Padres vs Reds MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Padres vs Reds MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on August 21, 2019

Arguably, the most intriguing pitching matchup on Wednesday is also the first game of the day as young excellent right-handers Chris Paddack and Luis Castillo square off from Cincinnati. The Reds are favored on the MLB Odds.

How to Bet Padres vs Reds MLB Odds & Game Info

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 27°C/81°F
  • Humidity: 66%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 53%
  • Wind: 8 mph W
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why Bet on San Diego?

San Diego will likely be without electric rookie shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. for the rest of the season. Tatis suffered a stress reaction in his lower back last week. He had been pushing Pete Alonso for National League Rookie of the Year honors but will now finish the season with just 84 games played due to hamstring and now back injuries. Tatis has hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 homers and 16 steals and won’t turn 21 until January.

The Padres offense have seen the fewest plate appearances with RISP than any team in baseball this season, and they rank 9th in the NL in average with RISP (.263). However, they rank 3rd in the NL in average with RISP/2 outs (.256).

It’s rookie Chris Paddack on the mound for the Friars. Paddack (7-6) took the loss Friday after surrendering five runs (four earned) on nine hits and a walk while striking out six over 4.2 innings against the Phillies. Paddack was tagged for one run in the second inning, two in the third and two more in the fifth before being lifted from the ballgame. His team failed to provide him with any run support while he was in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander didn’t appear to have his best stuff Friday night, but he still owns a 3.44 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 121 punchouts over 115 innings.

Paddack has had a tough time over three August starts, but the former top prospect has nonetheless lived up to his pre-MLB billing this year. The rookie has registered a 4.21 FIP with 9.47 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 in his first 115 major league innings. If you’re a fan of WHIP, Paddack’s minuscule 0.98 mark ties him with Astros stars Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke for fourth among those who have tossed 100-plus innings in 2019.

Closer Kirby Yates is the 1st Padre to collect 36 saves in a season since Craig Kimbrel had 39 saves in 2015. Since the All-Star break, he’s posted a 1.50 ERA in 12.0 IP, converting 6 of his 8 SVO with 22 SO against zero BB. Yates has not issued a BB in his last 17 games since June 28.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.52
  • Hits: 8.27
  • Walks: 3.00
  • Strike Outs: 9.69
Defense
  • Runs: 4.81
  • Hits: 8.68
  • Walks: 2.73
  • Strike Outs: 8.88

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds lost star first baseman Joey Votto to the 10-day injured list over the weekend with a lower back strain. It’s unclear at this point how much time he might miss. Josh VanMeter has been filling in for him at first base and would figure to continue seeing the bulk of the starts at the position, although Brian O’Grady should also see some playing time. O’Grady was called up to take Votto’s roster spot.

In the first inning, the Redlegs lead the Major Leagues in runs scored, HR, RBI and slugging percentage (.593) while ranking second in the majors in batting average (.307) and third in on-base percentage (.366). The Reds have outscored opponents in the first frame, 101-67, and are 30-8 (.789) when leading after the first inning. Six times this season, the Reds scored at least 4 runs in the first.

Padres vs Reds is going to be a close one.

It’s Reds All-Star Luis Castillo, who is coming arguably the worst start of his career. Castillo (11-5) was saddled with the loss after allowing eight runs on nine hits while striking out three over 4.1 innings Friday night against the Cardinals. Castillo never settled into this one, surrendering one run in the first inning, followed by three in the second, two in the third and two more in the fifth. He struggled to keep the ball in the park, as seven of his eight runs allowed came via the long ball. He was leaving his fastball over the middle of the plate too often and it got clobbered. Despite an uncharacteristic outing, Castillo sports a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with a 175:61 K:BB over 148 frames in 2019.

In his last 30 appearances since Sept. 1, 2018, Castillo is 14-6 and in that span ranks third among all Major League starting pitchers with an ERA of 2.73. This season, he ranks among the National League leaders in wins (T7th), ERA (8th), strikeouts (6th) and strikeouts per 9 innings (5th, 10.64). In his career has allowed 13 HR in the first inning, his highest total in any inning and including 3 HR in the first frame this year. He has produced 8 starts in which he threw at least 5.0 innings while allowing 2 hits or fewer and 2 runs or fewer, a single-season franchise record.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.54
  • Hits: 8.43
  • Walks: 2.90
  • Strike Outs: 8.63
Defense
  • Runs: 4.37
  • Hits: 8.10
  • Walks: 3.37
  • Strike Outs: 9.64

Padres vs Reds MLB Betting Trends

  • Padres are 11-5 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Reds are 5-2 in Castillo’s last 7 starts during game 3 of a series
  • Under is 21-8-1 in Castillo’s last 30 starts overall
  • Padres are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National League
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games on the road
  • Reds are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played in August
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Padres vs Reds

San Diego Padres 3 – Cincinnati Reds 4

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