Cleveland vs Boston ALDS Game 3 Free Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on October 10, 2016 in

The Boston Red Sox opened the playoffs as the American League pennant favorites, but the Sox could see their season end on Monday as they are down 2-0 to the Cleveland Indians as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3. The two were supposed to play Game 3 there on Sunday but it was postponed by rain. The Sox are favored in MLB odds to extend the series.

Here’s a Look at the Cleveland vs Boston ALDS Game 3 Free Pick & TV Info

When: Monday, Oct. 10, 6 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
Probable pitchers (away/home): Josh Tomlin/Clay Buchholz
RadioCleveland / Boston
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -150, Indians +130 (9.5)

Why Bet on Cleveland?

Tribe manager Terry Francona plans to continue to be aggressive with his bullpen moves in the ALDS, even as Sunday’s postponement creates a potential backlog of games between the Indians and Red Sox this week. Francona had the freedom to use his two best relievers, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, for 40 pitches each in the series opener because he knew he had the luxury of an off day Saturday. Now that the Indians and Sox are scheduled to play three straight days, that’s no longer the case.

Pitching coach Mickey Callaway said the Indians want Miller to pitch in”the biggest situation.”

“That’s usually when we use him,” said Callaway. “The hard part would be to not bring him in that situation, and give up a lead, or get down by a few runs, and then never get to use him.”

Since acquiring him at the trade deadline, the Indians have used Miller whenever the game is close, regardless of what inning. Miller only recorded three saves in 26 outings for Cleveland this year. But using Miller with the game on the line has preserved plenty of Cleveland victories including Game 1 when he was employed in the fifth inning.

The bottom third of the Indians’ batting order has more RBIs so far (5) than the entire Boston lineup. From starters Trevor Bauer to Corey Kluber to relievers Miller and Allen, the Indians have pitched great.

It’s Josh Tomlin on the mound here. There’s the Tomlin who logged an 11.48 ERA in August and the Tomlin who compiled a 1.69 ERA in September. Tomlin limited the opposition to a .216/.214/.330 clip in September. He did not walk a batter. In August, the right-hander surrendered a .365/.394/.690 slash line in six starts. Tomlin pitched well once in August. He held Boston to three runs on seven hits over 7 2/3 innings on Aug. 15. He did serve up home runs to David Ortiz and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Why Bet on Boston?

The majors’ best offense has to wake up at some point. Doesn’t it? This could be the final game in the Hall of Fame career of Red Sox DH Ortiz. He had the best final season of any player ever, batting .315 with 38 home runs to hike his career total to 541 and leading the league in doubles (48), extra-base hits (87), RBIs (127), slugging (.620) and OPS (1.021). Ortiz is just 1-for- 8 in two postseason games against the Indians.

As the Red Sox won 18 games in a 24-game stretch in September, including 11 in a row, they emerged as the favorite to take the American League pennant. But their momentum began to erode when they coasted through the last five days of the season, and after a 6-0 dismantling by the Indians in Game 2, typically brash second baseman and de facto captain Dustin Pedroia humbly said they had “lost who we are.”

Boston goes with Clay Buchholz. Sunday’s rainout of Game 3 presented an opportunity for Sox manager John Farrell to skip Buchholz’s turn in the rotation and bring Cy Young Award candidate Rick Porcello back on three days’ rest after he threw only 72 pitches in a Game 1 loss Thursday at Progressive Field. But Farrell opted not to.

Buchholz, the third-longest tenured player on the Red Sox roster, had a difficult time keeping his spot in the rotation this season, twice getting demoted to the bullpen. He finished the regular season 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.328 WHIP. But in five September starts he was 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.151 WHIP. Buchholz, who went 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA in eight starts down the stretch, has pitched particularly well with Sandy Leon behind the plate. Buchholz has made five combined postseason starts, in 2009 and 2013, when the Red Sox won the World Series. He has not recorded a decision, posting a 4.21 ERA.

My Free Prediction

Red Sox are 5-1 in Buchholz’s last 6 starts.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Buchholz’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Indians are 1-4 in Tomlin’s last 5 Monday starts.
Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Indians are 0-4 in Tomlin’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.

Take Boston and the over in MLB betting.