NY Mets at LA Dodgers NLDS Game 1 MLB Betting Report

Posted by Daniel Strum on October 9, 2015 in

This is going to be a really tough one to call. Los Angeles stud pitcher Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA) will get the ball this Friday when the Dodgers host Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA) and the New York Mets at the Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the National League Divisional Playoffs. Given the rivalry between fans from the two teams, along with the quality of both starters, this clash promises nothing but fireworks in the MLB Odds. Read on as we give a guide on how to place your wager on the matchup.

An In Depth Preview of the NY Mets at LA Dodgers NLDS Game 1 MLB Betting Report

Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California
Date: Friday, October 9, 2015
Time: 9:45 PM ET

Mets (90-72) vs. Dodgers (92-60) NLDS Game 1 Preview

In his last game, NL CY Young contender Kershaw pitched 3.2 innings, giving up zero runs and striking out seven in a 6-3 win over the San Diego Padres. deGrom, meanwhile, pitched 4.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs, striking out seven and walking two in a 1-0 win over the Washington Nationals. After such performances, and with their more-or-less comparable statistics, there’ll probably be very few differences from the two starters this Friday. The onus will thus be on the offensive units and bullpens to come up big to offer support to the starting pitchers.

Starting with the bullpens, the Mets have a slight upper hand, as Jeurys Familia has been astounding as a closer. However, it remains to be seen if the young closer will be able to continue his tremendous run into the October games that come with extra pressure. Conversely, the Dodgers will be hoping that closer Kenley Jansen is able to improve on his performance. Jansen is an above-average player, but to ensure that his team gets a winning chance, he must refine his game and give his best of performances. This will be especially important this Friday since Kershaw has been perennially shaky in the postseason.

Offensively, Justin Turner (.294, 55 Rs, 60 RBIs, 16 HRs, 5 SBs) had a great game on Sunday, going 2 for 3 with one run, one home run, and one RBI for the Dodgers in the 6-3 win over the Padres. The Dodgers will be looking up to him to lead the offense once again this Friday.

On the opposite end, hard-hitting trade-deadline acquisition Yoenis Cespedes (.291, 101 Rs, 105 RBIs, 35 HRs, 7 SBs) continued his splendid run this season, going 1 for 3 to help in the victory over Washington. You can expect Cespedes to be well-motivated for a big performance this Friday, considering his reputation as a monster gamer in the postseason. Needless to say, Kershaw recorded a whopping 301 strikeouts this season, so Cespedes and the Mets offense will have their work cut out for them.

Noteworthy Game Statistics

  • The Dodgers are the third-best team in the NL in limiting walks and walks, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season
  • The Mets are one of the best teams in the league in preventing batters from getting on base, recording a WHIP of 1.18 for the season
  • As they prepare to face right-hander deGrom, the Dodgers have a 70-53 record against right-handed starters on the year
  • Kershaw (LHP) will be hoping to do well against the Mets, who have an 18-16 record against left-handed starters
  • The Mets have a 19-58 record when opponents outhit them, while the Dodgers are 15-51 when outhit by opponents
  • Both teams rank in top 10 of the league in total home runs this season, with the Dodgers ranking sixth with 187 homers and the Mets placed eighth with 177

Key Betting Trends

  • The Mets went 4-3 in the regular season series against the Dodgers, including a 3-2  run in the last five meetings
  • The Dodgers have an impressive record of 82-60 in their last 142 games as betting favorites
  • The Mets are unimpressively 18-38 in their last 50 games as betting underdogs

Final Remarks and Betting Prediction

Considering Kershaw’s career numbers of ERA (2.43) and WHIP (1.033) are the best of any active pitcher, it would be plain silly to try to convince you that he isn’t a good player, or that he can’t have a good game. But then, with the ERA ballooning to 5.12 and  the WHIP going to 1.235 in the playoffs, I am not sure if trusting Kershaw is the right decision. Not to mention, Kershaw has been error-full in his last four starts, something that has doomed him to lose the decisions in all those four games. Meanwhile, deGrom has done better over the same timeline.

Even more notably, the Mets have won a game started by Kershaw this season, and that was before Cespedes arrived in New York and bettered the offense, helping them rise from averaging around three runs per game to six runs per game. It is because of that improvement that New York finished the regular season ranked 12th with 8.35 hits per game, compared to Los Angeles’ average of 8.29, good for a 13th ranking. It would therefore not be  a surprise if the Dodgers get outhit by Cespedes and Co. When you add up all the above facts, it goes without saying that the Mets are a good value to claim the victory in this contest. In the total lines; an UNDER looks probable, as both pitchers will most likely play tough in an enthralling showdown.