Home Run Derby MLB Free Picks & Odds Analysis

Posted by Henry Watkins on July 11, 2016 in

The All-Star game is what gets the majority of the attention during the MLB break, but it’s fair to say that it’s the home run derby that is very much the fan favorite. There is something exciting about watching these great hitters jacking long ball bombs out of the park in search of home run immortality. We have a field of 8 batters set to go on Monday night at Petco Park in San Diego, and any one of them could walk away with the home run crown. Let’s take a quick look at each of them, as well as their current betting lines here at MyBookie.ag.

Analyzing The Home Run Derby MLB Free Picks & Odds



Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins +275)

The Miami Marlins are having a surprisingly good season so far, and a lot of that is due to the power hitting of Stanton. He has hit 20 HR so far this season, and when he cranks them out, they go far. His average home run is over 420 yards, which may explain why he is the favorite for Monday night.

Mark Trumbo (Orioles +325)

Trumbo led the way in home runs in the first half of the season with 28, so it’s something of a surprise that he is not the favorite to win it all. His HR’s average a touch over 409 yards, so he doesn’t quite have the power that Stanton has been flashing this season.

Todd Frazier (White Sox +450)

This is a man who knows how to compete in the home run derby, as he won it last year, and was the runner-up the year before. He hit 24 through 2 rounds last year, which was enough to win it all. He has 25 HR so far this season, and has to be considered one of the firm favorites.

Adam Duvall (Reds +575)

Duvall has hit 23 HR through the first half of the season, but he does not have the distance of most other guys in this field, as his average distance is sitting just under 400 yards.

Wil Myers (Padres +600)

Myers is a little way down the list with 19 HR in the first half of the season, but at over 405 yards per bomb, he does flash quite a bit of power. The apex on his HR’s is lower than most, which means that his dingers are more like long line drives.

Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies +850)

Gonzalez, like Wil Myers, has 19 HR’s through the first half of the season, and he is also up there in average distance at 423 yards per bomb. It is worth remembering, though, that he plays in Denver, where the air is thin, and balls fly longer distances quite easily.

Corey Seager (Dodgers +850)

Definitely has to be considered a long shot, as he only has 17 HR’s so far this season, and 6 of those were considered to be of the “just made it” variety. He is likely to be overpowered by bigger hitters.


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Robinson Cano (Mariners +900)

Cano is a former home run derby winner, picking up the title back in 2011. He has 21 HR’s through the first half, but 11 of those fall into the “just made it” category. Definitely a deserved outsider in this group.

For what it’s worth, my money will be going on Mark Trumbo this year. Although Frazier is always a danger.