Cardinals vs Reds MLB Week 16 Odds & Expert Pick.

Cardinals vs Reds MLB Week 16 Odds & Expert Pick

Written by on July 19, 2019

The second half of the MLB season is where things tend to have a way of working themselves out. Divisional races that were close in the first half suddenly turn into a rout for one team or develop into a 2-horse race. We regularly see dark horse teams fall by the wayside in the late stages of the season, as they find it impossible to keep pace with the teams who have money to spend on some talent at the trade deadline.

Through the first half of the season, there was no division tighter than the NL Central, with all 5 teams separated by just a few games. It was a division that looked unpredictable, but that is starting to change now, with 2 of those 5 teams starting to fall off the pace. The Cincinnati Reds are one of those teams, as a poor run of form has seen them lose ground to the leaders. That situation might get even worse this weekend when they go against the St. Louis Cardinals in a 4-game series. The Reds are favored by 1 ½ on Friday, with the run total set at 10.

Cardinals vs Reds MLB Week 16 Odds & Expert Pick

  • When: Friday, July 19 at 7:10 PM EST
  • Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
  • Starting Pitchers: Wainwright vs. Mahle
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Radio: SiriusXM
  • Live Stream: MLB.tv
  • MLB Week 16 Odds: Cincinnati Reds -110 (Total 10)

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Why bet on the St. Louis Cardinals?

It is perhaps a little surprising to see the Cardinals in as the underdog for this one given that they won the opening game of the series on Thursday night by a score of 7-4. This is a team that is on a nice little run of form at the moment, winning 5 of 6 games to stay within 2 ½ games of the Chicago Cubs at the top of the NL Central.

The Cardinals are now at 49-46 on the season, but it is perhaps their road record that sees them in as the underdog for this one, as they are 6 games below .500 away from home at 20-26. If they are to win the division or get into the postseason via the Wild Card, where they are just a ½ game out, their play on the road will need to improve. They will have Adam Wainwright (6-7, 3.99 ERA) on the mound on Friday.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.47
  • Hits: 8.17
  • Walks: 3.33
  • Strike Outs: 8.42

Defense

  • Runs: 4.33
  • Hits: 8.00
  • Walks: 3.33
  • Strike Outs: 8.61

Why bet on the Cincinnati Reds?

While the Reds were hanging around in the Central Division, you never really felt that they were in a position to launch a serious assault on the top spot. Their proximity to the lead was more about the play of the other teams in the division than it was about anything the Reds were doing. Cardinals vs Reds is going to be a close one.

They now look to be finally falling out of it, sitting just 8 games off the pace at 43-51. With the loss to the Cardinals on Thursday night, Cincinnati has now lost 3 in a row to fall to 3-7 in their last 10 games. Defensively, this team has been outstanding, but they have been unable to score enough runs to take advantage of that advantage. The season series between these two now sees the Cardinals with a 5-3 lead. It will be Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.82 ERA) getting the start here.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.37
  • Hits: 8.04
  • Walks: 2.91
  • Strike Outs: 8.73

Defense

  • Runs: 4.06
  • Hits: 7.93
  • Walks: 3.28
  • Strike Outs: 9.63

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Cardinals vs Reds MLB Week 16 Betting Trends

  • Cardinals are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis’ last 12 games this season.
  • Reds are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games when playing at home against St. Louis
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games against an opponent in the National League Central division
  • Reds are 45-74 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons
  • Wainwright is 9-12 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.365
  • Mahle is 1-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.87 and a WHIP of 1.696

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Cardinals vs Reds

These are two teams heading in very different directions at the moment. The Cardinals have been playing good, consistent ball of late, which is why I like them to win again on Friday night.

Score: St. Louis Cardinals 6 – Cincinnati Reds 3

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