Kansas City at New York World Series Game 4 Odds Analysis

Posted by Alex Murphy on Saturday,October 31, 2015 12:32, EST in

Just two days after claiming the scalps of the New York Mets in Game 2 of the World Series, the potent cocktail of lethargy and complacency saw the Kansas City Royals outclassed in Game 3 on Friday Night, allowing New York to halve the series lead to 2-1.

As things stand in the MLB online betting odds, today’s Game 4 will therefore be the most important game of the series. If the Mets win it, the momentum built could be unstoppable when the series goes back to Kansas City. If the Royals win it, it would give them a stranglehold of the series and almost guarantee them winning the Championship, as it will put them within one win of claiming the MLB Gold, something that would be easily achievable back in Missouri.

Bearing that in mind, here is an online betting MLB preview of this all-important clash that has dire ramifications on the race to win the prestigious MLB Championship.

Kansas City Royals at New York Mets World Series Game 4 Odds Analysis

Series Standing: Royals lead series 2-1
Starting Pitchers: Chris Young vs. Steven Matz
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, New York
Date: Saturday, October 31, 2015
Time: 8:07 PM ET
TV: FOX
MLB Lines: KC Royals (+135) at NY Mets (-145), OVER/UNDER (7.5)

After falling down two games to none, the Mets showed character, securing a resounding 9-3 win in Game 3 on Friday. Often, home crowds aren’t much of a factor in baseball betting like in other sports, but going by the way the Mets fed off their hearty support at Citi Field,  it is scary to think how that crowd is likely to frustrate KC once again tonight.

That said, the pressure of losing one game on the road and the prospect of facing a tough crowd is nothing new to the Royals. They have been in this position severally and ended up doing just fine.

Plus, the Royals will have one of their most trusted starters taking to the mound in Chris Young. The veteran pitcher, a former Met, was the star of the show in Game 1 of this series, being called in emergency relief and pitching three scoreless innings to give KC the victory in a walk-off fashion in the 14th. In that brief stint on the field, the Mets were helpless against Young, as he dazzled them with his unique ability to change eye levels and speeds. The same kind of performance can therefore be expected from him in Game 4.

The Mets can, however, take comfort in the fact that they know his pitching style and can prepare for it more adeptly when they face him tonight. Apart from that, the Mets will need their own starter, Steven Matz, to get going in  a good way. Matz has been a questionable player on the mound and his inexperience could work against him when he faces a veteran-led KC squad. The young lefty has a 3.72 ERA and is yet to go more than five innings in a start in his 9.2 postseason innings. Nonetheless, he could be due for a good game, as he will be going against a KC team that has multiple lefty hitters.

In addition, Young can only go a maximum of six inning on the hill since he already pitched the three innings in Game 1. This could also be an added advantage to the Mets, who are likely to go it hard against the Royals’ bullpen once Young is out of the game.

As you’d expect, both offenses will have a role to play in this game, but of most importance will be the players who take to the mound, so  the game is likely to go to the team with the best pitching staff.

Key Betting Trends

•    Kansas City is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
•    New York is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
•    Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
•    New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
•    Kansas City is 4-1 in its last 5 games against Kansas City
•    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 8 games
•    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games on the road
•    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 5 games

Royals at Mets World Series Game 4 Predictions

Though Matz is a talented young arm, this game is likely to prove an uphill task, keeping in mind his struggles with going the distance when starting on the mound. Conversely, Young was dynamite in relief in Game 1 of the World Series, and going by the way the Mets barely had any answers for him, he is likely to frustrate them once again in a big way in his six innings. If the Royals can have a good scoring cushion by the time their bullpen takes over,  as we expect them to do, then the late valiant efforts will probably act as consolation runs. So, simply put, go with Kansas City (+135) to take an early lead that would sustain them to the very end despite come-back efforts from New York late in the game. Total-wise, another high-scoring duel looks likely, so an OVER (7) total should be due here.