How to Bet Padres vs Braves MLB Spread & Expert Prediction

How to Bet Padres vs Braves MLB Spread & Expert Prediction

Written by on May 1, 2019

The San Diego Padres have been a pleasant surprise this season, but they are likely to once again be without rookie sensation Fernando Tatis Jr. on Wednesday for the third game of their four-game set in Atlanta. The Braves are favored on the latest MLB odds.

Padres vs Braves MLB Spread & Expert Prediction

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Why Bet on San Diego?

On Sunday, Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, left against the Nationals after he did an awkward-looking split while trying to stretch for a throw at second base.

With no outs and a runner on first in the 10th, the Nationals’ Victor Robles bunted back toward the mound. Padres pitcher Matt Wisler grabbed the ball and fired to second in an attempt to get the force out on Wilmer Difo. Tatis stretched for the ball and wound up doing the splits, with his back foot sliding off the base as he brought the ball in. Tatis crumpled to the ground and lay flat on his stomach for a couple of minutes. The team is hoping that Tatis Jr. avoids the injured list. The 20-year-old entered the season as one of the top prospects in baseball. He is hitting .300 with six homers and 13 RBIs for the Padres.

The Padres have 7 wins this year that have been decided by 1 run. The ties with the Dodgers for the most of any NL club and Seattle is the only other team to have more 1-run wins (8).

It’s top prospect Cal Quantrill here in his MLB debut. Quantrill, whose father, Paul, pitched in the majors from 1992-2005, will be the fourth starting pitcher to debut for the Padres this season. That’s twice as many as any other team. He will also be the third rookie in a row to start for them, following Nick Margevicius on Monday and Paddack on Tuesday. After one shaky start in Triple-A, Quantrill has posted a 2.86 ERA in 22 innings over his past four starts. He was the team’s 2016 first-round pick, going No. 8 overall despite coming off Tommy John surgery.

His presence gives the Padres a temporary six-man rotation, as they continue to monitor the workloads of a handful of their young starting pitchers. Earlier this season, Pedro Avila was promoted for the same purpose, and he was optioned after just one start.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 3.57
  • Hits: 7.10
  • Walks: 2.57
  • Strike Outs: 9.53

Defense

  • Runs: 3.87
  • Hits: 7.53
  • Walks: 2.77
  • Strike Outs: 9.13

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Entering Tuesday, the Braves have won 11 of their last 12 home games against San Diego, dating to August 30, 2016, and 16 of the last 19 in Atlanta.

Outfielder Ender Inciarte was removed from Monday’s game versus the Padres because of right hamstring tightness. Inciarte pulled up lame after singling in the third inning. The Braves are saying his hamstring came through tests well, but they’ll wait to see how he feels before making a decision on a possible injured list stint. Johan Camargo replaced Inciarte, who has won three straight Gold Gloves in center field. Ronald Acuna Jr. moved from left field to center following Inciarte’s injury. Camargo played left.

Padres vs Braves is scheduled for Wednesday Night.

On Monday, the Braves put RHP Chad Sobotka on the 10-day injured list with a left abdominal strain. Sobotka suffered the injury during Sunday’s appearance against the Rockies. It’s unclear how much time he might miss, but it’s a blow to the Braves’ bullpen.

Atlanta has gotten great production from its catchers. They rank sixth in MLB with a 110 wRC+, fourth in on-base percentage at .367, and fifth in wOBA at .348. Tyler Flowers boasts the third highest wRC+ (157) of any catcher with at least 50 plate appearances and ranks third among catchers in fWAR, behind only J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal.

Braves lefty Max Fried (3-1) is on the mound. Fried took the loss after surrendering four runs on seven hits while striking out eight over 5.1 innings Friday night against the Rockies. Fried gave up a pair of solo blasts in the fourth inning and surrendered another two runs in the sixth. Although it certainly wasn’t a terrible outing by any means, Friday’s performance was his worst outing of the season, and it raised his ERA from 1.38 to 2.30. If he continues to make strides with his slider, he should see his strikeout rate climb.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 5.10
  • Hits: 9.00
  • Walks: 4.34
  • Strike Outs: 8.66

Defense

  • Runs: 4.97
  • Hits: 8.17
  • Walks: 4.41
  • Strike Outs: 9.00

Padres vs Braves MLB Betting Trends

  • Padres are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter
  • Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter
  • Padres are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 6 games played in May
  • Braves are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games against San Diego

Expert Final Score Prediction for Padres vs Braves

San Diego Padres 1 – Atlanta Braves 3

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