The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves battle it out at SunTrust Park in Smyrna, GA on Thursday afternoon. Atlanta is the favorite on the moneyline. Will the Braves reward their backers? Check out MLB betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Padres vs Braves!
Padres vs Braves Week 5 Odds, Preview, and Pick
- When: Thursday, May 2 at 12:10pm ET
- Where: SunTrust Park, Smyrna, GA
- TV: ESPN+
- Radio: Padres / Braves
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Moneyline Odds: Braves -130
- Over/Under Total Odds: 8 ½
Why San Diego Padres are a good bet at +110?
Padres starter Matt Strahm has played his best in his last couple of starts. On April 19, Strahm threw 8 innings and gave up only a single run off 2 hits versus the Cincinnati Reds. Then in his last start on April 26, Strahm allowed 2 earned runs off 4 hits in 6 innings.
Strahm has faced Atlanta batters only 19 times. He has held the Braves to a .105 batting average, though. Because he’s been hot in his last couple of starts, he could lead the Padres charge to an upset victory.
- Runs/G: 3.57
- BA: .220
- OPS: .682
- HR: 43
- SB: 13
- ERA: 3.53
- WHIP: 1.15
- KS: 276
- Quality Starts: 7
- Errors: 18
Why Atlanta Braves are a good bet at -130?
The Braves counter Strahm with Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz didn’t fair that well in his first start this season. He threw 6 innings and gave up 4 earned runs off 4 hits. That’s what happens when you get dinged for 2 home runs.
Foltynewicz should improve off that performance, though. He’s a much better pitcher than that. If he can give the Braves a solid 5 to 6 innings without giving up more than 2 runs, he’ll put Atlanta into a good position to win on May 2.
- Runs/G: 5.10
- BA: .266
- OPS: .808
- HR: 40
- SB: 11
- ERA: 4.68
- WHIP: 1.43
- KS: 261
- Quality Starts: 11
- Errors: 12
MLB Betting Trends for Padres vs Braves
- Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games
- Padres are 2-5 in Strahm’s last 7 starts
- Padres are 1-4 in Strahm’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 4 during game 5 of a series
- Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 Thursday games
- Braves are 3-8 in Foltynewiczs’ last last 11 starts
Padres vs Braves Final MLB Betting Analysis
Both teams show positive and negative trends. The real key in this battle is how Atlanta hits against Matt Strahm. They’ve only faced Strahm 19 times and because of that, San Diego’s starting pitcher should have a slight edge over Atlanta batters.
On the flip side, Mike Foltynewicz didn’t look comfortable in his first start of the season. It could take him another game or two before he gets into a groove. Not only that, but in a small sample, 29 at-bats, the Padres hit .379 against him. San Diego looks like a solid play.
MLB Betting Pick: Padres +110