The ESPN Wednesday night game of the week this week is an NL Central affair as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. The MLB Odds are up in the air because the Brewers have yet to officially name their starting pitcher.
How to Bet Brewers vs Pirates MLB Lines & Game Info
- When: Wednesday, 7 PM ET
- Where: PNC Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): TBA/Trevor Williams
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 93.7 The Fan
- MLB Lines: Milwaukee Brewers -125 (Total 9.5)
- Scattered Thunderstorms: 23°C/74°F
- Humidity: 74%
- Precipitation: 49%
- Cloud Cover: 59%
- Wind: 5 mph NW
- Stadium Type: Open
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
Christian Yelich belted his career-high and MLB-leading 38th homer Monday (previous high was 36 in 2018). Since joining the Brewers prior to last season, only the Angels’ Mike Trout has more home runs and a higher OPS.
Outside of Yelich and Mike Moustakas, most of the offense has underperformed this year. Jesus Aguilar regressed hard this year and has since been sent to Tampa Bay. Eric Thames has been better than last year, but still not great. Travis Shaw has taken major steps backward at the plate. Yasmani Grandal has played pretty well but has been in an 18-for-92 (.196) slump over the last month.
This was to be Zach Davies’ start, but the Brewers placed Davies on the 10-day injured list with back spasms on Monday. It’s not clear when Davies suffered the injury or how long he might be sidelined. The team also sent down reliever Aaron Wilkerson and recalled pitchers Jake Faria and Devin Williams.
Williams, 24, struggled as a starter in 2018 in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s taken off this year as a full-time reliever with a 2.21 ERA and 82/30 K/BB ratio over 57 innings between Double- and Triple-A. He’ll be making his major league debut when he gets into a game. Faria was acquired from the Rays for Jesus Aguilar last week.
Milwaukee is thus expected to use a “bullpen” day for this one because it now has three starters on the injured list in Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, and Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers only have two truly healthy starters right now, Chase Anderson, and Jordan Lyles. In the bullpen, it is a struggle to find a reliable option outside of Josh Hader, who has run into issues of his own with the home run ball.
- Runs: 4.78
- Hits: 8.49
- Walks: 3.71
- Strike Outs: 9.48
- Runs: 5.02
- Hits: 8.85
- Walks: 3.48
- Strike Outs: 9.19
Why Bet on Pittsburgh?
Apparently, Manager Clint Hurdle will rest struggling All-Star Josh Bell for a few days. The Pirates are hopeful that some time off will enable him to recharge his batteries. Bell hasn’t homered since July 5 and is batting just .160/.292/.210 over his last 24 games.
On Monday, Pablo Reyes connected for the first pinch-hit home run of his career and the ninth for the Pirates this season. The Bucs had a club-record 10 pinch-hit home runs in 1996 and again in 2001. Only the Giants (11) have hit more PH-homers than the Pirates this season (the Dodgers have also hit nine).
Starling Marte has matched his single-season career-high with 20 home runs (also in 2018). He has homered eight times in 23 games since the All-Star break; only Paul Goldschmidt and Eugenio Suarez (nine apiece) have hit more in N.L.
The Bucs will start Trevor Williams. Williams (4-4) earned the win after giving up three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out two over six innings Friday against the Mets. Williams surrendered two runs in the first inning and another in the third, though he managed to turn in a quality start. Fortunately, his team was able to rally with the help of a five-run fourth inning to provide enough run support for the 27-year-old right-hander to emerge with the victory. Williams owns a 4.75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 77 strikeouts across 94.2 innings this season. Williams has won each of his last two decisions at PNC Park, where has gone 2-1 with a 5.53 ERA in seven starts overall this season.
Williams is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA (32.2ip/5er) in six career games (five starts) vs. the Brewers. He went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA (19.0ip/1er) in three starts in 2018. Williams gave up one run in 7.0ip on 6/18 at PNC Park and won a 1-0 decision over Jhoulys Chacin, allowed two hits over 6.0 shutout innings in a 3-2 decision against Chacin on 9/16 at Miller Park and pitched 6.0 scoreless frames in a 3-0 win over Zach Davies on 9/22 at PNC Park.
- Runs: 4.70
- Hits: 9.29
- Walks: 2.72
- Strike Outs: 7.75
- Runs: 5.46
- Hits: 9.19
- Walks: 3.56
- Strike Outs: 8.77
Brewers vs Pirates MLB Betting Trends
- Brewers are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter
- Pirates are 7-1 in Williams’ last 8 Wednesday starts
- Under is 13-3 in Williams’ last 16 starts during game 3 of a series
- Brewers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the National League
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games on the road
- Pirates are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games this season
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games against Milwaukee
Expert Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates 5