No question one of the marquee series of the weekend is a matchup with potentially huge Wild-Card implications as the Washington Nationals visit the red-hot New York Mets. A terrific pitching matchup in the opener, with Washington likely a slight MLB Betting favorite.
How to Bet Nationals at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info
- When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Citi Field
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Stephen Strasburg/Marcus Stroman
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- MLB Lines: Washington Nationals -120 (Total 8)
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Weather Forecast
- Partly Cloudy: 27°C/81°F
- Humidity: 43%
- Precipitation: 8%
- Cloud Cover: 37%
- Wind: 8 mph W
- Stadium Type: Open
Why Bet on Washington?
The Nats essentially ended the Wild-Card hopes of the Giants early this week, sweeping three low-scoring games in San Francisco. One piece of bad news Wednesday, though, as All-Star third baseman Anthony Rendon was removed with a sore toe. Rendon picked up the toe injury when he was hit in the foot by a pitch early in the contest against the Giants. If Rendon is out a while, that’s a huge blow as he’s hitting .314 with 24 homers and 87 RBIs.
Rendon ranks fourth in the National League (1st among NL third basemen) in Wins Above Replacement (4.6). His 1.002 OPS, .601 slugging percentage and .401 on-base percentage lead all Major League third basemen. Rendon is the third player in franchise history with four straight seasons of 20 homers and 80 RBIs.
It’s Stephen Strasburg for Washington. Strasburg (14-5) took the loss Saturday, surrendering nine runs on nine hits — including three home runs — and two walks over 4.2 innings while striking out seven as the Nationals were routed 18-7 by the Diamondbacks. It was only the third time this season that Strasburg has given up three home runs. He yielded a season-high four in a loss to the D-backs on June 15.
The right-hander hadn’t allowed any homers at all in his prior six starts, and he’s only been taken deep multiple times in one other outing since mid-April — a June 15 start in which the D-backs hammered him for those four long balls. All told, Arizona has accounted for nearly half of the home runs Strasburg has served up this season, and he has a 2.99 ERA against the rest of baseball (and a 13.96 mark versus Arizona).
On Saturday, the D-backs put eight balls into play with an exit velocity of more than 100 mph against the right-hander, per Statcast, including five hits and all three of the homers Strasburg allowed. Strasburg has allowed six or more runs only three times this season, two of which have come against Arizona. The only other time Strasburg allowed nine runs in a start was Aug. 17, 2016, against the Rockies. After watching a video, Strasburg found something that he believes was causing the D-backs to jump on his pitches.
Team Stats
Offense- Runs: 4.99
- Hits: 8.65
- Walks: 3.52
- Strike Outs: 8.21
- Runs: 4.61
- Hits: 8.42
- Walks: 3.17
- Strike Outs: 9.37
Why Bet on NY Mets?
The Mets are unstoppable right now. They finished a four-game sweep of the Marlins on Wednesday and have won 13 of 14 to get into the Wild-Card chase. Likely NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso swatted a two-run homer, his 37th of the season, in Wednesday’s win. Alonso, who won the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game, has followed up a career-long nine-game homerless drought by going deep in three straight contests.
It’s Marcus Stroman for the Mets. Of course, he was surprisingly acquired from the Blue Jays before the Trade Deadline. Stroman allowed three runs on seven hits with two walks and three strikeouts across 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Saturday. The 28-year-old didn’t finish with a terrible line in his Mets debut, but it could have easily been a lot worse. Stroman left in the middle of the fifth, and only one of his two inherited runners scored. Furthermore, the Mets rallied to take away the Pirates’ lead, getting Stroman off the hook.
Stroman is 6-11 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts in 129 innings with the Blue Jays and Mets this season. Stroman’s Mets debut was not representative of the ground-ball machine he’s been over six seasons with the Blue Jays. He made a for-the-ages fielding play, grabbing a slow roller far to his right with his bare hand, hit by Kevin Newman, and made an off-balance, shortstop-like throw home for the force out in the first inning, keeping what was a two-run inning in check.
“As I started to settle in, all my pitches started to do what I wanted them to do more. I knew it was a little bit of a layoff. I know that once I get back to my bullpen and kind of focus on a few things, I’ll be much crisper next time out,” he said.
The Long Island native should have plenty of friends and family in attendance when he makes his home debut at Citi Field.
Team Stats
Offense- Runs: 4.80
- Hits: 8.80
- Walks: 3.22
- Strike Outs: 8.81
- Runs: 4.73
- Hits: 8.75
- Walks: 3.26
- Strike Outs: 9.22
Nationals vs Mets MLB Betting Trends
- Nationals are 8-1 in Strasburg’s last 9 road starts vs. Mets
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York
- Nationals are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against NY Mets
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington’s last 16 games on the road
- Mets are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Mets’ last 10 games when playing as the underdog
Expert Final Score Prediction for Nationals vs Mets
Score: Washington Nationals 4 – New York Mets 3
