Marlins vs Nationals MLB Odds & Game Analysis.

Marlins vs Nationals MLB Odds & Game Analysis

Written by on July 3, 2019

Last week when Washington visited Miami, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara and Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg opposed each other in one of the games. They will do so again Wednesday night in D.C., with the Nats favored on the MLB Lines.

How to Bet Marlins at Nationals MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Miami?

The Marlins are missing 60 percent of their starting rotation with Jose Urena, Pablo Lopez and Caleb Smith all on the injured list. Two relievers are too. Smith was having a fine season but landed on the injured list since June 7 with a hip problem. Teams still figure to approach the Marlins with interest in him going into the July 31 trade deadline. However, the Marlins don’t seem willing to trade Smith, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign.

Although the Marlins rank second to last in the majors in runs, they may have found a gem in Gerrit Cooper. The 28-year-old has easily been their best hitter, in fact. He’s off to a .317/.383/.488 start (134 wRC+) with seven home runs in his first extensive major league experience. Whether Cooper can keep it up is the question. Cooper’s .388 batting average on balls in play is nowhere near sustainable, nor will 35 percent of his fly balls keep leaving the yard.

Miguel Rojas has not gone back-to-back games without a hit since May 18-19, is batting .338 with 13 doubles and 11 RBI in 37 games since then (beginning May 21). Since that date, he ranks second among National League shortstops in batting average, behind only Trevor Story (.339). He is tied with Chris Taylor for the lead in doubles in that time and is second in OBP (.401), behind Story (.408).

Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (4-7) allowed six runs on seven hits and one walk across six innings while taking the loss Thursday against the Nationals. He struck out one. Alcantara fell victim to the long ball in this one, as all the Nats’ runs came via a pair of solo home runs and a pair of two-run shots. He threw just 90 pitches and could’ve perhaps gone deeper into the game, but he got the hook after finishing a five-run sixth inning. Alcantara had delivered a quality start in back-to-back outings heading into this Thursday’s loss. On the road, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA in seven starts.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 3.63
  • Hits: 8.08
  • Walks: 2.41
  • Strike Outs: 8.89

Defense

  • Runs: 4.60
  • Hits: 8.20
  • Walks: 3.60
  • Strike Outs: 8.57

Why Bet on Washington?

The Nationals have the best record in baseball since May 24th and are playing some of their best baseball under Dave Martinez – he had been very much on the hot seat in late May. Early on in the season, while they were one of the most banged-up teams in the National League, the Nationals were seemingly finding new ways to lose.

First baseman Matt Adams isn’t the team’s best offensive player by any means, but Adams is hitting the ball for power, and the trend of when he is on the field the Nationals win more games from last year has continued. This season in games that Adams starts Washington is 22-13. In games he has appeared in they are 31-27.

Ryan Zimmerman is one RBI shy of reaching the 1,000 RBI mark for his career. When he does so, Zimmerman will join an impressive company. For example, he will become the 289th player in Major League history to reach the 1,000 RBI mark and 43rd player in Major League history to record 1,000 RBI with a single team since RBI became an official statistic in 1920.

Marlins vs Nationals MLB Odds & Game Analysis.

Zimmerman also would become the 10th active player with at least 1,000 RBI, joining: Albert Pujols (2,025), Miguel Cabrera (1,666), Robinson Cano (1,250), Edwin Encarnacion (1,210), Ryan Braun (1,093), Nelson Cruz (1,050), Nick Markakis (1,1016), Matt Kemp (1,010) and Brian McCann (1,003).

Stephen Strasburg (9-4) allowed four runs on seven hits with no walks across seven innings to earn the win Thursday against the Marlins. He struck out four. Strasburg refrained from walking a batter and only allowed one extra-base hit, but Miami pieced together a three-run inning in the second and added another in the fifth in what could have easily been a better start.

Still, he came away with his fifth win in the last six outings and his control was impressive. Strasburg has a middling 3.88 ERA this season.

The Nationals have won 12 straight games over Miami with Strasburg on the mound. He is 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA during that streak, which dates back to Aug. 30, 2015.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.96
  • Hits: 8.52
  • Walks: 3.24
  • Strike Outs: 8.54

Defense

  • Runs: 4.75
  • Hits: 8.37
  • Walks: 3.13
  • Strike Outs: 9.46

Marlins vs Nationals MLB Betting Trends

  • Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Washington
  • Nationals are 13-3 in Strasburg’s last 16 home starts vs. Marlins
  • Marlins are 0-4 in Alcantara’s last 4 starts vs. Nationals
  • Marlins are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games against an opponent in the National League
  • Nationals are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Washington’s last 18 games played on a Wednesday

Expert Final Score Prediction for Marlins vs Nationals

Miami Marlins 2 – Washington Nationals 4

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