Even with a whole bunch of games still to come in the MLB regular season, we are at the point where it’s probably a decent time to start talking about the Wild Card. You may assume that it’s too early, but you can bet that there are already some teams looking at the Wild Card given the current standings in some of the divisions. While there is still plenty of time to close a double-digit deficit in a divisional race, the odds against it happening get worse with each passing day.
One of the divisions that already looks to be spinning out of control is the NL West, where the LA Dodgers have built up a 10-game lead and are showing zero sign of slowing down or hitting a slump. What that means is that the chasing pack are all looking at the current Wild Card standings, as the deficit there is much more manageable. The San Diego Padres are definitely in that picture and will be looking to take advantage of a struggling San Francisco Giants team on Tuesday night. The Padres are favored by 1 ½, with the run total set at 8.
Padres vs Giants MLB Week 11 Odds & Game Analysis
- When: Tuesday, June 11 at 9:45 PM EST
- Where: AT&T Park, San Francisco
- Starting Pitchers: Paddack vs. Beede
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: KNBR
- MLB Week 11 Odds: San Diego Padres -180 (Total 8)
Why bet on the San Diego Padres?
We have already established that the LA Dodgers are pulling away in the NL West, but behind them, there is a bit of a log jam beginning to develop, with the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres all separated by just a game and a half. What that means is that they are all very much in the Wild Card picture, with the Padres sitting just 4 games out of the final WC spot despite being down in 4th in the NL West.
Overall, the Padres are sitting with a 33-33 record, but they are on a bit of a skid that has seen them go just 4-6 in their last 10 games. The good news is that the Padres have been better on the road than at home, going 15-13 SU, although just 3-3 ATS as a road favorite. It will be Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) who starts for the Padres.
- Runs: 4.00
- Hits: 7.58
- Walks: 2.70
- Strike Outs: 9.70
- Runs: 4.47
- Hits: 8.18
- Walks: 2.41
- Strike Outs: 8.76
Why bet on the San Francisco Giants?
The San Francisco Giants are the only team in the NL West who is probably too far off the pace to turn things around. Even in the Wild Card race, there are simply too many teams ahead of them at this point, which you would expect when a team is sitting at 26-38 on the season.
They are coming into this one having dropped back to back games, which has them at 5-5 in the last 10 games. Home field has not been much of an advantage for the Giants this season, as they are just 11-20 in their own ballpark. They have also not been a very good bet as a home dog, going 10-15 ATS in those games. It will be Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15 ERA) who gets the start here.
- Runs: 3.75
- Hits: 7.42
- Walks: 2.97
- Strike Outs: 8.75
- Runs: 5.09
- Hits: 8.66
- Walks: 3.27
- Strike Outs: 8.48
Padres vs Giants MLB Betting Trends
- Padres are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego’s last 9 games against an opponent in the National League
- Giants are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Francisco’s last 15 games played in June
- Giants are 22-14 against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons
- Beede is 0-1 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 12.26 and a WHIP of 2.452.
- Paddack is 0-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.600
- Padres are 50-59 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
This is a real opportunity for the Padres to get their season back on track. I especially like them in this game, as it certainly appears as though they have the best of this pitching duel.
Score: San Diego Padres 5 – San Francisco Giants 1