MLB Odds Pick on NY Mets vs Chicago Cubs NLCS Game 1

Posted by Daniel Strum on Wednesday,October 21, 2015 2:53, EST in

Yes online sportsbook fans, the New York Mets are perfectly 3-0 in their National League Championship Series against the Chicago Cubs, and are one game away from sweeping off the series to reach the World Series for the first time in 15 years. And the best part is that they can achieve all that by simply winning their NLCS Game 4 clash against the Cubs in tonight’s MLB betting lines. That, however, is easier said than done, considering the Cubs are known to play some of their best baseball at home, so clashing in Chicago today is bound to offer them a huge motivation to clean up their mistakes for a win. Here is an online betting analysis of this pivotal MLB clash, including free MLB picks for baseball betting enthusiasts.

Closer Look at the  MLB Odds Pick on NY Mets vs Chicago Cubs NLCS Game 1 & TV Info

Series Standing: Mets lead series 3-0
Starting Pitchers: Steven Matz vs. Jason Hammel
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Date/Time: Wednesday, October 21, 2015, 8:07 PM ET
TV: TBS
MLB Lines: Mets (+106), Cubs (-116), OVER/UNDER 9

Mets at Cubs NLCS Game 4 MLB Betting Preview

The Mets have heavily relied on a strong pitching performance from Jacob deGrom in yesterday’s 5-2 win over the Cubs, but the praises cannot go unsaid for hitter Daniel Murphy, who posted his sixth homer this postseason to continue his solid run in the playoffs. Murphy, who has gone 12-for-33 with 6 homers and 9 RBIs in this year’s playoffs, Curtis Granderson (7-for-12 lifetime with two homers off the Cubs’ starter Jason Hammel) and New York’s offense will need to maintain concentration one more time in order to earn a berth for the world series.

Meanwhile, New York’s starting pitcher Steven Matz must also maintain the solid show we’ve seen from the Mets pitching staff.  His 4-0 record and 2.27 ERA in the regular season speaks of a man who his able to take care of business today at Wrigley Field. The fact that he had a 2-0 win-loss record with a solid 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in four road starts during the regular season will particularly be morale-boosting for him, as he makes his first ever start against the Cubs.

Bettors must however not be carried away too much, considering Matz (0-1, 5.40 ERA in this year’s playoffs) allowed three runs in five innings against the Dodgers during Game 4 of the NLDS, a game the Mets lost 3-1. Not to mention, the Cubs swept the Mets 7-0 during the regular season, so a rejuvenated Chicago performance should be able to give them a winning chance.

Still, the Cubbies will certainly need to put a big showing and avoid their lackluster showing so far. For starters, Chicago offense that has only mustered up just five runs against New York’s 13 runs in the series’ first three games, must step up big time. This means that Chicago’s big bats, led by Kyle Schwarber (team-best 375 batting average with seven RBIs and five homers in this year’s postseason games) and Anthony Rizzo (has a remarkable triple-slash line of .300/.406/.556 throughout his career against the Mets) must come out swinging hard.

Hamel, who will be starting for Chicago, must also prepare to give a big game. His 5-4 record with a concerning 5.00 ERA in over five career games in the playoffs (including four starts) doesn’t exactly exuberate confidence for Chicago supporters. Furthermore, the 33-year-old righty was far from his solid in his last start in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Cardinals, as he was quickly yanked out of the field after giving up two earned runs on three hits across three innings. Chicago eventually won that game, but with no thanks to his efforts.

Just about the only relatively positive note to Hammel’s name is that he performed averagely well at home in the regular season, going 3-3 with a 3.99 ERA, a .250 opponents’ batting average and 1.16 WHIP throughout 16 starts at Wrigley Field. If Chicago’s offense can somehow get it cracking, and Hammel (0-0, 6.00 ERA in this postseason) also features better as a starter on the mound, then the Cubbies should have a solid winning chance.

Noteworthy Pitching Statistics

  • The Mets are 3-1 in Matz’ last 4 road starts
  • The Cubs are 5-5 in Hammel’s last 10 overall starts

Key Betting Trends

  • NY Mets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • Chi Cubs is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
  • NY Mets is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games on the road
  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • NY Mets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 road games against Chi Cubs
  • Chi Cubs is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing NY Mets
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of NY Mets’ last 25 road games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 5 road games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi Cubs’ last 9 home games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs’ last 6 overall games against NY Mets

My Betting Predictions

Honestly speaking, my rational thinking is convinced that the Mets will win this game, going by their impressive form and the fact that they’ve been playing better baseball both offensively and defensively in this NLCS. Added to Matz’ seeming superiority over Hammel in pitching, taking the Mets for the win looks like a big home run in the MLB lines, one that I bet many bettors will ride on. All That said, I don’t think that the Cubs, however bad they’ve been playing, will allow themselves to come this far and get swept the New Yorkers. And for that one reason, I’ll go against the public and recommend Chicago for a narrow win here, most probably in a low-scoring game that will keep the total UNDER.

Game MLB Picks: Cubs (-116) for SU and ATS, total stays UNDER 9.