Chris Paddack’s rookie season in 2019 was everything the San Diego Padres could have hoped for as they clearly have a young ace on their hands. Here are two props available to wager at Mybookie on Paddack’s and the Padres’ 2020 MLB season – assuming there is one – and an overview.
Chris Paddack Awards Odds & Analysis For 2020 Season
- NL Cy Young Award: Carrasco is +3000
- Odds to win NL West: Padres are +1100 third-favorites
was drafted by the Miami Marlins in the eighth round of the 2015 Major League Baseball draft and out of high school in Texas. On June 30, 2016, the Marlins traded Paddack to the San Diego Padres for Fernando Rodney – a trade the Marlins are going to really regret.
On July 30, 2016, Paddack was diagnosed with a torn UCL while in the minors. He underwent Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t return to the mound until 2018. Paddack was invited to spring training by the Padres in 2019 and dominated, pitching in the Cactus League with a 3-1 record and a 1.76 ERA in 5 games, earning him a spot on the team’s opening day rotation.
On March 31, 2019, he made his major league debut with a start vs. the San Francisco Giants. He allowed one run over five innings and recorded seven strikeouts. That showed how good he would be. Paddack joined Nick Margevicius (2019), Cesar Vargas (2016) and Odrisamer Despaigne (2014) as the only other 3 Padres to allow 1 run-or-fewer through their first 3 ML starts. He posted a 1.93 ERA through his first 9 career starts, the lowest ERA in franchise history through their 1st 9 career starts,
went on to make 26 total starts with a 9-7 record, a 3.33 ERA and a .204 opponent batting average. He posted the lowest WHIP (0.98) in club history, ahead of Randy Jones (1.03) in 1976 and Jake Peavy (1.04) in 2005, and he was 1 of just 6 pitchers to post a sub-1.00 WHIP in 2019 (min. 25 starts), joining Justin Verlander (0.80), Gerrit Cole (0.89), Jack Flaherty (0.97), Jacob deGrom (0.97) and Zack Greinke (0.98). His 2.4 pitching WAR was the 4th-highest among all rookie pitchers in 2019 and 6th among all SD rookies in a season.
Among Padres rookies who have made 25+ starts in a season, Paddack posted the lowest WHIP, ERA (3.33), opponent average (.204), opponent OBP (.255), OPS (.635), base runners/9.0 IP (9.21), BB/9.0 IP (1.98), hits/9.0 IP (6.85) and the best SO/BB ratio (4.94). He led all rookies in 2019 in the preceding categories as well, trailing only Mike Soroka’s ERA (2.86) and opponent OPS (.628).
Overall, Paddack ranked in the top 10 among all ML pitchers (min. 25 starts) in opponent OBP (3rd), WHIP (T-5th), base runners/9 IP (6th), opponent AVG (7th) and hits/9.0 IP. He posted a 6.80 SO/BB ratio (68/10) in his 11 starts at home in 2019, the 3rd-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio of any rookie in their home starts since 1906 (min. 50.0 IP, 10 starts).
71.4 1st pitch strike percentage led the majors (min 140.0 IP), ahead of Max Scherzer (70.4), Madison Bumgarner (69.5) and Masahiro Tanaka (68.7).
He hit a rookie wall briefly in going 1-3 with a 7.57 ERA across 6 starts from July 23 to August 23 before going 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA across his final 4 starts of the season from August 29-September 17. He allowed 3 earned runs-or-fewer in 9 of his 10 outings against NL West opponents, going 2-1 with a 3.17 ERA and .217 opponent AVG.
threw his fastball 61.1 percent of the time last year, with his changeup and curveball rounding out the final 28.5 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively. And while opponents were able to hit .267 off his curveball, they produced just a .204 average off his fastball and .190 average off his changeup. Paddack’s changeup produced the weakest contact of all his pitches, 85.3 percent.
There will be no workload restrictions on him this year in San Diego.
