The Miami Marlins are the least-talented team in the National League and have by far the worst run differential. Yet, they could win a series in St. Louis by taking Wednesday’s matinee. The Cards, however, are sizable MLB betting favorites.
How to Bet Marlins at Cardinals MLB Odds & TV InfoMLB.tvRadio: 940 AM (Miami) / 1120 AM (St. Louis)Opening MLB Lines: Cardinals -200, Marlins +185 (8.5)
Why Bet on Miami?Let’s quickly discuss Miami’s upset win Tuesday in St. Louis. The worst pitcher in baseball this year in terms of money units lost was the Marlins’ Jose Urena because he had been 0-7 and the Marlins had lost all 12 of his outings. In the 7-4 victory Tuesday, Urena up four runs on 10 hits and a walk but managed to collect his first victory of the season opposite Cards ace Carlos Martinez. Sometimes you just never know! The 10 hits Urena allowed was a season high, and it was his shortest outing since April. Yet he still won. Urena’s 14 straight starts without a win dating to last year was the longest such streak in the Majors since Chris Capuano went 19 starts from May 13, 2007-June 3, 2010.Kyle Barraclough retired all three batters he faced to notch the save for the Marlins on Tuesday. Barraclough’s first save opportunity since being named the closer was easy as he had a three-run lead to work with and was facing 8-9-1 in the Cardinals’ order. He needed just 13 pitches to nail down the victory. He’s given up just one hit and no runs over his last 11 appearances.
Who Will Start for the Marlins?The original probable for this one listed Marlins rookie Elieser Hernandez as the starter. However, reports are that Hernandez has been moved back to the Marlins’ bullpen. Hernandez made it just three innings in his last start Friday against the Diamondbacks, yielding five earned runs on two walks and five hits — including three homers. The Rule 5 Draft pick holds a 4.29 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 10/3 K/BB ratio in 21 innings (four starts, two relief appearances) this season.The starter is thus expected to be right-hander Trevor Richards, who was called up from Triple-A New Orleans on Wednesday. Richards is ranked 19th among Top 30 Marlins prospect list. After a brief stint with the Marlins early this season, Richards had 2.06 ERA, 37 strikeouts and just 4 walks allowed through 39 1⁄3 innings pitched in Triple-A.
Why Bet on St. Louis?Former closer Greg Holland (hip) threw another bullpen session on Tuesday and could begin a rehab assignment soon. Holland was placed on the disabled list last Tuesday with a right hip impingement. Since then, he’s completed two bullpen sessions. Assuming he doesn’t feel sore in the coming days, he could begin a rehab assignment this weekend in his road back to the St. Louis bullpen. Holland has been a bust thus far for the Cards with a 9.45 ERA and 2.63 WHIP in his 13 1/3 innings.While Tuesday’s loss was ugly, the team did activate All-Star catcher Yadier Molina from the 10-day disabled list before the game. He missed a month with a traumatic hematoma in his groin. Molina was 1-for-4 with an RBI in Tuesday’s loss. With Thursday being a day game after a night, Molina might sit out.The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800 win pct.) in games they homer in at Busch Stadium this season. Only Milwaukee & Philadelphia (both 16-3; .842) have better marks among NL clubs when homering at home. Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna spent parts of five seasons in a Marlins uniform (2013-17) where he was a two-time National League All-Star (2016-17). He was acquired in trade this offseason.
Who Will Take the Mound for the Cardinals?The Cards go with journeyman Miles Mikolas (6-1), who has been a revelation after spending the past few years in Japan. He’s an early NL Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Mikolas lost after allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits, a walk and a hit batter to go with two strikeouts over six innings vs. the Pirates last time out.Mikolas ran into some tough luck — mostly because James Taillon was nails over eight innings on the other side. The Cardinals probably would take Mikolas’ effort every time. Mikolas has a 2.49 ERA over 11 starts, with a stellar 53-to-8 K/BB ratio over 72 1/3 innings. In seven out of 11 starts this season Mikolas has allowed two runs or fewer while going at least six innings. He’s sporting an excellent 1.00 WHIP while holding opponents to a .234 batting average. Mikolas hasn’t faced the Marlins.
Latest MLB Betting Trends
- Miami is 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
- Miami is 2-6 SU in the last 8 games
- The total went OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games
- St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games
- St. Louis is 1-4 SU in the last 5 games when playing Miami
- The total went UNDER in 7 of St. Louis’s last 10 games at home