Phillies vs Cardinals MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction.

Phillies vs Cardinals MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on May 6, 2019

The game of the night in Major League Baseball Monday is a matchup of division leaders as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards are favored on the MLB Lines behind Miles Mikolas.

How to Bet Phillies at Cardinals MLB Odds & TV Info

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – May 6th Edition

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

This starts a stretch for the Phillies of 35 consecutive games outside of their NL East. They won’t play an interdivisional opponent until June 14 (at ATL) at which point they will then play 26 straight against the NL East From June 14-July 14.

Over their last 16 starts, the Phillies starting rotation has combined to post a 3.15 ERA (33 ER, 94.1 IP) while allowing 3 ER or fewer in 14 of those 16 contests. In that stretch, Philadelphia’s starters rank T-3rd among all ML staffs in innings pitched and their 3.15 ERA ranks 6th. The starting rotation is allowing hard contact (95 MPH+) just 32.1% of the time which is the 3rd-best hard-hit rate among all ML staffs behind only Tampa Bay (30.2%) and Washington (30.4%).

The Phillies, in games where Jean Segura collects at least one hit, are 12-5 this season. In games in which Segura has either gone hitless or not played, the Phillies are 7-9 (.438). Despite missing 10 games on the IL due to a hamstring strain, Segura still ranks T-4th among all NL players in 3-hit games (4) and T-7th in multi-hit games (13).

Since 8/16/18, the day he was recalled from Lehigh Valley, Hector Neris’ 44.8 % strikeout rate is second only to Josh Hader’s 49.7 % among all pitchers (min. 125 batters faced). Neris has largely taken over as the Phillies closer.

It’s Vince Velasquez (1-1, 2.73) on the bump. Velasquez had a 2.08 ERA through his first four starts before he ran into trouble last Tuesday against the Tigers. Detroit fouled off 30 pitches, running up Velasquez’s pitch count to 99 in 3 2/3 innings. Velasquez took the loss, allowing three runs. He struck out seven and walked three. The outing was by far the right-hander’s worst of the season, as he had yet to give up more than two runs in his previous four starts.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 5.21
  • Hits: 8.52
  • Walks: 4.24
  • Strike Outs: 9.09

Defense

  • Runs: 4.55
  • Hits: 9.48
  • Walks: 3.12
  • Strike Outs: 8.85

Why Bet on St. Louis?

St. Louis has activated reliever Luke Gregerson off the injured list. He pitched in 17 games for St. Louis last year and struggled to the tune of a 7.11 ERA but was very good in 2016. Gregerson had been out with a shoulder injury. To make room on the roster, the Cardinals optioned outfielder Tyler O’Neill to Triple-A Memphis. O’Neill was stuck behind Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Harrison Bader, and Dexter Fowler.

The Cardinals lead the National League in stolen bases. They had four on Saturday, the 2nd-most by a National League team in 2019, trailing only the Colorado Rockies who swiped five against the Padres on April 16. It marked the first time the Cardinals stole four or more bases since Sept. 14, 2017, vs. Cincinnati when Tommy Pham stole two and Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader each took one. A total of 11 Cardinals have stolen a base. The closest MLB team is the Indians with 10 and the Rockies in the N.L with eight players.

Phillies vs Cardinals is going to be a close one.

The Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas (3-2, 4.73) allowed seven hits and one walk while striking out four across six innings to earn the win Wednesday against the Nationals and their ace, Max Scherzer. Mikolas allowed eight baserunners but only one extra-base hit while recording one of his most effective starts this season. Though he hasn’t been able to replicate last season’s success, he has mostly avoided disastrous outings by going at least five innings in all seven of his starts and allowing no more than four earned runs since his Opening Day effort.

Mikolas has made one appearance vs. the Phillies as a member of the Cardinals starting at Citizens Bank Park (6/18/18), taking a no-decision pitching 5.0 innings allowing four runs in a 6-5 Cardinals loss. He also appeared in relief for one inning vs. the Phillies, allowing two runs on two hits as a member of the Padres bullpen in 2012. Mikolas has never pitched against the Phillies at Busch Stadium or in a home game.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 5.12
  • Hits: 9.06
  • Walks: 3.65
  • Strike Outs: 8.53
Defense
  • Runs: 4.47
  • Hits: 7.68
  • Walks: 3.76
  • Strike Outs: 8.97

Phillies vs Cardinals MLB Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 Monday starts
  • Phillies are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games against St. Louis
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 17 games
  • Cardinals are 6-0 in Mikolas’ last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record
  • Cardinals are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis’ last 6 games against an opponent in the National League conference

Expert Final Score Prediction for Phillies vs Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 5

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