Cubs vs Reds

Cubs vs Reds – MLB Odds & Picks

Written by on July 30, 2020

While the Cubs’ Yu Darvish struggled in his 2020 debut, the Reds’ Luis Castillo was dominant – yet didn’t get a win. They face off Thursday in the series finale between the clubs in Cincinnati. The Reds are favored on the MLB odds.

Cubs vs Reds – MLB Odds & Picks

How to Bet Cubs at Reds MLB Odds & TV Info Why Bet on Chicago Cubs?

There was some concern about Cubs third baseman and leadoff man Kris Bryant after he missed Tuesday’s game with some elbow discomfort, but Bryant was back in the lineup Wednesday. Starting pitcher Jose Quintana (thumb) threw a successful 28-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday. It was the first mound workout for Quintana since he required a nerve pair procedure for a cut on his left thumb back in early July. He’s scheduled for another (longer) bullpen session Saturday.

In Tuesday’s win, the Cubs scored in seven consecutive innings, from the third through the ninth. It was the first time Chicago scored in seven-straight innings in a game since September 6, 2008, at Great American Ball Park against the Reds in a 14-9 victory.

Also Tuesday, Javier Baez collected 10 total bases thanks to a double and his seventh-career two-homer game. He became just the fifth Cubs shortstop since 1901 to collect 10 or more total bases in a game, and the first to do so since Shawon Dunston recorded 11 total bases, June 4, 1989 at St. Louis.

Anthony Rizzo has reached base safely in each of his last 11 games at Great American Ball Park dating to June 23, 2018, with a .426 on-base percentage in that stretch. His 28 home runs against the Reds are his most against one club. Cubs batters have averaged 4.22 pitches per plate appearance, second-most in the majors behind San Diego (4.32). Bryant has averaged 4.89 pitches per plate appearance, fourth in the majors.

It’s Yu Darvish on the mound, and he allowed three runs on six hits in four innings against the Brewers last Saturday. He struck out five and walked none. Yu makes his ninth career start against the Reds. He faced Cincinnati a season-high five times during the 2019 campaign (including highs of 31.1 IP and 45 SO). Darvish posted a 4.76 ERA (6 ER/11.1 IP) in two outings at Great American Ball Park in 2019.

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds got two starters back Wednesday in second baseman Mike Moustakas and center fielder Nick Senzel. Both had been out since Sunday when they didn’t feel well, but both tested negative for COVID-19 since and were allowed to rejoin the Reds after filing an appeal.

Moustakas had been on the injured list so to make room for him, the Reds optioned catcher Tyler Stephenson to their alternate training site. Stephenson had a big debut on Monday, going 2-for-2 with a walk, a homer, two RBI, and a run scored. He became only the third Reds batter to produce a home run in his first MLB plate appearance, joining pinch hitter Ted Tappe (9/14/50 at Brooklyn) and Clyde Vollmer (5/31/42/g2 vs Pit).

Joey Votto ranks third among all active players with 35 HR and 119 RBI against the Cubs, trailing in both categories only Albert Pujols (57-146) and Ryan Braun (39-137).

It’s All-Star Luis Castillo on the mound. Castillo struck out 11 batters over six innings Saturday vs. the Tigers, two shy of his career high. His changeup and slider remained his best pitches, but his fastball also touched 99 mph.

Castillo threw 91 pitches, with 64 strikes. His 24 swinging strikes were tied for fourth-most in any of his outings and two shy of his all-time high. Half of Detroit’s swings and misses (12) came via Castillo’s changeup. Castillo’s two-seam fastball averaged 97.6 mph and peaked at 99 mph. His four-seamer topped at 98.7 mph and garnered seven whiffs.

“He really impressed me,” said Reds catcher Curt Casali. “He hopped right back on the wagon. He did what an All-Star does. He controlled the zone, he threw a lot of strikes, he had his changeup going. I thought his slider was the best I’ve seen it in quite some time.

Castillo struck out Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera three times. But Cabrera got revenge by hitting a go-ahead, two-run homer to left field off Michael Lorenzen with two outs in the top of the seventh, as Castillo was stuck with a no-decision.

Game Trends
  • Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 58-25 in their last 84 Thursday games.
  • Reds are 5-13 in their last 18 during game 4 of a series.
  • Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 32-14-5 in the last 51 meetings in Cincinnati.
Expert Prediction
  • Reds 4, Cubs 2
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