How to Bet Nationals vs Phillies MLB Spread & Expert Pick

Written by on April 9, 2019

The marquee pitching matchup of Tuesday in baseball is from Philadelphia as the Phillies trot out ace Aaron Nola against Nationals No. 2 starter Stephen Strasburg – he’d be a No. 1 on most teams, but Washington has Max Scherzer. The Phillies are MLB betting favorites.

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Why Bet on Washington?

Anthony Rendon slugged a three-run homer to propel the Nationals to a 12-9 win over the Mets on Sunday. Rendon swatted a three-run blast — his fourth round-tripper of the season — off Mets reliever Luis Avilan to put Washington ahead 12-1 in the seventh inning. He also walked twice and scored three runs in the contest. The 28-year-old slugger has gotten off to a blistering start, hitting .433/.528/.967 with 12 runs scored, four homers and nine RBI in 36 plate appearances entering Monday.

With 995 in hand, Ryan Zimmerman is six RBI shy of reaching the 1000 RBI mark for his career. When he does so, he will become the first Washington National to record his 1000th RBI in a Nationals uniform.

Washington’s Stephen Strasburg takes the bump. Strasburg (1-0) posted 6.2 shutout innings, allowing only three hits and one walk while striking out nine in a win against the Mets on Thursday. The 30-year-old took a no-hitter into the fifth inning. Noah Syndergaard actually bested Strasburg in that department, lasting until the sixth inning before giving up a hit, but the Nationals’ lineup did eventually get to Syndergaard while the Mets never really cracked Strasburg.

The Nationals’ right-hander left with two runners aboard and two outs in the seventh, and reliever Matt Grace cleaned up the frame with a strikeout. Strasburg is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 17 strikeouts in 12.2 innings this season. Strasburg has allowed eight hits or fewer in his past 53 starts dating to Sept. 7, 2016, the longest streak in franchise history and tied for the third-longest active streak in the majors.

Washington’s starting pitching staff ranks among National League staffs in strikeouts per 9.0 IP (2nd, 11.76), strikeouts (3rd) and opponents’ OPS (5th, .673).

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 5.44
  • Hits: 7.89
  • Walks: 3.89
  • Strike Outs: 10.44
Defense
  • Runs: 5.89
  • Hits: 10.11
  • Walks: 3.22
  • Strike Outs: 10.33

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Hector Neris picked up his first save of the season via a scoreless ninth inning with two strikeouts in Sunday’s win over the Twins. This was Neris’ first shot at picking up a save this year and he came through without issue. He required 17 pitches (12 strikes) to finish the job.

Neris allowed two runs in his first relief appearance of the season, but has kept not allowed a run over his next four trips to the mound. While he figures to see chances here and there as the season progresses, Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson are the two arms most likely to receive save opportunities for the Phillies.

“We start our game plan with, ‘We can get strikeouts with Hector.’ So if the game is very, very close, we have a lot of confidence that he can come in and get swings and misses,” Manager Gabe Kapler said of Neris. Dating to late last season, Neris has struck out 47 of the last 105 batters he’s faced. He has struck out at least one hitter in 28 of his last 29 appearances. At age 29, he could be circling back to the closer’s role he commanded in 2017 when he had 26 saves.

Nationals vs Phillies is going to be a close one.

The 6-2 start entering Monday is the franchise’s best since 2011, which was also the most recent time the Phillies won the NL East. Even before Bryce Harper signed — and he has gotten off to the kind of start (1.402 OPS) the Phillies dreamed of — the team had undergone one of the most dramatic offensive makeovers in recent seasons, making serious upgrades at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), shortstop (Jean Segura) and the outfield (Andrew McCutchen). The results have been dramatic, from 21st in runs per game (4.2) last season to fourth (6.6) entering play Monday, and from 22nd in OPS (.707) to sixth (.847).

Aaron Nola gave up six runs on five hits and two walks across only three innings during Wednesday’s 9-8 loss against the Nationals. He struck out two and did not factor in the decision. Nola’s troubles began early on as he allowed a double and two home runs during the first inning and saw little improvement over his following two frames, leading to the early exit. Nola has not been sharp in his first two starts, allowing seven runs in nine innings, walking seven and striking out 10.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 6.33
  • Hits: 8.44
  • Walks: 5.44
  • Strike Outs: 8.11
Defense
  • Runs: 4.00
  • Hits: 8.00
  • Walks: 3.33
  • Strike Outs: 7.89

Nationals vs Phillies MLB Betting Trends

  • Under is 6-0 in Strasburg’s last 6 road starts vs. Phillies
  • Under is 7-2 in Nola’s last 9 starts vs. Nationals
  • Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Nationals vs Phillies

Washington Nationals 3 – Philadelphia Phillies 4

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