Orioles vs Rays MLB Week 14 Betting Odds & Prediction.

Orioles vs Rays MLB Week 14 Betting Odds & Prediction

Written by on July 3, 2019

Young Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos started this season as a reliever but has transitioned into one of the team’s best starting pitchers. He takes the mound on Wednesday (we think) against the terrible Baltimore Orioles. The Rays should be home favorites on the MLB Odds.

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Why Bet on Baltimore?

One bright spot this year in the lineup has been infielder Renato Nunez. With a 104 wRC+ in his second year of extended big-league work, Nunez has been slightly better than the average hitter in 2019. His 18 home runs are tied for seventh-most in the American League while his .246 ISO is 12th-best. In 91 more plate appearances from last year to this year, the Venezuelan has 11 more home runs due to his 10.5 HR/FB ratio nearly doubling to 19.1.

The Orioles have outscored their opponents 60-48 in the first inning this season. The O’s are hitting .280/.351/.533 in 83 games during the first frame. Their .884 first-inning OPS leads the AL and ranks second in the majors.

The Orioles’ pitching staff has been largely terrible this season. Opposing batters have a .269 batting average against and the group has a team ERA of 5.82. Both are worst in the majors. Relievers have combined to have an ERA of 6.23. One factor that likely has contributed to the woes of the bullpen is the inexperience of the pitchers. Seven of their relievers this season have been rookies.

Baltimore’s John Means (7-4) tossed five scoreless innings Friday against the Indians, giving up one hit and one walk while striking out five. He picked up the win. It was his first start off the injured list after not having pitched since June 16, so that’s why he was not allowed to go deeper into the outing while sitting at 84 pitches (53 strikes). Means’ 2.50 ERA would rank third among American League starters if he qualified with innings pitched. His 3.94 FIP illustrates the fact that he may be pitching a little over his head, but he has nonetheless been extremely effective through 75.2 innings.

Means has been named to the AL All-Star team. He has induced 61 swings and misses on his changeup this season, ranking ninth in the majors among left-handers on changeups. Means is the fifth rookie in Orioles history (since 1954), and first since 1966, to be named to the All-Star team. He joins RHP Chuck Estrada (1960), 1B Jim Gentile (1960), INF Ron Hansen (1960), and C Andy Etchebarren (1966) as O’s rookie All-Stars.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.15
  • Hits: 8.21
  • Walks: 2.69
  • Strike Outs: 9.09
Defense
  • Runs: 6.19
  • Hits: 9.48
  • Walks: 3.68
  • Strike Outs: 7.67

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

Jose Alvarado pitched a scoreless ninth against the Orioles on Monday for his first save since coming off the restricted list. It was Alvarado’s second appearance back after four weeks off to tend to a family health situation. The save was his seventh in 28 appearances for the year, and he lowered his ERA to 3.20.

Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters on Monday that the hope is that reliever Diego Castillo (shoulder) will be activated from the injured list on Friday. Castillo has been dealing with a shoulder impingement and has been on the shelf since June 23 because of it.

The Rays rank 9th in the AL in runs per game (4.56), 8th in batting avg. (.253), 7th in on-base pct. (.325) and 9th in slugging pct. (.424). The Rays are 35-5 (.872) this season when scoring 5+ runs. They are 24-6 when scoring in the 1st inning and 37-10 when scoring first.

Orioles vs Rays should be a close victory for Tampa Bay.

It’s expected to be Yonny Chirinos on the mound, but you never know with the Rays. Chirinos (7-4) took the loss in Friday’s 5-0 defeat at the hands of the Rangers, allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits and four walks over six innings while striking out five. While it was technically a quality start, it wasn’t a sharp one. The error that led to the unearned run was Chirinos’ own, and he threw only 59 of 105 pitches for strikes en route to a season-high four free passes — he hadn’t walked more than two batters in any prior outing. The right-hander will carry a 3.10 ERA and 76:21 K:BB through 93 innings into this one.

The Rays have allowed 76 HR this season, fewest in the majors by a wide margin—this is 14 fewer than any other team (Reds) and 19 fewer than any other AL team (Athletics). The club record for fewest homers allowed before the All-Star break is 84 HR in 2008 and 2011. The Rays have hit 15 HR in the 1st inning, tying their total from last season which was 2nd-fewest in the majors (Marlins, 10).

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.59
  • Hits: 8.79
  • Walks: 3.28
  • Strike Outs: 9.47
Defense
  • Runs: 3.56
  • Hits: 7.47
  • Walks: 2.92
  • Strike Outs: 9.52

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Orioles vs Rays MLB Betting Trends

  • Orioles are 0-4 in Means’ last 4 starts with 4 days of rest
  • Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400
  • Orioles are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Baltimore’s last 13 games this season
  • Rays are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games played in July

Expert Final Score Prediction for Orioles vs Rays

Baltimore Orioles 3 – Tampa Bay Rays 4

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