Padres vs Phillies MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Padres vs Phillies MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on August 16, 2019

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies were the big offseason winners by signing Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, respectively. The two meet up in the City of Brotherly Love on Friday with the Phils as slight MLB Betting underdogs.

How to Bet Padres vs Phillies MLB Odds & Game Info

Weather Forecast

  • Scattered Thunderstorms: 26°C/79°F
  • Humidity: 74%
  • Precipitation: 44%
  • Cloud Cover: 64%
  • Wind: 6 mph SE
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why Bet on San Diego?

Superstar rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected to be placed on the injured list. The club had been hopeful that he would be able to return to the lineup after a couple of days of rest on his sore back, but that no longer appears to be the case. The star rookie shortstop did not travel with the team to Philadelphia to undergo further tests on his back in San Diego.

At 20, Tatis has already established himself as one of the game’s most exciting young players. He owns a stellar .317/.379/.590 batting line with 22 home runs, 53 RBI, 16 stolen bases, and 61 runs scored through 84 games this season. Tatis leads the club in average, on-base percentage, slugging and Wins Above Replacement. Luis Urias will continue to fill in at shortstop in his absence. Urias is 10-for-32 with nine RBI and six walks in 11 games this month.

In the month of August, the Padres have hit .299 with runners in scoring position, the 3rd-best clip in such situations of all National League teams, behind the Dodgers’ .380 and the Mets’ .300.

Rookie Chris Paddack (7-5) did not factor into the decision against Colorado on Saturday, pitching six innings and giving up three runs on five hits and one walk while striking out five. Paddack was unable to contain All-Star Nolan Arenado, who drove in a pair of runs with a solo homer and a single, but was otherwise in control, allowing only six total baserunners. The quality start was a nice turnaround for the rookie right-hander after he gave up six runs in four innings against the Dodgers in his previous outing. Paddack now sports a 3.26 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 20 starts.

Paddack is coming off a quality start against the Rockies, but he hasn’t harnessed his devastating changeup lately. In two August starts, he’s getting whiffs on only 9.5 percent of his changeups, down from his 27.7 percent whiff rate for the season.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.54
  • Hits: 8.27
  • Walks: 3.03
  • Strike Outs: 9.74
Defense
  • Runs: 4.85
  • Hits: 8.72
  • Walks: 2.76
  • Strike Outs: 8.84

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

In a bit of a surprise earlier this week, the Phillies relieved hitting coach John Mallee of his duties. Former Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was named the replacement. Manuel, who had been working as senior advisor to the general manager, will assume the position for the remainder of the 2019 season.

Is Bryce Harper breaking out of a slump? Harper went 3-for-3 and homered twice to help propel his club to an 11-1 shellacking of the Cubs on Wednesday. He will likely fall short of his career averages in most categories but could set a new high in RBI. He drove in 100 runs last year to set his personal mark in that stat. The Phillies are 53-16 this season when they score at least four runs in a game and their winning percentage when doing so is 2nd-best in the National League.

Padres vs Phillies should be a close one

The Phillies have placed pitcher Jake Arrieta on the 10-day injured list with a right elbow injury. No decision has been made yet as to Arrieta’s status for the remainder of 2019, but it seems likely that he will soon undergo season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow. The veteran starter has been bothered by discomfort throughout the second half and was sporting a 5.73 ERA over his last 44 innings. Zach Eflin will fill the vacant spot in the Phillies’ rotation.

Philly’s Vince Velasquez (4-7) took the loss Saturday against the Giants after giving up three runs on three hits over five innings. He struck out three and walked one. Velasquez gave up a two-run homer and a solo homer but otherwise pitched well, though the Phillies generated minimal offense to saddle him with the loss. The right-hander has a 2.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 21:8 K:BB over 22.2 innings in his last four starts.

Velasquez opened the season in the rotation before moving to the bullpen. He returned in June and is 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA in nine starts since then. He has pitched more than 5 2/3 innings just once in that stretch.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.77
  • Hits: 8.43
  • Walks: 3.63
  • Strike Outs: 8.78
Defense
  • Runs: 4.94
  • Hits: 9.03
  • Walks: 3.38
  • Strike Outs: 8.53

Padres vs Phillies MLB Betting Trends

  • Padres are 9-4 in Paddack’s last 13 starts with 5 days of rest
  • Phillies are 2-5 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record
  • Padres are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played on a Friday
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of San Diego’s last 19 games on the road
  • Phillies are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games against an opponent in the National League

Expert Final Score Prediction for Padres vs Phillies

San Diego Padres 4 – Philadelphia Phillies 3

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