With many of the divisions beginning to look as though they are about to be locked up by the current leaders, the focus for many teams in the chasing pack will turn to the Wild Card. Not everyone loved the introduction of the WC to the baseball landscape, but you cannot deny that it has certainly made things a good deal more exciting. Teams that now look to have no shot at running down the division leader can still go out and take a run at those two coveted Wild Card spots.
There are a lot of teams still in contention at this stage of the season, so losses tend to be a little more harmful with the end of the season now very much on the horizon. The Arizona Diamondbacks are still in the Wild Card hunt, but there are several teams ahead of them that they need to catch. They will start to try and close that gap this week with a road trip to Miami to face the woeful Marlins. It is Miami who is favored by 1 ½ in their own ballpark, with the run total for this one set at 7 ½.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins MLB Lines & Game Preview
- When: Monday, July 29 at 7:10 PM EST
- Where: Marlins Park, Miami
- Starting Pitchers: Kelly vs. Smith
- TV: ESPN+
- Radio: SiriusXM
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Lines: Miami Marlins -110 (Total 7.5)
Why bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks?
As we mentioned earlier in this piece, there really is no path to the top for the Diamondbacks in the NL West, simply because the LA Dodgers have now opened up a gap that no-one in the division is going to be able to close down. The Diamondbacks, who are sitting at 53-53 on the season, are now 15 ½ games out of first in the West and are also now down in 3rd, a game back of the San Francisco Giants. It really is the Wild Card that is the only option for this team, as they are sitting 3 ½ games out of the final spot there.
The problem is that they don’t look ready to make an assault on one of those spots, winning just 4 of their last 10 games. Included in that run is losing 2 of 3 to the Marlins over the weekend. The D-Backs are 30-27 on the road and will have Merrill Kelly (7-10, 4.22 ERA) on the mound.
- Runs: 5.16
- Hits: 9.10
- Walks: 3.20
- Strike Outs: 8.41
- Runs: 4.50
- Hits: 8.47
- Walks: 3.12
- Strike Outs: 8.81
Why bet on the Miami Marlins?
It has been a very poor season for the Miami Marlins, who are currently sitting at 40-63, but that poor showing is not completely unexpected. In comparison to how things have gone over the course of the year, the current run of 5-5 in their last 10 games is actually seen as a sign of improvement.
The main issue for this team is immediately obvious when looking at their stats, with their 367 runs scored on the season being far and away the worst number in the National League. This is a team that has now won 4 of their last 5, winning by playing solid defense, so we can perhaps expect another low score here. The Marlins will start Caleb Smith (6-4, 3.30 ERA) on Monday.
- Runs: 3.55
- Hits: 8.02
- Walks: 2.33
- Strike Outs: 8.96
- Runs: 4.59
- Hits: 8.12
- Walks: 3.61
- Strike Outs: 8.68
Diamondbacks vs Marlins MLB Betting Trends
- Diamondbacks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National League
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games against an opponent in the National League East division
- Marlins are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games this season
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games at home
- Marlins are 83-81 against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons
- Diamondbacks 30-27 against the money line in road games this season
- Smith is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 11.25 and a WHIP of 1.750
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Diamondbacks vs Marlins
I think we are looking at a tight game here with runs being at a bit of a premium. I like the UNDER and I also like the D-Backs ATS.
Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3 – Miami Marlins 2