The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to win the NL West Division yet again, but the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are both playing better than expected. Likely won’t matter in the division but one of the two could be a wild-card team this year. They open a series in Petco Park on Monday with the Friars as MLB betting favorites.
Diamondbacks vs Padres MLB Spread & Pick
- When: Monday, 10:10 PM ET
- Where: Petco Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Luke Weaver/Chris Paddack
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 97.3 The Fan
- MLB Spread: San Diego Padres -1.5 (Total 6.5)
Arizona took two of three in San Diego from April 1-3, with the Padres claiming the finale 4-1 to avoid the sweep. That was notable as it was the game in which Manny Machado hit his first homer as a Padre, a two-run shot in the seventh. The two-out homer came off former Padres farmhand Matt Andriese.
The teams played four games in Arizona from April 11-14 and the Padres won three of four. The Snakes took the finale 8-4 to avoid the sweep behind seven strong innings from Zack Greinke. David Peralta hit a pinch-hit three-run homer in the sixth inning with two outs off reliever Matt Wisler. It was Peralta’s first career pinch-hit homer. Machado got that game off.
Why Bet on Arizona?
D-backs baserunners have been successful on 14 straight stolen base attempts going back to the second inning on April 19 @ Cubs (last caught stealing was Eduardo Escobar in the first inning on April 19 at Cubs). The D-backs’ 89.3 stolen base success rate (25 SB in 28 ATT) is the single-season best since 1951.
Second baseman Wilmer Flores is considered day-to-day after being diagnosed with a right foot contusion. Flores was hit by a pitch during Sunday’s game against the Giants but was able to avoid any serious injury. Probably won’t play Monday, though.It’s Luke Weaver (3-2, 3.16) on the mound. Weaver allowed three runs on seven hits with five strikeouts and two walks across six innings while taking a loss against the Pirates last Tuesday. The 25-year-old didn’t pitch poorly, but his counterpart, Joe Musgrove, was great.
“You’re going to have games where you don’t feel amazing, you’re going to have some guys on base and you’re trying to fight to stay above water,” Weaver said. “I felt like I was able to do that for the most part.”
Weaver has been very reliable this season, as this was his fourth straight quality start and fifth of the season. He has a 1.11 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 51.1 innings this year.
Weaver faced the Padres on April 12 and took the loss. He retired nine straight from the fourth to the seventh inning before giving up back-to-back, one-out doubles to Wil Myers and Fernando Tatis Jr. Myers scored as Tatis just missed a home run, his drive hitting the base of the right-field fence. Weaver lasted 6 1/3 innings and allowed two runs on five hits, with eight strikeouts and two walks.
In 4 career starts vs. Padres, he is 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA (6 ER in 23.2 IP), .231 opponent average and 26 strikeouts. In Weaver’s past three road starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.98 ERA (2 ER in 18.1 IP), .194 opponent average and 24 strikeouts.
Why Bet on San Diego?
The Padres lost three of four at home over the weekend to Pittsburgh. Sunday’s 6-4 loss gave the Padres a losing record (23-24) for the first time this season. The 46 games at .500 or better was the longest into a season they had gone without dipping below even since 2007.
They have hit 42 HR with nobody on base (3rd-most in the National League) and 24 HR with runners on base (T-7th-most in the NL). San Diego has 40 homers in wins this year but their 26 homers in losses are the 2nd-most homers in the National League in losses.
It’s good-looking rookie Chris Paddack (3-2, 1.99) on the mound for the Padres. Paddack struggled against the Dodgers last Tuesday, giving up six runs (three earned) on five hits and one walk in 4.2 innings to take the loss. He struck out three. Still, Paddack’s ERA sits below 2, and opponents have a .146 batting average against him, the lowest mark in the majors.
Paddack became the first MLB pitcher to have 46 strikeouts to just 29 baserunners allowed through 7 games to start his career, and his 1.55 ERA was the lowest ever by a Padres starting pitcher through his first 7 starts and the lowest overall by a starter since Kyle Hendricks (2014). Paddack became the 1st pitcher since 1906 to allow 4-or-fewer hits in each of his first 7 career starts.
San Diego is still without stellar rookie shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. He was placed on the injured list in late April with a left hamstring strain, but he could return at some point this week. Offensively, the Padres have suffered since Tatis was injured. Ty France has had an opportunity to step up and play on most days but has struggled in his first taste of major league pitching.
The young infielder owns a .638 OPS so far in 2019 after hitting .211 in his first 57 at-bats for the Padres.
Diamondbacks vs Padres MLB Betting Trends
- Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 Monday games
- Padres are 6-1 in Paddack’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest
- Diamondbacks are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games this season
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona’s last 7 games against an opponent in the National League West division
- Padres are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego’s last 9 games at home
Expert Final Score Prediction for Diamondbacks vs Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks 3 – San Diego Padres 4