Mets vs Twins MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Mets vs Twins MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on July 17, 2019

The NY Mets need a fill-in starter for Wednesday’s interleague series finale at the Minnesota Twins because Steven Matz was moved up to Tuesday when Zack Wheeler was placed on the injured list. The Twins are favored on the MLB Lines behind Martin Perez.

How to Bet Mets vs Twins MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on NY Mets?

The Twins games will mark the fifth interleague series of the year for New York and their second series against the Twins. The two teams split two meetings at Citi Field on April 9-10. Against the Twins, the Mets have fared well over the years, winning 9 of their last 11. This visit to Minnesota marks only the second time since Target Field opened in 2010 that the Mets will play there. The last time was in 2013 when the Mets swept a three-game set.

As noted above, the Mets put pitcher Zack Wheeler on the injured list Monday with right shoulder fatigue (never a good sign), and that’s a potential killer for the team because Wheeler was expected to be traded by the July 31 deadline and fetch a pretty good return. Maybe he still will be but time is now short for Wheeler to return and pitch 1-2 times to show other teams he’s healthy. The Mets’ asking price on Wheeler before he landed on the IL was very high but it’s surely lower now.

Since the Mets are off on July 22, the earliest Wheeler can pitch is July 23. If he returns and starts on either July 23, 24, or 25, he would be able to make one additional start between then and the trade deadline. The 29-year-old Wheeler is set to be a free agent after the season. There is no structural damage in Wheeler’s shoulder so that’s a bit of good news. To take Wheeler’s spot on the roster, the team called up pitcher Jacob Rhame from Triple-A Syracuse.

So it will be lefty Jason Vargas moving up a day here. Vargas (3-5) took the loss last Friday as the Mets fell 8-4 to the Marlins, coughing up six runs on five hits and a walk over five-plus innings while striking out one. The veteran southpaw got taken deep by Curtis Granderson and Garrett Cooper in the third inning, then put the first two batters he faced in the sixth aboard before getting the hook and watching them come around to score. Vargas will take a 4.23 ERA and 64:31 K:BB through 76.2 innings into Wednesday.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.65
  • Hits: 8.76
  • Walks: 3.21
  • Strike Outs: 8.81
Defense
  • Runs: 5.11
  • Hits: 8.98
  • Walks: 3.31
  • Strike Outs: 9.12

Why Bet on Minnesota?

The Twins were expected to activate outfielder Eddie Rosario for Tuesday’s game. He had a .841 OPS with 20 home runs, 60 RBI, three stolen bases, and 51 runs scored before spraining his ankle. The Twins lead the American League in run differential at +121. They are near the top of the AL in most offensive categories ranking an overall second in team batting to the Boston Red Sox. They lead the league in home runs, RBIs and hits. However, Minnesota is ranked near the lower half of the AL in team defense. They are ranked 10th having committed 58 errors. The Twins have a .983 fielding percentage.

Minnesota’s bullpen has posted a 3.03 ERA (92.0 IP, 31 ER) with a .220 opponent batting average and 92 strikeouts in their last 20 games, dating back to June 18. Since that date, their ERA ranks third-best in baseball, their 92 strikeouts rank fifth and their opponent batting average ranks sixth.

Mets vs Twins is going to be a close one.

The Twins’ most valuable player this year might be reliever Taylor Rogers. His 2.78 win probability added (WPA) leads all Twins pitchers. It’s almost a full win higher than Minnesota’s All-Star starters Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. No position player has a higher total than Rogers. Since Target Field opened in 2010, Glen Perkins (2.79 WPA) has the best WPA of any Twin reliever. Jared Burton (2.41 WPA) and Glen Perkins (1.85 WPA) in 2012 have the other top totals. Doug Corbett’s 1980 season was Minnesota’s all-time best WPA mark from a reliever.

The Twins probably would have liked to have faced Wheeler in this series as they were interested in trading for him. They also reportedly are looking at Toronto’s Marcus Stroman as they try to pull away from Cleveland in the AL Central.

Lefty Martin Perez (8-3) picked up the win in his final start before the All-Star break vs. Texas, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks over six-plus innings while striking three. It looked like the left-hander might be putting together something special against his former club, as Perez shut out Texas through six innings with a manageable pitch count, but he ran into a wall in the seventh. He’ll take a 4.26 ERA and 85:40 K:BB through 95 innings into this outing. Perez allowed three runs in relief to the Mets on April 10.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 5.65
  • Hits: 9.62
  • Walks: 3.04
  • Strike Outs: 8.15
Defense
  • Runs: 4.35
  • Hits: 8.42
  • Walks: 2.84
  • Strike Outs: 8.73

Mets vs Twins MLB Betting Trends

  • Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter
  • Twins are 4-1 in Perez’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record
  • Over is 4-0 in Perez’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record
  • Mets are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Minnesota
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets’ last 7 games
  • Twins are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the National League
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games when playing at home against NY Mets

Expert Final Score Prediction for Mets vs Twins

New York Mets 4 – Minnesota Twins 7

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