The Milwaukee Brewers are tied for first in the NL Central despite having a negative run differential, which is unusual. The Brewers open a seven-game road trip on Monday night at NL Central last-place team Cincinnati, which actually has a positive run differential. The Reds are slight favorites on the MLB Odds.
Brewers vs Reds MLB Spread & Expert Pick for Monday Night
- When: Monday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Adrian Houser/Tyler Mahle
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: SiriusXM
- MLB Spread: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (Total 10)
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
The Brewers’ 2-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday at Miller Park gave them a 13-13 record in June and moved them into a tie with the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central Division. Based on the first 84 games, Milwaukee’s hitting and bullpen are good enough to make the playoffs. The rotation isn’t, which means general manager David Stearns needs to find another starter in a potentially volatile market.
The Brewers lead the season series 6-3. The Brewers are 18-21 on the road, going 5-6-2 in series play. Outfielder Christian Yelich has hit 29 HR this season, which ties Prince Fielder (2007) for the most in franchise history prior to the All-Star break. Yelich, last year’s NL MVP, was voted into the starting lineup for the 2019 All-Star Game at Progressive Field in Cleveland on July 9 It’s his second All-Star nod (2018) and first start in the Midsummer Classic. Yelich was the leading vote-getter in the fan voting to determine the starting lineup for the National League All-Stars.
The team will be sending Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal as reserves to the All-Star Game and Josh Hader as a member of the All-Star bullpen. Hader has joined Dan Plesac as the only left-handed pitchers in franchise history with at least 20 saves in a season. Plesac reached the 20-save mark four times with the Brewers from 1987-90. Hader has not surrendered a run or a hit over his last 8 appearances. He has 4 walks and 20 strikeouts in 11.1 innings during this stretch.
Yasmani Grandal leads the majors as a catcher in OBP (.393), walks (42), total bases (134), HR (T1st, 17) and extra-base hits (T1st, 30) and ranks among the leaders as a catcher in RBI (2nd, 41), runs (2nd, 39), OPS (2nd, .949), SLG (2nd, .556), hits (2nd, 68) and batting average (6th, .282).
It’s Adrian Houser on the mound, making his 18th appearance and fourth start of the season. Houser last pitched in a start last Wednesday vs. Seattle and took a 4-2 loss (2ip, 4h, 3r, 3er, 3bb, 4k). He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA as a starter (8ip, 8er) and 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 14 relief appearances (25.2ip, 3er). Houser is in his second stint with the team this season (4/22 and 5/3-current).
Team Stats
Offense- Runs: 4.83
- Hits: 8.51
- Walks: 3.86
- Strike Outs: 9.51
- Runs: 4.88
- Hits: 8.75
- Walks: 3.51
- Strike Outs: 9.37
Why Bet on Cincinnati?
The Reds are 3-6 this season vs Milwaukee, including 0-3 here, but won 2 of the last 4 games and 3 of the last 6 games. In 2018 the Reds went 6-13 vs the Brewers, their most losses ever in a season vs. Milwaukee. The Reds were shut out by the Brewers 5 times last year, the most in a season by a single team since the 1960 Pirates shut out the Reds 5 times. The Reds’ 7-game losing streak from 4/17-6/29, 2018 is their longest ever vs the Brewers.
The Reds took two of three over the weekend vs. the Cubs. Raisel Iglesias allowed three runs but closed out the Cubs on Sunday, earning his 14th save of the season. Iglesias was summoned to protect what was a one-run lead in the top of the eighth inning, and after he escaped the inning without issue the Reds plated four runs in the bottom of the frame to give the right-hander some breathing room. He tested that breathing room when Jason Heyward hit a two-out, three-run homer in the ninth, but Iglesias got the final out to end the contest. He has 14 saves on the season but hasn’t been manager David Bell’s first choice in recent weeks and is part of a closer-by-committee.
Starting catcher Tucker Barnhart (oblique) could be facing a lengthy stint on the disabled list. Reds manager David Bell indicated that Barnhart’s oblique injury is severe and could keep him out for much longer than the 10-day minimum stint on the disabled list. Barnhart’s bat has taken a step backward this year with a .191 batting average, five home runs, and 18 RBI in 60 games.
It’s Tyler Mahle on the mound. Mahle (2-8) took the loss against the Angels on Tuesday, completing five innings and giving up four runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four. Mahle got off to a rough start when a deep fly ball to center field off the bat of Tommy La Stella rolled away and resulted in a leadoff inside-the-park home run, then fell further behind in the second inning after allowing a three-run shot to Luis Rengifo. Though the 24-year-old settled down to hold the Angels scoreless over his remaining three innings, the deficit proved to be too much to overcome for the Reds’ offense. Mahle will carry a 4.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 84:20 K:BB into Monday.
This will be his first start of the season against Milwaukee, which he last faced on June 30, 2018, in a 5 2/3-inning, three-run (one-earned) effort.
Team Stats
Offense- Runs: 4.32
- Hits: 7.86
- Walks: 3.10
- Strike Outs: 8.79
- Runs: 3.84
- Hits: 7.70
- Walks: 3.37
- Strike Outs: 9.54
Brewers vs Reds MLB Betting Trends
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati
- Brewers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati
- Brewers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games this season
- Reds are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games against Milwaukee
Expert Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Reds
Milwaukee Brewers 5 – Cincinnati Reds 6
