Brewers vs. Mets Odds and Betting Prediction

Could the New York Mets trade ace Max Scherzer? He has a no-trade clause but now reportedly is open to waiving it if the Mets don’t turn their season around soon and Scherzer can land with a contender.

He is scheduled to pitch Thursday at home vs. Milwaukee as a heavy favorite on the MLB lines.

Brewers vs. Mets Odds and Betting Prediction | MyBookie Regular Season Baseball Preview

Opening MLB Lines: Mets -210, Brewers +190 / O/U Total 9
Probable pitchers (away/home): Adrian Houser/Max Scherzer

Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 7:10 pm ET
Citi Field | New York City, New York

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

If the Milwaukee Brewers have a lead in the ninth, it’s probably over because of All-Star Devin Williams. Williams retired Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Daniel Vogelbach in order Monday to record his 14th save. The right-hander is now 14-for-15 in save chances this season and sports elite numbers across the board (1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 35:14 K:BB). The 28-year-old’s career high for saves in a season is 15, which he set last year when he took over as the Brewers’ full-time closer after the trade of Josh Hader.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a Major League-best 36-6 (.857) when scoring 4+ runs. They are 13-4 (.765) in 1-run games. The Marlins (19-5, .792) are the only MLB team with a better mark.

It’s right-hander Adrian Houser (2-2,) on the mound here. Houser had been working out of the bullpen over the last couple of weeks, but the Brewers don’t have any days off leading into the All-Star break and will give him another shot in a starting role. Overall, the 30-year-old has a 4.02 ERA (3.96 FIP), 1.54 WHIP, 13 walks and 25 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings pitched.

He has allowed 18 runs (17 earned) on 44 hits (two homers) while walking 11 and striking out 23 in 35 1/3 innings in his seven starts for a 4.33 ERA. But that ERA is somewhat inflated due to a couple of tough outings against Toronto and Oakland. If we exclude those two starts, Houser’s ERA drops to 2.00.

Houser has brought down his career-high line drive rate of 2022 (26.1% down to 21.3%) and increased his groundball rate back to 52.5%. He is in the 64th percentile for expected opponent slugging and walk rate, and 88th percentile for barrels, all key to his performance. However, batters are posting an average exit velocity of 97 mph on his fastball, which isn’t great.

Why Bet on New York?

Could the Mets, with the highest payroll in MLB history, actually fire Buck Showalter this year if things don’t turn around soon? Doesn’t sound like owner Steve Cohen has any plans for that at least during the season. After all, Showalter was the 2022 NL Manager of the Year but there are rumors he has lost the locker room. Not true says shortstop Francisco Lindor.

“He has not lost the team,” Lindor said. “He is still in the front. He is still holding on to the clubhouse. I told him last year, if he posts up, I’ll post up. And he had posted up every day.” Because Lindor is an influential and respected person at every level of the organization, his endorsement might quiet some of the external speculation. GM Billy Eppler added this week that he’s in no rush to make any big moves ahead of the trade deadline.

“We’ve got a decent amount of runway before the [Aug. 1] deadline,” Eppler said. “We hope that we can change the story. If we can, then we can add. If it doesn’t, then we’ll just have to create other opportunities and see what else exists out there.”

The 2022 iteration of the Mets, which featured largely the same roster minus Justin Verlander and some bench additions, won 101 games. This current team is well under .500 and has taken a step back in every aspect of the game.

One player who could be traded if the New York Mets take that route is ace pitcher and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young winner. He reportedly is open to waiving his no-trade clause in pursuit of a championship. The soon-to-be 39-year-old right-hander is currently halfway through his three-year, $130 million contract, so he’d come with huge luxury tax ramifications for a number of contenders.

Scherzer (7-2) picked up the win in last Saturday’s 4-2 victory over the Phillies, giving up two runs on seven hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out eight. The veteran right-hander fired 70 of his 107 pitches for strikes, with 34 called or swinging strikes, en route to his second straight quality start and fifth in his last seven trips to the mound. During that stretch, Scherzer sports a 3.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and stellar 50:4 K:BB over 43 innings. He’s won five straight decisions.

MLB Pick: Mets 4, Brewers 2 | Bet Brewers vs. Mets Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Games

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets | Betting Trends for Game

Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games.
Mets are 52-24 in their last 76 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mets are 35-17 in their last 52 Thursday games.
Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Bet Brewers vs. Mets Today

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