Houston at New York MLB Odds Analysis

Posted by Eric Williams on April 7, 2016 in

After losing their regular season opener against Houston 5-3 on, the New York Yankees will look to bounce back and get the win in the finale of their three-game set on Thursday night. The Astros scored five runs on just six hits on Tuesday, including a home run by gifted shortstop Carlos Correa. Correa hit the game-tying home run in sixth inning off Masahiro Tanaka and reached base on a controversial throwing error by New York’s Dellin Betances in the eighth inning. With Jose Altuve on second base and one out, Correa rolled a 1-2 pitch to the first-base side of the mound. Betances made a high throw over first baseman Mark Teixeira’s head into right field and Altuve scored the tiebreaking run. New York claimed that Correa interfered with Teixeira and played the remainder of the game under protest.

“I was running,” Correa said. “I swung and I was out in front so I started running the whole time. You don’t focus on the line and try to get to the base. That’s what I tried to do. Maybe I was inside the line.”

Now, let’s find out if the Yanks can pick up a much-needed victory over the young and blossoming ‘Stros. Find out the updated MLB betting run lines here.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees MLB Odds Analysis

When: Thursday, April 07 – 4:05 PM EST
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
TV: ROOT Sports Southwest, MLBN
Live Stream: MLB Stream

Probable Starters:

Houston – Mike Fiers (R)
New York – Nathan Eovaldi R

Why Bet the Houston Astros

The Astros are a good bet in this contest because they’re young, explosive and hungry!

Mike Fiers (5-9, 3.89 ERA) went 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 10 games, including nine starts, after coming to the Astros from Milwaukee in a July trade last season. Fiers set new career highs in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts, but has never faced the Yankees. While Houston has gone 4-0 in their last four games against teams from the American League East and 6-2 in their last eight road games against a right-handed starter, the Astros are also just 1-4 in Mike Fiers’ last five starts against a team with a losing record.

Why Bet the New York Yankees

Because they have a really good starting pitcher and already have some desperation!

Nathan Eovaldi will get his second season with the Yankees underway in this contest looking to improve on his fine, 14-win season from a year ago (14-3, 4.20 ERA). Eovaldi’s win total tied for eighth in the AL, but the veteran right-hander didn’t face the Astros last year. For his career, Eovaldi has gone 1-0 with a stellar 0.90 ERA in three career starts against Houston. The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 25-11 in their last 36 Game 3 contests of a series and that’s good. The bad news is that New York is just 1-5 in their last six home games and 0-4 in their L/4 games against teams from the AL West.

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Expert Prediction and Pick

For this contest, I like a semi-desperate (yes, already) Yankees ballclub to get the narrow win by smacking Mike Fiers around and scoring just enough runs to make a win hold up. I know the Astros are 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York, but the ‘Stros are also just 21-43 in their last 64 road games and 2-5 in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Apparently, New York loves playing on a Thursday, having gone 25-10 in their last 35 Thursday games while also going 8-0 in Nathan Eovaldi’s last eight starts during Game 3 of a series and a blistering 8-2 in Eovaldi’s last 10 starts overall.

My final score prediction is New York 4 Houston 3.