Brewers vs Cubs MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Brewers vs Cubs MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on August 2, 2019

The Chicago Cubs acquired outfielder/third baseman Nicholas Castellanos from the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. Castellanos should make his Cubs Wrigley Field debut in Friday’s lone matinee around the majors against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs are favored on the MLB Odds.

How to Bet Brewers vs Cubs MLB Odds & Game Info

  • When: Friday, 2:20 PM ET
  • Where: Wrigley Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Zach Davies/Jose Quintana
  • TV: MLB Network
  • Live Stream: MLB.tv
  • Radio: 670 The Score
  • MLB Odds: Chicago Cubs -150

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

Milwaukee acquired a couple of relievers from the Giants ahead of Wednesday’s deadline in Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black, although Black was sent to Triple-A. Pomeranz, 30, recently was moved by the Giants from the rotation, where he was 2-9 with a 6.10 ERA, to the bullpen, and he delivered a fourth straight scoreless outing on Tuesday night. His average fastball velocity has jumped from 92 mph to 94.5 mph since the switch. He will join the Brewers’ bullpen.

The team also called up outfielder Trent Grisham from Triple-A San Antonio and he debuted Thursday in Oakland. Grisham, the 15th overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft out of a Texas high school in Texas, was batting .300/.407/.603 with 26 home runs, 71 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and 71 runs scored in 97 games this season between Double-A and Triple-A.

Ryan Braun could see time at first base with the Brewers down the stretch. The Brewers traded Jesus Aguilar on Wednesday to the Rays, and it could clear a spot at first – especially against left-handed pitching — for Braun over the last two months. It’s Zach Davies for the Brewers. Davies (8-4) gave up seven runs on four hits and three walks while striking out one through five innings to take the loss against the Cubs last Sunday. Davies only gave up four hits, but he gave up a grand slam and a three-run home run to Kyle Schwarber. Davies has a 3.56 ERA with a 5.8 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9 through 22 starts this season.

Before that dud last weekend, Davis had a 2.54 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cubs.

It appears that Davies’ early-season success was due to a great bit of luck, as his peripheral stats show that he has pitched worse than his surface numbers show. For starters, Davies has an xFIP of 5.20, the worst of his career, and it shows his ERA this season should not be nearly as good as it is. He also has a left-on-base rate of 75.5%, the best of his career, signaling that more base runners should probably be scoring against Davies.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.84
  • Hits: 8.47
  • Walks: 3.80
  • Strike Outs: 9.43
Defense
  • Runs: 4.98
  • Hits: 8.81
  • Walks: 3.45
  • Strike Outs: 9.32

Why Bet on Chicago Cubs?

Chicago’s big trade ahead of Wednesday’s deadline – other than acquiring reliever David Phelps and utilityman Tony Kemp – was outfielder Nick Castellanos from Detroit, and Castellanos should make his home Cubs debut Friday. He’ll mostly play the right field but occasionally left. Castellanos has made a significant improvement in the right field defensively this year, so he’s no longer the liability that he was. Jason Heyward will likely play a lot more center now, leaving less playing time for Ian Happ and Albert Almora – Happ can also play second, though.

The Cubbies made this trade because they have been struggling against left-handed pitchers this year. The Cubs are 9-13 when a left-hander starts against them and have the third-worst batting average against lefties this season, at .235. Castellanos has destroyed lefties throughout his career, especially this season, in which he is hitting .347 against them. His 119 doubles overall the past three seasons trail only Red Sox star Mookie Betts’ total in that span. Castellanos has 37 doubles this season, among the MLB leaders.

Brewers vs Cubs is going to be a close one.

Phelps posted no record with four holds and a 3.63 ERA (7 ER/17.1 IP) in 17 appearances with Toronto this season. Phelps began the season on the injured list as he continued his recovery from 2018 Tommy John surgery that led to him missing all of last year. The versatile Kemp has seen action at second base (29 games), left field (14 games) and center field (11 games) this season and batted .227 (37-for-163) with seven homers, 17 RBI and a .725 OPS.

It’s lefty Jose Quintana for Chicago. Quintana (8-7) lasted just 4.2 innings and did not factor into the decision in Sunday’s 11-4 win over the Brewers. He allowed three runs on four hits and two walks while striking out three. After four innings, it looked like Quintana was easily on his way to win No. 9, as he was staked to a 7-0 lead and had given up just one hit to that point. However, things unraveled in the fifth, as he allowed three hits and two walks before getting the hook with two outs in a game the Cubs needed badly after losing the first two in Milwaukee. Quintana will carry a 4.47 ERA into Friday.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.98
  • Hits: 8.45
  • Walks: 3.70
  • Strike Outs: 9.20
Defense
  • Runs: 4.31
  • Hits: 8.34
  • Walks: 3.27
  • Strike Outs: 8.54

Brewers vs Cubs MLB Betting Trends

  • Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series
  • Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record
  • Under is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago
  • Brewers are 7-13 SU in their last 20 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games this season
  • Cubs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the National League
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs’ last 6 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers 4 – Chicago Cubs 5