104.5 The Team
- MLB Lines: Milwaukee Brewers -110 (Total 10)
- Partly Cloudy: 28°C/83°F
- Humidity: 67%
- Precipitation: 16%
- Cloud Cover: 53%
- Wind: 8 mph S
- Stadium Type: Open
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
Entering Monday, the Cardinals (65-57) hold a single winning percentage point lead over the Cubs in the division (66-58), with the Brewers (64-60) two games back. No other division has a team within two games of first place.
A total of 13 of the Brewers’ next 18 games come against the Cubs and the Cardinals, the two teams ahead of them in the NL Central (and also the wild-card standings, if we presume only one team from the Central is making the wild-card game). Rather amazingly, these two teams hadn’t played since late April. The Brewers went 5-5 against the Cardinals early in the season, with the Brewers accounting for half of the losses the Cardinals had at the end of April, when they were 19-10.
Lorenzo Cain (oblique) remained out of the Brewers’ lineup Monday. Cain misses his third straight start due to an oblique injury. The Brewers are hopeful that he’ll avoid an injured list stint, but that doesn’t seem like a given. Trent Grisham was in center field again Monday.
It’s lefty Gio Gonzalez (2-1) on the mound. Gonzalez allowed five earned runs on five hits and four walks while striking out five across 3.2 innings Wednesday against the Twins. He did not factor into the decision. There was little positive to take away from Gonzalez’s stat line, as he allowed three solo home runs and also struggled mightily with his control.
While this was his shortest outing of the season, Gonzalez has struggled to pitch deep into games since returning from the injured list on July 20, logging 4.1 or fewer innings in three of his five starts. However, his 3.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 54.1 innings this season. The key word will be longevity for Gonzalez vs. St. Louis. The southpaw has been limited to five or fewer innings each of his past three starts and has pitched into the seventh just once in 11 starts.
Among NL contenders, Milwaukee’s rotation has the worst ERA, while only the Mets and Nationals have higher bullpen ERAs than the Brewers.
- Runs: 4.85
- Hits: 8.65
- Walks: 3.77
- Strike Outs: 9.52
- Runs: 5.08
- Hits: 8.81
- Walks: 3.61
- Strike Outs: 9.11
Why Bet on St. Louis?
Both St. Louis (April 17-present) and Milwaukee (March 30-April 16) have logged four-game win streaks in the season series. The last time St. Louis defeated Milwaukee in five straight was May 2-17, 2013. The Cardinals conclude the season by playing 24 of their final 41 games at Busch Stadium (including 15 of the next 18 games), where they are 34-23 with a .596 home win pct. ranking 4th in the NL.
It’s Michael Wacha on the bump for the Cards. Wacha (6-6) took the loss against the Reds on Thursday, giving up two earned runs on five hits over five innings, striking out three and walking two in a 2-1 loss for the Cardinals. Wacha pitched well, but he still got tagged with his sixth loss of the season, as he was outdueled thanks to a brilliant effort from the Reds’ Sonny Gray. It was a welcome bounceback after Wacha got blown up for six earned by the Dodgers in his last start on August 5, but the right-hander still sports an unimpressive 5.44 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 75:44 K:BB across 94.1 innings.
Wacha has lost his spot in the rotation a couple of times this year. He carries a career-high WHIP of 1.633, but he had a pair of successful starts against the Brewers in the first month (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K on March 31st; 6 IP 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K on April 17th) before the wheels fell off his season. Wacha is one of three pitchers all-time to have a 1.000 career winning percentage against the Brewers with 10 or more starts, joining Chan-ho Park (7-0) and Curt Young (5-0). He has held the Brewers to 2 or fewer runs in each of his last four starts against them with all four coming at Miller Park.
Paul Goldschmidt is a Brewers Killer and proved it again during his first few series against them as a Cardinal, racking up 6 home runs in the 10 games he’s seen them this year. That accounts for more than 20% of the home runs Goldschmidt has hit this season, which has been a bit of a disappointment. Without those series against the Brewers, Goldschmidt’s .259/.348/.517 and 9-homer line would have looked a lot more pedestrian.
Goldy’s six home runs against Milwaukee trail only Cincinnati’s Eugenio Suarez (8 in 16 G) in MLB this season, and are tied for his 3rd-most vs. any opponent in a season (8 vs. the Dodgers in 2015; 7 vs. Pirates in 2019; 6 vs. the Dodgers in 2013). Albert Pujols holds the Cardinals single-season record of homers vs. the Brewers (8 in 2010).
- Runs: 4.48
- Hits: 8.20
- Walks: 3.19
- Strike Outs: 8.66
- Runs: 4.25
- Hits: 8.07
- Walks: 3.34
- Strike Outs: 8.58
Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Betting Trends
- Brewers are 7-1 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record
- Cardinals are 16-6 in Wacha’s last 22 starts during game 2 of a series
- Brewers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games played in August
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games when playing as the favorite
- Cardinals are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of St. Louis’ last 14 games against an opponent in the National League
Expert Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 6